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1. Climate and Development KPIs

Author:
Ian Mitchell and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
How committed are countries to tackling climate change at home and in developing countries? These tables provides nine key indicators on the world’s major economies spanning their climate contributions in three areas: emissions, policy, and international finance. Indicators are calculated to be comparable between countries with several expressed relative to population or economy size. Countries are ordered by the number of indicators on which they score in the best quartile, with indicators shaded for top quartile performance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. MENA and the Global Energy Conundrum

Author:
Rabah Arezki and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) is addicted to fossil fuels, but so too is the rest of the world economy. Solutions to the energy transition have thus to be found in a coordinated global shift in both the supply and demand for fossil fuels and clean(er) energy, where multilateral institutions can play an important role. These institutions could help bolster international technology transfers to MENA, as well as scale up investment and trade in clean energy to facilitate the global energy transition. Given the potential in MENA for solar power, the region could remain a global hub, this time for clean energy.
Topic:
Climate Finance, Economy, Fossil Fuels, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

3. Reforming the World Bank to Play a Critical Role in Addressing Climate Change

Author:
Pedro Albarran, Patricia Bliss-Guest, and Laura Tuck
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The current World Bank model focuses on reducing poverty and promoting equitable growth, while considering environmental and social sustainability. Programming of resources is country-driven, and resources are allocated to programs and investments according to priorities of client government authorities. Despite the appeal of this approach and its many benefits, it has left numerous global public goods (GPGs), particularly those related to climate change, underfinanced, undermanaged, and unachieved. The resulting limited levels of investment and programs have significant global cost and, potentially, extreme ramifications. While there has been considerable reflection on the question of mandate, as well as on options for improving financial engineering of the multilateral development banks (MDBs) to increase resources to better address GPGs, there has been little attention given to reforms and changes in the internal business model that would be required at an MDB like the World Bank if it were to implement a new global mission on climate change. This paper examines the changes in the internal business model that would allow the World Bank (or other MDBs) to better address climate change—and, with some adjustments, potentially, other GPGs.
Topic:
World Bank, Climate Finance, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia: A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal?

Author:
Annika Seiler, Hannah Brown, and Samuel Matthews
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are a novel approach to intensifying ongoing efforts toward carbon neutrality, combining country-led strategies to decarbonize the energy sector and addressing development priorities resulting from the ensuing structural transformation with focused, long-term, and plurilateral partnerships. The launches of the $8.5 billion JETP for South Africa in 2021 and the $20.0 billion JETP for Indonesia in 2022 provide momentum for this effort. However, the legacies of coal-based power and modest renewable energy deployment in both countries present key challenges in the areas of political economy, policy alignment, finance, and supply chain development. This paper consolidates available information about these two JETPs and analyzes the approaches taken by South Africa and Indonesia, with the aim of providing a thought framework for these JETPs. It seeks to identify risks and gaps that could obstruct these JETPs’ advancement and to assess whether these JETPs can serve as blueprints for other countries looking to accelerate their move away from coal. Further, this paper highlights complementary action that could enhance the effectiveness of these JETPs and guide the development of similar partnerships in the future. The paper finds that while the JETPs for South Africa and Indonesia appear to deliver a blueprint for moving away from coal in their respective contexts, barriers, risks, and gaps call into question whether the targets can be delivered at the planned pace and scale.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Renewable Energy, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, South Africa, and Southeast Asia

5. Forest-Based Carbon Markets: Pitfalls and Opportunities

Author:
Julián Cárdenas and Juan Jose Guzman Ayala
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Forest-based carbon markets could become an important source of income for countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Estimates indicate that under a high carbon prices scenario, the value of the forest-based carbon credit market could increase from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$25 billion per year by 2030. Apart from the climate and monetary benefits, forest based carbon markets also have pitfalls that must be avoided. Without the right institutions in place, at the national and local level, forest projects can generate negative externalities, such as population displacement, increases in food prices, and biodiversity degradation. The value chain in carbon credits involves a number of high value-added upstream and downstream activities that tend to take place outside the countries where the projects are located. Industrial policies are required for host countries to receive a higher share of the revenue stream, including in areas such as structuring, monitoring, verification, and surveillance. Countries need to promote actions in labor training, research and development, and access to long-term capital. The paper proposes the creation National Carbon Federations as institutions to resolve several market failures, while preventing conflict, ensuring adequate savings of the additional income, and strengthen democratic governance. These organizations can also provide key public goods, so that local communities benefit from the development of carbon credits from tropical forests.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, Forests, and Carbon Markets
Political Geography:
Latin America

6. Warming or Cooling on World Bank Climate Finance: What Drives Country Demand?

Author:
Clemence Landers, Karen Mathiasen, and Samuel Matthews
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The climate agenda has been a dominant feature of World Bank reform efforts, with President Banga aiming to both mobilize new resources and increase the proportion of total funding for climate-related projects. The stakes are high: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many borrowing countries are elevated and rising, dimming prospects for meeting the 2030 Paris Agreement target to limit warming to a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. To date, stakeholders have focused on how to mobilize new funding for climate mitigation reflecting an emphasis on the supply side (e.g., financing) of the agenda. But there has been little analysis on the demand side (or project pipeline). The assumption is that more money will generate more demand. But this does not necessarily follow. In this paper, we discuss major factors that will influence demand for climate mitigation projects, especially from the largest emitters of greenhouse gases (e.g., China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico). Our assessment is that factors like World Bank borrowing costs and access to alternative sources of finance will likely limit demand absent financial incentives, which could prove costly and difficult to resource at the scale needed to have meaningful impact. We also see a risk that these incentives could be used inefficiently absent a rigorous analysis to identify where they could have the most impact and a robust framework for assessing results.
Topic:
World Bank, Climate Finance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. More Than a Lightbulb: Five Recommendations to Make Modern Energy Access Meaningful for People and Prosperity

Author:
Todd Moss
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Energy is fundamental to modern life, but 1.3 billion people around the world live without “access to modern electricity.” The current definition of modern energy access—100 kilowatt-hours per person per year—is insufficient and presents an ambition gap with profound implications for human welfare and national economic growth. This report summarizes the energy access problem, the substantial efforts underway to bolster power generation and access in the poorest regions, and highlights concerns about the specific indicators being used to measure progress. It then condenses a set of analytical and conceptual questions the working group grappled with, such as why and how to better measure energy usage and the multiple options that should be considered. The report concludes with five recommendations for the United Nations, International Energy Agency, World Bank, national governments, major donors, and other relevant organizations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, and International Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus