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1. How Donors Can Better Support Urban Refugees in Kampala and Nairobi

Author:
Johnstone Kotut, Anneleen Vos, Helen Dempster, and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The majority of refugees worldwide live in urban areas. It is often assumed that these urban-based refugees are self-reliant, and therefore no longer require external support. This paper challenges this assumption by reviewing secondary literature on the experience of 136,887 refugees who live in Kampala, Uganda and the 96,348 refugees who live in Nairobi, Kenya. It identifies three distinct challenges that these urban-based refugees face compared to their camp- and settlement-based peers: access to essential services without recognised documentation, access to decent housing, and access to social and professional networks. It then reviews whether and how the largest bilateral and multilateral donors in Uganda and Kenya support urban-based refugees, and concludes by offering recommendations for those donors interested in expanding their support. While this paper and its recommendations have specific relevance for those urban-based refugees in Kampala and Nairobi, they have broader relevance to urban refugee populations in all low- and middle-income countries.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Donors
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

2. Constraints to Enhanced Revenue Mobilization and Spending Quality in Kenya

Author:
Nelson H.W. Wawire
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This study addresses constraints to enhanced revenue mobilization and spending quality in Kenya. The structure and growth of Kenya’s economy and spending quality have a bearing on its taxable capacity. Constraints to enhancement of revenue mobilization and spending quality include the existence of a large informal sector; inadequate information on property ownership; perceived corruption; inefficient use of public resources; political interference; volatile election cycles; abuse of tax incentives; uneven transfer pricing; illicit financial flows; and untaxed online businesses, coupled with poor administrative capacity and tax policy design. Policy implications on revenue performance are (1) the National Treasury and Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) should focus on property taxes and capital gains taxes to expand the tax base; (2) development partners are needed to direct technical assistance to the informal sector, to aid with transfer pricing, to monitor illicit financial flows, and to properly tax online businesses; (3) greater use of technology is needed to increase efficiency; (4) intervention by the Geospatial Information System is needed to link data on land and property ownership with tax information in the existing database; (5) a pay-for-results model needs to be deployed; (6) need to reduce tax expenditures; and policy reforms to be initiated in the agricultural sector. The policy implications on expenditure are (1) the need for efficient utilization of tax revenues; (2) the need for implementation of digital technologies; (3) the need to revisit an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) configuration; (4) the need to adhere to long-term planning; and (5) adoption of the GFS 2014 reporting standard. Overall, an independent entity needs to be established that will set budget ceilings, monitor budget implementation, and carry out audits.
Topic:
Governance, Revenue Management, Public Spending, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

3. Enhancing Young Children’s Language Acquisition through Parent-Child Book-Sharing: A Randomized Trial in Rural Kenya

Author:
Heather A. Knauer, Pamela Jakiela, Owen Ozier, Frances Aboud, and Lia C.H. Fernald
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Worldwide, 250 million children under five (43 percent) are not meeting their developmental potential because they lack adequate nutrition and cognitive stimulation in early childhood. Several parent support programs have shown significant benefits for children’s development, but the programs are often expensive and resource intensive. The objective of this study was to test several variants of a potentially scalable, cost-effective intervention to increase cognitive stimulation by parents and improve emergent literacy skills in children. The intervention was a modified dialogic reading training program that used culturally and linguistically appropriate books adapted for a low-literacy population. We used a cluster randomized controlled trial with four intervention arms and one control arm in a sample of caregivers (n = 357) and their 24- to 83-month-old children (n = 510) in rural Kenya. The first treatment group received storybooks, while the other treatment arms received storybooks paired with varying quantities of modified dialogic reading training for parents. Main effects of each arm of the trial were examined, and tests of heterogeneity were conducted to examine differential effects among children of illiterate vs. literate caregivers. Parent training paired with the provision of culturally appropriate children’s books increased reading frequency and improved the quality of caregiver-child reading interactions among preschool-aged children. Treatments involving training improved storybook-specific expressive vocabulary. The children of illiterate caregivers benefited at least as much as the children of literate caregivers. For some outcomes, effects were comparable; for other outcomes, there were differentially larger effects for children of illiterate caregivers.
Topic:
Children, Language, Rural, Parenting, and Reading
Political Geography:
Kenya

4. Learning Equity Requires More than Equality: Learning Goals and Achievement Gaps between the Rich and the Poor in Five Developing Countries

Author:
Maryam Akmal and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education include the goal that “all youth...achieve literacy and numeracy” (Target 4.6). Achieving some absolute standard of learning for all children is a key element of global equity in education. Using the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) data from India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that test all children of given ages, whether in school or not, on simple measures of learning in math, reading (local language), and English, we quantify the role of achieving equality between the richest 20% and the poorest 40% in terms of grade attainment and learning achievement toward accomplishing the global equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy for all children. First, excluding Kenya, equalizing grade attainment between children from rich and poor households would only close between 8% (India) and 25% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 8% (Uganda) and 28% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal literacy. Second, children from the poorest 40% of households tend to have lower performance in literacy and numeracy at each grade. If such children had the learning profiles of children from rich households, we would close between 16% (Pakistan and Uganda) and 34% (India) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 13% (Uganda) and 44% (India) of the gap to universal literacy. This shows that the “hidden exclusion” (WDR, 2018) of lower learning at the same grade levels—a gap that emerges in the earliest grades—is a substantial and often larger part of the equity gap compared to the more widely documented gaps in enrollment and grade attainment. Third, even with complete equality in grade attainment and learning achievement, children from poor households would be far from the equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy, as even children from the richest 20% of households are far from universal mastery of basic reading and math by ages 12-13. Achieving universal literacy and numeracy to accomplish even a minimal standard of global absolute equity will require more than just closing the rich-poor learning gap, it will take progress in learning for all.
Topic:
Development, Education, Sustainable Development Goals, and Language
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, India, Asia, and Tanzania

5. Digital Technology and State Capacity in Kenya

Author:
Njuguna Ndung'u
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Following the launch of M-Pesa in 2007, Kenya has emerged as a global leader in the development of mobile money and in increasing rates of financial inclusion. This paper shows how M-Pesa’s success has led to a series of endogenous innovations that have shaped Kenya’s digital space, placing it ahead of other developing economies in the region in the deployment and use of digital technology. It also explains how the mobile financial services revolution enabled the government to implement its e-governance strategy to better provide a range of services and opportunities to beneficiaries of public programs, business, taxpayers and investors, as well as dynamizing the private sector. At the same time, even as it contributes to strengthening state capacity, the digital revolution makes new demands on the state, and the paper outlines several important challenges that Kenya will need to address in order to further consolidate its success. These include improving connectivity across the country, ensuring a fully interoperable mobile payments platform and implementing measures to strengthen consumer protection. Another important focus for the future is to transition to a fully digital identification (e-ID) system. The thrust of the paper is to provide inspiration and guidance for other countries to use Kenya’s achievements as an example.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Innovation, Digital Policy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

6. Multilingual Assessment of Early Child Development: Analyses from Repeated Observations of Children in Kenya

Author:
Heather A. Knauer, Patricia Kariger, Pamela Jakiela, Owen Ozier, and Lia C.H. Fernald
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
In many low- and middle-income countries, young children learn a mother tongue or indigenous language at home before entering the formal education system where they will need to understand and speak a country’s official language(s). Thus, assessments of children before school age, conducted in a nation’s official language, may not fully reflect a child’s development, underscoring the importance of test translation and adaptation. To examine differences in vocabulary development by language of assessment, we adapted and validated instruments to measure developmental outcomes, including expressive and receptive vocabulary. We assessed 505 2-to-6- year-old children in rural communities in Western Kenya with comparable vocabulary tests in three languages: Luo (the local language or mother tongue), Swahili, and English (official languages) at two time points, 5–6 weeks apart, between September 2015 and October 2016. Younger children responded to the expressive vocabulary measure exclusively in Luo (44–59% of 2-to-4-year-olds) much more frequently than did older children (20–21% of 5-to-6-year-olds). Baseline receptive vocabulary scores in Luo (β = 0.26, SE = 0.05, p < 0.001) and Swahili (β = 0.10, SE = 0.05, p = 0.032) were strongly associated with receptive vocabulary in English at follow-up, even after controlling for English vocabulary at baseline. Parental Luo literacy at baseline (β = 0.11, SE = 0.05, p = 0.045) was associated with child English vocabulary at follow-up, while parental English literacy at baseline was not. Our findings suggest that multilingual testing is essential to understanding the developmental environment and cognitive growth of multilingual children.
Topic:
Development, Children, Linguistics, and Language
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

7. Measuring Rents from Public Employment: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Kenya - Working Paper 457

Author:
Justin Sandefur, Tessa Bold, and Nicholas Barton
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Public employees in many developing economies earn much higher wages than similar private-sector workers. These wage premia may reflect an efficient return to effort or unobserved skills, or an inefficient rent causing labor misallocation. To distinguish these explanations, we exploit the Kenyan government’s algorithm for hiring eighteen-thousand new teachers in 2010 in a regression discontinuity design. Fuzzy regression discontinuity estimates yield a civil-service wage premium of over 100 percent (not attributable to observed or unobserved skills), but no effect on motivation, suggesting rent-sharing as the most plausible explanation for the wage premium.
Topic:
Employment and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Kenya

8. Corruption and Averting AIDS Deaths

Author:
Willa Friedman
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the impact of corruption on the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs in preventing AIDS deaths and the potential channels that generate this relationship. This is based on a unique panel dataset of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which combines information on all imported antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) from the World Health Organization's Global Price Reporting Mechanism with measures of corruption and estimates of the HIV prevalence and the number of AIDS deaths in each year and in each country. Countries with higher levels of corruption experience a significantly smaller drop in AIDS deaths as a result of the same quantity of ARVs imported. This is robust to different measures of corruption and to a measure of overall death rates as well as HIV-specific death rates as the outcome. A case-study analysis of the Kenyan experience illustrates one potential mechanism for the observed effect, demonstrating that disproportionately more clinics begin distributing ARVs in areas that are predominantly represented by the new leader's ethnic group.
Topic:
World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

9. How Should Donors Respond to Resource Windfalls in Poor Countries?

Author:
Alan Gelb, Anton Dobronogov, and Fernando Brant Saldanha
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Natural resources are being discovered in more countries, both rich and poor. Many of the new and aspiring resource exporters are low-income countries that are still receiving substantial levels of foreign aid. Resource discoveries open up enormous opportunities, but also expose producing countries to huge trade and fiscal shocks from volatile commodity markets if their exports are highly concentrated. A large literature on the "resource curse" shows that these are damaging unless countries manage to cushion the effects through countercyclical policy. It also shows that the countries least likely to do so successfully are those with weaker institutions, and these are most likely to remain as clients of the aid system. This paper considers the question of how donors should respond to their clients' potential windfalls. It discusses several ways in which the focus and nature of foreign aid programs will need to change, including the level of financial assistance. The paper develops some ideas on how a donor like the International Development Association might structure its program of financial transfers to mitigate volatility. The paper outlines ways in which the International Development Association could use hedging instruments to vary disbursements while still working within a framework of country allocations that are not contingent on oil prices. Simulations suggest that the International Development Association could be structured to provide a larger degree of insurance if it is calibrated to hedge against large declines in resource prices. These suggestions are intended to complement other mechanisms, including self-insurance using Sovereign Wealth Funds (where possible) and the facilities of the International Monetary Fund.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ghana

10. Why Did Abolishing Fees Not Increase Public School Enrollment in Kenya?

Author:
Tessa Bold, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
A large empirical literature has shown that user fees signicantly deter public service utilization in developing countries. While most of these results reflect partial equilibrium analysis, we find that the nationwide abolition of public school fees in Kenya in 2003 led to no increase in net public enrollment rates, but rather a dramatic shift toward private schooling. Results suggest this divergence between partial- and general-equilibrium effects is partially explained by social interactions: the entry of poorer pupils into free education contributed to the exit of their more affluent peers.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa