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2. Women and the Future of Work: Fix the Present
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- There is a lot we don’t know about what automation will mean for jobs in the future, including its impact (if any) on gender inequality. This note reviews evidence and forecasts on that question and makes four main points: Past automation has been (broadly) positive for women’s average quality of life, economic empowerment, and equality. Forecasts of the gendered impact of automation and AI going forward based on the current distribution of employment suggest considerable uncertainty and a gender inequality of impact that is marginal compared to the potential impact overall. The bigger risk—and/or opportunity—is likely to be in the combined impact of automation, policy, and social norms in changing the type of work that is seen as male or female. Minimizing any potential aggravating impact of automation and AI on inequalities in economic power in the future can best be achieved by maximizing economic equality today.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Employment, Inequality, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Maximizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partnerships
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world is experiencing significant demographic shifts. By 2100, Europe’s working-age population will have declined, and sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will have greatly increased. Many of these new labor market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. Germany is one country piloting and implementing projects that can help alleviate such demographic pressures and maximize the potential mutual benefits of legal labor migration. We discuss these projects, and highlight differences in their potential impact on development in the country of origin. We recommend that European governments build on, adapt, and pilot-test one of Germany’s approaches, also known as the Global Skill Partnership model: training potential migrants in their countries of origin before migration, along with non-migrants. Ideally, governments should pursue such pilot-tests with those countries that exhibit rising future migration pressure to Europe, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Neither the conclusion nor the results of this analysis reflect the opinion of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) or Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Germany, and Sub-Saharan Africa
4. Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Ethan Lewis, and Hannah Postel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- An important class of active labor market policy has received little rigorous impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to improve the terms of employment for domestic workers by deliberately shrinking the workforce. Recent advances in the theory of endogenous technical change suggest that such policies could have limited or even perverse labor market effects, but empirical tests are scarce. We study a natural experiment that excluded almost half a million Mexican ‘bracero’ seasonal agricultural workers from the United States, with the stated goal of raising wages and employment for domestic farm workers. We build a simple model to clarify how the labor market effects of bracero exclusion depend on assumptions about production technology, and test it by collecting novel archival data on the bracero program that allow us to measure state-level exposure to exclusion for the first time. We reject the wage effect of bracero exclusion required by the model in the absence of induced technical change, and fail to reject the hypothesis that exclusion had no eect on US agricultural wages or employment. Important mechanisms for this result include both adoption of less labor-intensive technologies and shifts in crop mix.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Immigration, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
5. Shared Border, Shared Future: A Blueprint to Regulate US-Mexico Labor Mobility
- Author:
- Carlos Gutierrez, Ernesto Zedillo, and Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Mexico and the United States have lacked a bilateral agreement to regulate cross-border labor mobility since 1965. Since that time, unlawful migration from Mexico to the US has exploded. Almost half of the 11.7 million Mexican-born individuals living in the U.S. do not have legal authorization. This vast black market in labor has harmed both countries. These two neighboring countries, with an indisputably shared destiny, can come together to work out a better way. The time has come for a lasting, innovative, and cooperative solution. To address this challenge, the Center for Global Development assembled a group of leaders from both countries and with diverse political affiliations—from backgrounds in national security, labor unions, law, economics, business, and diplomacy—to recommend how to move forward. The result is a new blueprint for a bilateral agreement that is designed to end unlawful migration, promote the interests of U.S. and Mexican workers, and uphold the rule of law.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Affairs, Labor Issues, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- America and Mexico
6. Migration as a Strategy for Household Finance: A Research Agenda on Remittances, Payments, and Development
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Timothy N. Ogden
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- It is time to fundamentally reframe the research agenda on remittances, payments, and development. We describe many of the research questions that now dominate the literature and why they lead us to uninformative answers. We propose reasons why these questions dominate, the most important of which is that researchers tend to view remittances as states do (as windfall income) rather than as families do (as returns on investment). Migration is, among other things, a strategy for financial management in poor households: location is an asset, migration an investment. This shift of perspective leads to much more fruitful research questions that have been relatively neglected. We suggest 12 such questions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Immigration
7. Is It All About the Tails? The Palma Measure of Income Inequality
- Author:
- Alex Cobham and Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- There are normative or instrumental reasons why inequality may be said to matter (e.g. fairness and meritocracy). However, much global literature has taken an instrumentalist approach as to why high or rising inequality can hinder development. For example, Birdsall (2007) argues that income inequality in developing countries matters for at least three instrumental reasons: where markets are underdeveloped, inequality inhibits growth through economic mechanisms; where institutions of government are weak, inequality exacerbates the problem of creating and maintaining accountable government, increasing the probability of economic and social policies that inhibit growth and poverty reduction; and where social institutions are fragile, inequality further discourages the civic and social life that underpins the effective collective decision-making that is necessary to the functioning of healthy societies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
8. Remittances and Rashomon
- Author:
- Devesh Kapur and Randall Akee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Utilizing a novel data set on remittance data for India that matches household surveys to administrative bank data, we investigate the differences in self-reported and actual deposits to Non-Resident Indian (NRI) accounts. There is a striking difference between the perceived and actual frequency, as well as the amount of deposits, to NRI accounts. Our results indicate the presence of non-classical measurement error in the reporting of remittances in the form of deposits to NRI accounts. As a consequence, regression analyses using remittances as an explanatory variable may contain large upward biases instead of the usual attenuation of results under classical measurement error. Instrumental variables estimates are no better; the estimated coefficients from these regressions are more than three times the size of the OLS regression results. The results point to the need to more carefully check the accuracy of the international remittance flows. The wide discrepancies in the Indian case could be both because of inaccuracies in the household survey as well as mis-classification of the Balance of Payment data with some fraction of reported remittances being disguised capital flows (and hence likely to be less stable) rather than current account flows for family maintenance.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- South Asia
9. Globalization, Wages, and Working Conditions: A Case Study of Cambodian Garment Factories
- Author:
- Cael Warren and Raymond Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- We use a comprehensive data set of working conditions and wage compliance in Cambodia's exporting garment factories to explore (1) the impact of foreign ownership on wages and working conditions, (2) whether the relationship between wages and working conditions within these exporting factories more closely resembles efficiency wage or compensating differential theory, and (3) whether the wage-working conditions relationship differs between domestically owned and foreign-owned firms. We find that foreign ownership increases compliance on both wages and working conditions, contradicting the contention that higher wages in foreign-owned firms compensate workers for worse working conditions. In addition, we find a robust positive relationship between wages and working conditions in the sample as a whole, suggesting that efficiency wages or a similar theory more accurately explains the behavior of these exporting firms than compensating differentials.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia and Southeast Asia
10. Better Factories Cambodia: An Instrument for Improving Industrial Relations in a Transnational Context
- Author:
- Raymond Robertson and Arianna Rossi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Globalization of production has created an environment for labor-management relations that involves international actors and spans countries, going beyond the boundaries of the traditional workspace. The dramatic changes brought about by globalization led to the emergence of new cross-border forms of industrial relations. This paper analyses the case of the International Labour Organization's Better Factories Cambodia (BFC) project as a transnational instrument to create the institutional space for industrial relations in Cambodia. Based on the principle of social dialogue among the social partners (the national Government and workers' and employers' organizations) as well as with global buyers, BFC's multistakeholder approach reaches beyond the workplace and may be a key instrument of industrial relations because it bridges the gap between the sphere of production and that of consumption. The empirical results reveal some of the particular strengths of the program.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia and Southeast Asia