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12. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
- Topic:
- European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria
13. The economic impact of COVID-19 on Turkish-Azeri bilateral relations
- Author:
- Duncan Labadie
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- While the economic instability of the international system resurrected debates about the future of the World Order, diving against the current and studying in a destabilizing pandemic context a bilateralism touted for its durability and solidity seemed academically attractive. Thus, the purpose of this research paper is to verify whether COVID-19 is causing fatal economic disruptions among the iron alliances, or if on the contrary one is witnessing an "unnatural" strengthening. By reconciling empirical data (reports of the Central Bank, the OSCE, press articles) and academic papers, this study analyzes the surprising Turkish-Azeri economic consolidation before questioning its still-perceptible limitsin the short and long term. This work concludes that through the neorealist prism, Ankara and Baku managed to transform Covidian negativity into an element of strategic economic cooperation aimed at repairing financial loopholes on a national scale.
- Topic:
- Economics, War, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Liberalization, and Asymmetric Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Azerbaijan
14. FDI in Azerbaijan in 2021: Developments and Challenges
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Attracting foreign direct investment is now more important for Azerbaijan than ever before. Against the background of global uncertainty, the development of the non-oil sector and the diversification of the economy have become even more priority. On the other hand, there has been a decline in oil production in recent years, and even though high oil prices, the country's revenue from energy sales is lower than compared to the period before 2014.
- Topic:
- Oil, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
15. Potential Impacts of Sanctions against Russia on the Non-oil Exports of Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Eldayag Mustafayev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- By using statistical descriptive analysis, this article analyzes how the isolation of Russia from the international trade and finance system, as a result of the Western sanctions, will affect the Russian trade turnover and what type of future challenges and opportunities it may provide for the non-oil export base of Azerbaijan. In terms of the opportunities, Azerbaijan can further focus on its main non-oil export goods such as agricultural and chemical industrial products to capture an additional share in the semi-abandoned Russian market, along with considering possible competition pressure coming from the other non-western Russian trade partners. Re-exporting opportunities currently are limited in scale and have a risk of facing international sanctions and criticism.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Azerbaijan
16. How New Export Control Will Affect Food Security in Azerbaijan?
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing climate change and recent geopolitical tensions could spark a global food crisis with simultaneous disruptions to supply-chain systems that drive up the economic shock waves throughout the world. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the upsurge in the price of agricultural commodities and broken supply chains are undeniably vivid. Both countries are exporters of vital commodities such as wheat, oil, corn, sunflower oil and corn, and disturbances to production affect the import-reliant countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Geopolitics, Exports, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
17. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The past three decades of independence demonstrate that Russia remains a strategically economic and political partner, and multidirectional relations between two parties historically were of crucial importance. In the year 2021, total trade turnover between Russia and Azerbaijan accounted for 2.295 bln USD with a 12% upsurge recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Russia ranked as the 3hd largest trade partner of Azerbaijan in 2021 following Italy and Turkey and the share of trade with Russia alone made up 8.83% of the total in this period.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan
18. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 posed an unprecedented challenge to the World economy with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic shrinking the global GDP by 6,7 % and bringing worldwide severe economic repercussions. Economic recovery is in continuation process in which the non-hydrocarbon sector acts as the main driver with a strong contribution of the oil and gas sector as well coupled with the rising demand for, and price of, oil that can further strengthen overall economic performance, however risks in the scenario are vivid.
- Topic:
- Economy, Risk, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
19. Assessment of Azerbaijani 2022 State Budget in Context of COVID-19
- Author:
- Narmina Gasimova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The budget plan for 2022 envisages the primary goals for insurance of the economic growth in the upcoming year, emphasizing economic diversification as one of the key targets. Followed by the restoration of the liberated territories and recovery after the negative impact of the pandemic, the plan outlines a detailed analysis of fiscal policy forecasted for the year. An overview of the planned budget envisages the reliance of the economy on oil reserves and transfers obtained throughout it. To that end, approaches for further policies cover the creation of a favorable environment for the gradual replacement of oil revenues with non-oil revenues.
- Topic:
- Oil, Budget, Economic Growth, Diversification, COVID-19, and Revenue
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
20. On the brink of Subsequent Sanctions Against Russia Implications for Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In response to Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine and the scope of the current escalation against humanity and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, the European Council adopts the ninth package of new sanctions targeted to step up the existing pressure on Russia and its government. Since March 2014, the EU has progressively imposed prohibitive measures on Russia in this vein including individual sanctions, economic sanctions including energy, transport, and diplomatic sanctions of which multidimensional backgrounds are attributed to the illegal annexation of Crimea, Russia’s military attack on Ukraine and illegal annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the current year.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan