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1. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:
Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:
Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons

Author:
Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
Topic:
Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:
Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution

Author:
Andrés César
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
Topic:
Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Generative Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Labor Markets in Developing Countries: A Review Essay

Author:
Guillermo Cruces, Verónica Amarante, and Estefanía Lotitto
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The unprecedented developments in artificial intelligence technology and its recent widespread availability hold transformative potential to reshape global economic dynamics and labor markets, though opinions on its effects vary greatly. Transformative or not, the irruption of AI has sparked ample public discussion as well as the rapid development of theoretical and empirical approaches to understand it. This review essay discusses recent perspectives, theories, and empirical evidence on the matter, and adds a perspective of the implications of this technology and of the policy discussion it has sparked, from the perspective of developing countries’ economies. The latter is motivated by the relative scarcity of such perspectives in the current public debate, which seems to have minimized the potential effects on the interaction of labor markets between developing and developed countries, and on the potentially different within-country effects at different levels of development.
Topic:
Economic Development, Artificial Intelligence, Literature Review, Labor Market, and Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance

Author:
Guillermo Cruces, Dario Tortarolo, and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome distributions. We study the large-sample behavior of OLS estimators and cluster-robust variance estimators and show that (i) ignoring cluster heterogeneity may result in severely underpowered experiments and (ii) the cluster-robust variance estimator may be upward-biased when clusters are heterogeneous. We derive formulas for power, minimum detectable effects, and optimal cluster assignment probabilities. All our results apply to cluster experiments, a particular case of our framework. We set up a potential outcomes framework to interpret the OLS estimands as causal effects. We implement our methods in a large-scale experiment to estimate the direct and spillover effects of a communication campaign on property tax compliance. We find an increase in tax compliance among individuals directly targeted with our mailing, as well as compliance spillovers on untreated individuals in clusters with a high proportion of treated taxpayers.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Randomized Controlled Trials, Compliance, Spillovers, Cluster Experiments, and Two-Stage Designs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Quantile Regression with an Endogenous Misclassified Binary Regressor

Author:
Carlos Lamarche
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Recent work on the conditional mean model offers the possibility of addressing misreporting of participation in social programs, which is common and has increased in all major surveys. However, researchers who employ quantile regression continue to encounter challenges in terms of estimation and statistical inference. In this work, we propose a simple two-step estimator for a quantile regression model with endogenous misreporting. The identification of the model uses a parametric first stage and information related to participation and misreporting. We show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We also establish that a bootstrap procedure is asymptotically valid for approximating the distribution of the estimator. Simulation studies show the small sample behavior of the estimator in comparison with other methods, including a new three-step estimator. Finally, we illustrate the novel approach using U.S. survey data to estimate the intergenerational effect of mother’s participation on welfare on daughter’s adult income.
Topic:
Survey, Quantile Regression, Endogenous Treatments, Misclassification, and Social Programs
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

8. Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries

Author:
Maho Hatayama, Mariana Viollaz, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home.
Topic:
Employment, Pandemic, Job Creation, COVID-19, and Hospitality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Motherhood, Labor Market Trajectories, and the Allocation of Talent: Harmonized Evidence on 29 Countries

Author:
Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Dolores de la Mata, María Edo, Yarine Fawaz, Matilde P. Machado, and Mariana Marchionno
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In this paper we assess whether changes in labor market decisions upon motherhood lead to potential inefficient allocations of talent. Using an event study approach with retrospective data drawn from SHARE for 29 European countries we show that motherhood effects go beyond the well studied effects of labor market participation decisions: the arrival of the first child substantially affects the uptaking of alternative modes of employment, such as part-time and self-employment, that are characterized by flexible or reduced work schedules but also lower pay on average. We also show that the size of labor market responses to motherhood are larger in societies with more conservative social-norms or with weak policies regarding work-life balance. To assess the effects of motherhood over the allocation of talent, we explore how labor market responses to parenthood vary by alternative measures of talent or ability. We find that all women, even those with the highest level of ability and abler than their husbands face large motherhood effects, while men show virtually no changes in the labor market when becoming fathers. We also find that mothers who become self-employed after the birth of the first child are those that are less entrepreneurial-able according to cognitive ability and personality traits shown to impair business survival. Overall, our results suggest relevant changes in the allocation of talent caused by gender differences in nonmarket responsibilities that can have sizable impacts on aggregate market productivity.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Children, and Employment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina

Author:
Matias Ciaschi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using longitudinal data for Argentina, this paper measures the labor supply reaction of different household members to a breadwinner’s job loss. Firm events and local unemployment shocks are exploited as exogenous sources of variation to estimate the causal effect. Our main findings show that job loss by the male household head has a significant and substantial effect on the labor supply response of other household members, both at the extensive and intensive margin. While we do not find any effect on daughters, female partners and sons increase their labor market participation. The latter are also more likely to drop out from the educational system. These results are stronger among economically vulnerable households.
Topic:
Development, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Global Focus