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62. Iran’s Cyber Threat: Espionage, Sabotage, and Revenge
- Author:
- Colin Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Incidents involving Iran have been among the most sophisticated, costly, and consequential attacks in the history of the internet. The four-decade-long U.S.-Iran cold war has increasingly moved into cyberspace, and Tehran has been among the leading targets of uniquely invasive and destructive cyber operations by the United States and its allies. At the same time, Tehran has become increasingly adept at conducting cyber espionage and disruptive attacks against opponents at home and abroad, ranging from Iranian civil society organizations to governmental and commercial institutions in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. Russian Active Measures and Influence Campaigns
- Author:
- Eugene B. Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Deception and active measures in all their incarnations have long been and will remain a staple of Russia’s dealings with the outside world for the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Security, International Affairs, Elections, Democracy, and Post Truth Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
64. Coming Home? A Political Settlement in Syria Must Focus on Refugees
- Author:
- Maha Yahya and Jean Kassir
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A sustainable political settlement to end the multiple conflicts in Syria will not be possible without a real focus on the challenges of refugee returns. The complexities of the Syrian wars as well as previous international experiences with similar conflicts underscore that ensuring long-term peace requires a more focused attention on the challenges for effective repatriation of refugees and internally displaced persons, including significant security and protection guarantees. Without these, and irrespective of the eventual shape of a political solution, their return may be neither possible nor sustainable—with significant repercussions for peace in Syria, neighboring countries, and states beyond.
- Topic:
- War, International Security, and Refugee Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Syria
65. Egypt’s Secular Political Parties: A Struggle for Identity and Independence
- Author:
- Michele Dunne and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Secular political parties in Egypt have always been caught between an overbearing state and a largely Islamist opposition. The brief, chaotic political opening from 2011 to 2013 offered them unprecedented opportunities, but the violence and intense polarization that followed the military coup have put them under more pressure than ever. Formal politics in Egypt is now a tightly controlled game in which no real independence is allowed, but some secular parties might reemerge as contenders should there be another opportunity for free competition.
- Topic:
- Political Theory and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Egypt
66. Insecurity and Governance Challenges in Southern Libya
- Author:
- Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Southern Libya remains a region of endemic instability wracked by communal conflict, a shortage of basic services, rampant smuggling, and fragmented or collapsed institutions. The region has long existed on the periphery of Libya’s politics and international concerns—but that must change. Increasingly, the vacuum of governance in the south has drawn in political actors from northern Libya and outside states. Extremists seeking refuge in the south and migrants being smuggled through the region directly impact the security of Libya, neighboring states like Tunisia, and Europe.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and National Security
- Political Geography:
- Libya
67. Local Wars and the Chance for Decentralized Peace in Syria
- Author:
- Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For decades, the Assad regime rallied support and crushed dissent in Syrian society through mobilizing networks of local intermediaries. Since 2011, the varying relationships between the central authorities in Syria, these local inter- mediaries, and the country’s different localities have played a fundamental role in shaping the outbreak of protests and descent into armed conflict. While six years of war have left the state’s administrative structures in tatters, Bashar al- Assad’s regime has focused on maintaining, reviving, or renewing its network of local intermediaries to keep control in its areas and retake lost territory. However, the conflict has crucially and irreparably changed local politics in Syria, and a return to the pre-2011 status quo is impossible. For any negotiated settlement to be sustainable, these changes will need to be incorporated into a new, decentralized power-sharing bargain, which will shape Syria’s economic and physical reconstruction and postconflict recovery.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Civil War, and Political Power Sharing
- Political Geography:
- Syria
68. How Regional Security Concerns Uniquely Constrain Governance in Northeastern Syria
- Author:
- Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2012, when Bashar al-Assad’s regime withdrew most of its security forces from the Jazira in northeastern Syria, it ceded local power to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing. The PYD replicated past regime behavior, focusing on maintaining a secure hold of this strategic geographical area at the expense of effective governance. This approach has hindered the prospect of building a self-sustained administration. At the same time, outside actors such as Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, and the United States have inadvertently reinforced the PYD’s security-focused rule while pursuing their own security concerns. Exploring potential avenues to peace and stable governance in Syria requires carefully identifying the interrelated nature of these various actors’ security concerns in the Jazira.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Political Theory, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Syria
69. Toward A Nuclear Firewall: Bridging the NPT’s Three Pillars
- Author:
- Toby Dalton, Wyatt Hoffman, Ariel Levite, Li Bin, George Perkovich, and Tong Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- There is no clear, internationally accepted definition of what activities or technologies constitute a nuclear weapons program. This lack of definition encumbers nuclear energy cooperation and complicates peaceful resolution of proliferation disputes. A “nuclear firewall” could enhance the distinction between nuclear weapons–related activities and other non-weapons uses of nuclear technology. Applying a firewall framework for analyzing nuclear programs could improve international governance of nuclear technology and facilitate peaceful nuclear cooperation and disarmament. It could also expand the time and means available to key states and international bodies, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations Security Council, to diplomatically resolve impending proliferation crises.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Legislating Authoritarianism: Egypt’s New Era of Repression
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s new authoritarian regime is rapidly closing the public space—cracking down on autonomous civil society and independent political parties, asphyxiating the practice of pluralist politics, and thwarting citizens’ peaceful and active engagement in public affairs. The government’s primary strategy is to institute wide-scale repression through lawmaking and justify its behavior through conspiratorial and populist narratives. With unprecedented resolve, it has passed new protest and terrorism laws, introduced legal amendments targeting nongovernmental organizations, and extended the military court’s jurisdiction. Essentially, the regime is adapting lawmaking for its own purposes. To fight against the tide, those challenging the system need to fully understand how.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Egypt