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491. Fighting Terrorism: Lessons from the Cold War

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The war on terrorism, which the United States has now been compelled to undertake, will not greatly resemble traditional war. It will, however, have certain important similarities to the Cold War, or at least to those parts of that struggle which took place in what used to be called the third world. Like the struggle against communism, this will be a long, multifaceted struggle in which the terrorist groups must be combated, but so too must be the factors that impel much larger populations to give those groups support and shelter. As in the Cold War, U.S. military action will be only one element of U.S. strategy, and usually not the most important. As then, a central danger is that anti-Western forces will succeed in carrying out revolutions in important states, seizing control and turning them into more bases for anti- Western actions. It is therefore important that the United States plot its strategy with the Cold War's successes and failures clearly in mind.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

492. Revisiting the 12 Myths of Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
NEARLY TEN YEARS HAVE PASSED since the countries of Central Asia received their independence. This impending anniversary is a good opportunity to look at how these states are managing the state-building process, and in particular what symbolic or ideological defenses they are offering for their actions. States need little protection from their successes but are always seeking ways to explain away their various failures. This paper looks at the “myths” that the leaders of the five Central Asian states are using to explain away the very disappointing results in both economic and especially political reforms and shows how U.S. policy makers have bought into some of these myths as well.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Asia

493. The Internet and State Control in Authoritarian Regimes: China, Cuba, and the Counterrevolution

Author:
Shanthi Kalathil and Taylor C. Boas
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
It is widely believed that the Internet poses an insurmountable threat to authoritarian rule. But political science scholarship has provided little support for this conventional wisdom, and a number of case studies from around the world show that authoritarian regimes are finding ways to control and counter the political impact of Internet use. While the long-term political impact of the Internet remains an open question, we argue that these strategies for control may continue to be viable in the short to medium term.
Topic:
Communism, Government, Science and Technology, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

494. Are Russians Undemocratic?

Author:
Michael McFaul and Timothy J. Colton
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A NEW NARRATIVE ABOUT POST -S OVIET R USSIA is taking hold in policy, media, and academic circles and shows signs of entrenching as a new conventional wisdom. By this reading, Russia's experiment with democracy has flat-out failed. So misconceived and mismanaged were the political and economic reforms of the 1990s that they have fueled mass disenchantment with democratic norms and brought authoritarianism back into repute. Russians, in short, are said to be giving up on democracy.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

495. Pitfalls on the Road to Fiscal Decentralization

Author:
Vito Tanzi
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN PAST YEARS, the subject of fiscal decentralization interested mainly specialists—even though several countries, including the United States, came into existence through the political and economic integration of already existing political entities, such as states or principalities. Recently, however, fiscal decentralization has been attracting more general attention, largely because of pressures for greater fiscal decentralization in many countries around the world. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a range of issues related to fiscal decentralization, focusing in particular on possible alternatives to decentralization and various pitfalls that may be associated with it. Unlike much of the previous literature on the subject, therefore, this paper will pay less attention to the actual processes of decentralization and more on whether decentralization is the right direction for a country to choose.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

496. The Myth of Output Collapse after Communism

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
According to official statistics, output plunged in almost all Soviet-type countries toward the end of communism. Then in the first year of transition, the plunges turned even more dramatic, continuing for years. The total registered declines in GDP range from 13 percent in the Czech Republic from 1989 to 1992 to 77 percent in Georgia from 1989 to 1994. This collapse has been widely proclaimed as the worst depression in the industrialized world, exceeding the Great Depression of 1929–33. Both communist and post-communist statistics are deeply flawed, however—and in different ways.
Topic:
Communism and Economics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

497. Breaking the Labor-Trade Deadlock

Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper is an effort to shake loose the current policy logjam in the FTAA/ALCA* process and elsewhere over incorporating labor issues into trade agreements. It calls for the establishment of a work-study program to determine the desirability and viability of commencing negotiations on a hemispheric agreement aimed at securing adequate coverage and enforcement of internationally recognized labor standards.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance

498. The Election Matrix

Author:
Joseph Cirincione
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The selection of the next president will be important for U.S. policy on nuclear weapons, but not as decisive as some might think. If the Senate stays Republican, as expected, a great deal depends on which party controls the House of Representatives.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

499. START II Nears Ratification, Implementation Still at Risk

Author:
Jon Wolfsthal and Joseph Cirincione
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Seven years after President's George Bush and Boris Yelstin signed it, the Russian Duma is on the verge of ratifying the START II arms reduction treaty. The agreement, ratified by the United States Senate on January 26, 1996, would cut the number of U.S. and Russian deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 3,000-3,500.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

500. Human Capital and the Quality of Growth

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
T. W. SCHULTZ was ahead of his time, at least among economists. The earliest postwar models of development emphasized accumulation of physical capital, and saw spending on health and education as a drain on the accumulation of "productive" assets. But eventually, the newer classical growth models incorporated formally Schultz's insight, and related work on accounting for growth by Hollis Chenery and colleagues at the World Bank pointed to the contribution of more skilled workers with more human capital to increased productivity and growth. The more recent endogenous growth models are even more emphatic. Sustainable growth in these models is the result in part of positive externalities generated by education, an important form of human capital. In these models, the new ideas and new technologies that are critical to high sustained growth rely fundamentally on high levels of human capital.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
India