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341. Stabilizing Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:
William Maley
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan cannot be stabilized by quick fixes. The United States, NATO, and their allies need to make a sustained commitment for the long term. Instead of a simple “surge,” there needs to be a much clearer focus on bringing security to Afghans' daily lives. Only once this is achieved will Afghanistan's government have real reservoirs of legitimacy. Afghanistan has not been served well by its 2004 Constitution, which created a dysfunctional system of government that relies too much on the president alone. The United States should support systemic reforms, first through the development of an effective executive office to support the Afghan president. Counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan must take account of domestic socioeconomic complexities, and be based on long-term development projects that increase the returns from cultivating different crops. Serious thought needs to be given to encouraging more Muslim states to contribute personnel to support the promotion of human security and development in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to be pressured discreetly but very strongly to arrest the Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

342. Nuclear Renaissance: Is It Coming? Should It?

Author:
Sharon Squassoni
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Expectations for nuclear energy have grown dramatically. More than thirty nations now have plans to build nuclear power plants for the first time. A nuclear renaissance, however, is not a foregone conclusion. A major expansion would require significant policy and financial support from governments. Key questions need solid answers beforehand: Can nuclear power help reduce dependence on foreign oil or contribute significantly to needed reductions in carbon emissions? Is nuclear power economically competitive? Can safety be assured and is an acceptable solution for nuclear waste at hand? Can nuclear power be expanded in such a way as to adequately control the added risks of proliferation? To minimize some of the risks of nuclear expansion—whether related to economics, safety, security, or proliferation—the United States should consider several actions: help strengthen the rules of nuclear commerce and transparency, deemphasize the element of national prestige with respect to nuclear energy, help other countries undertake clear-eyed assessments of all available options for generating electricity, and limit the acquisition of sensitive nuclear technologies like uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

343. Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington and Moscow's failure to develop a working relationship could lead to a dangerous crisis—perhaps even a nuclear one. There is an immediate need to grab onto the superstructure of the relationship through the STA RT and CFE treaties, both of which require urgent action. A new architecture should follow that to broaden the relationship, including the creation of a new future for security in Europe. Both capitals need to devise a strategy as well as a mechanism to manage the relationship and prevent future crises. A commission of past presidents—U.S. and Russian—would have the authority to confront these monumental tasks.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Washington, Eastern Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

344. Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States Should Lead

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The next American president should emphasize the goal of a world without nuclear weapons and really mean it. The verification and enforcement mechanisms that would be required to achieve this would augment U.S. and global security at a time when the nuclear industry will likely expand globally. Without a clearer commitment to the elimination of all nuclear arsenals, non–nuclear-weapon states will not support strengthened nonproliferation rules, inspections, and controls over fissile materials. The accounting and control over nuclear materials that would be necessary to enable nuclear disarmament would greatly reduce risks that terrorists could acquire these materials. If nuclear deterrence would work everywhere and always, we would not worry about proliferation. If nuclear deterrence is not fail-safe, the long-term answer must be to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons to zero.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

345. Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although Tehran and Washington appear hopelessly divided, issues of broad mutual concern reveal important overlapping interests. The United States can more effectively support democracy and human rights in Iran with policies that facilitate, rather than impede, Iran's modernization and reintegration in the global economy. The next U.S. president should not immediately seek comprehensive engagement with Tehran, as this might enhance Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances of reelection in Iran's June 2009 presidential elections. The United States must deal with those who hold power in Tehran, namely Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Given the widespread mutual mistrust between Washington and Tehran, confidence should be built with negotiations on areas of common interest, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, rather than those of little or no common interest, such as the Palestinian–Israeli conflict or the nuclear issue. When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction, the record shows that “secret” or “private” discussions out of public earshot have a greater success rate. Building confidence in the public realm will be difficult, as politicians on both sides will likely feel the need to use harsh rhetoric to maintain appearances. It is imperative that Washington maintain a multilateral approach toward Iran, especially regarding the nuclear issue. Tehran is highly adept at exploiting rifts in the international community and diplomatic efforts to check Iran's nuclear ambitions will unravel if key countries approach Iran with divergent redlines. Powerful spoilers—both within Iran and among Iran's Arab allies—have entrenched economic and political interests in preventing U.S.–Iranian reconciliation.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, and Palestine

346. Islamists in Politics: The Dynamics of Participation

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Islamist parties and movements in Arab countries that have strategically chosen to participate in the legal political process, acknowledging the legitimacy of the existing constitutional framework, have gained great political importance. Their participation raises two major questions: are they truly committed to democracy? And will participation have a positive, moderating influence on their positions, pushing them to focus on public policy platforms rather than ideological debates?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

347. The Russian World—Changing Meanings and Strategies

Author:
Valery Tishkov
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Gorbachev's liberalization brought the opening of Russia to the outside world and with it interest in and contact with the Russian 1 diaspora. After the dis- solution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the problem of the diaspora evolved quickly, when it was transformed into a political and even a humanitarian challenge.
Topic:
Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

348. Saudi Arabia's “Soft” Counterterrorism Strategy: Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare

Author:
Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In the aftermath of a wave of deadly terrorist attacks that began in 2003, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia launched a wide-ranging counterterrorism campaign. Central to Saudi counterterrorism efforts has been the use of unconventional “soft” measures designed to combat the intellectual and ideological justifications for violent extremism. The primary objective of this strategy is to engage and combat an ideology that the Saudi government asserts is based on corrupted and deviant interpretations of Islam. The impetus for this soft approach came in large part from the recognition that violent extremism cannot be combated through tradition security measures alone. This Saudi strategy is composed of three interconnected programs aimed at prevention, rehabilitation, and post- release care (PRAC).
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

349. Turkey's Middle East Policies: Between Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism

Author:
Ömer Taspinar
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In what represents a remarkable departure from its policy of non-involvement, Turkey is once again becoming an important player in the Middle East. In recent years, Ankara has shown a growing willingness to mediate in the Arab– Israeli conflict; attended Arab League conferences; contributed to UN forces in Lebanon and NATO forces in Afghanistan; assumed a leadership position in the Organization of Islamic Conference and established closer ties with Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Islam, Nationalism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

350. International Labor Migration in a Globalizing Economy

Author:
Robert Lucas
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although migration has expanded less rapidly than either trade or direct investment, migration has become increasingly contentious. The immediate labor market impacts on host countries appear small and dynamic gains from induced technical progress remain undocumented. Circular migration from low-income countries offers a key safety valve where the home state fails to provide employment and security, but there are dangers from over-dependence on the migration–remittance nexus. The least-developed countries benefit only through south–south migration and are probably harmed by a rapidly expanding brain drain. Impact on sending countries: Remittances from migrants back to their home countries can promote rapid growth in developing regions, and the withdrawal of laborers can induce higher wages or less underemployment for those left behind. However, remittance flows can decline quickly and unexpectedly, as currently observed in Mexico. Migration of highly skilled workers can become problematic through "brain-drain" of talented healthcare workers and educators in developing regions.   Relationship between trade and migration: Subsidies in many industrialized countries often protect the sectors in which migrants seek work. There is little or no coherence between the trade and migration policies adopted by higher-income countries. Better internal coordination is necessary to reconcile the two agendas.   Policy implications: Many countries prefer a policy of temporary migration, in which migrants contribute to the local economy but depart before they become dependents. But such programs should be better managed, as reports of abuse and exploitation by recruiters and intermediaries become more common. Effective contracting schemes will require better oversight to improve worker conditions, increased transparency, and bilateral cooperation between the host and recipient nations. Lucas concludes:   "The net potential gains to migrants entering the industrialized countries are extremely high. Yet the impacts of any additional migrations on the incomes of those left at home and of natives in the host countries are more ambiguous. While migrants are clearly the big winners, others may even lose." Robert Lucas is a professor of Economics at Boston University. His research has included work on internal and international migration, employment and human resources, income distribution and inter-generational inequality, international trade and industry, the environment, and sharecropping.  He has served as chief technical adviser to the Malaysia Human Resource Development Program, and director of undergraduate studies and the M.A. program in Economics at Boston University. He is also a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center for International Studies. His latest book, International Migration and Economic Development: Lessons from Low-Income Countries, was published by Edward Elgar Press in 2005.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Migration