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241. The Future of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:
Mark Hibbs
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the first Indian nuclear explosive test in 1974, seven nuclear supplier governments were convinced that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) alone would not halt the spread of nuclear weapons—a view that developments in Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and elsewhere would later underscore. The seven governments formed the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and over the course of more than three decades, it has become the world's leading multilateral nuclear export control arrangement, establishing guidelines that govern transfers of nuclear-related materials, equipment, and technology. Yet, as a voluntary and consensus- based organization of 46 participating governments, the NSG today faces a host of challenges ranging from questions about its credibility and future membership to its relationship to the NPT and other multilateral arrangements.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, India, Asia, and North Korea

242. Global Rebalancing: The Dangerous Obsession

Author:
Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The current emphasis on global rebalancing—which aims to reduce trade deficits and surpluses—is misguided. Trade deficits and surpluses narrowed significantly during the Great Recession, can be financed and eased over time, and are largely the result of domestic forces—making further global rebalancing unlikely. The obsession with global rebalancing stokes currency and protectionist tensions and diverts attention from what is really needed—reforms at home. Rather than focusing on global rebalancing, countries should concentrate more on fixing their domestic problems and expanding their domestic demand at the maximum sustainable rate.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

243. China and the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review

Author:
Lora Saalman
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China is increasingly factored into U.S. nuclear strategy. When President Obama released the administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)—a document that guides America's nuclear policy, strategy, capabilities, and force posture for the next five to ten years—in April 2010, China was named 36 times. By contrast, China was barely mentioned in the last NPR completed in 2002. The United States expressed its desire to enhance strategic stability with China, but there needs to be a better understanding of how China perceives America's nuclear posture.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Israel

244. Policing the People, Building the State: Authoritarian Transformation in the West Bank and Gaza

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As rival governments in the West Bank and Gaza have sought to strengthen their respective Palestinian Authority Security Force (PASF) sectors in recent years, they have adopted very different approaches. The Fayyad government in the West Bank largely relies on financial and training support from the West, while the Haniah government of Hamas in Gaza, lacking significant outside help, has been forced to streamline its operations.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Foreign Aid, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza

245. (Re)Engaging Russia in an Era of Uncertainty

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Samuel A. Greene
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The rising costs of economic and political uncertainty in Russia are bringing a new, if tentative, willingness in Moscow to engage in real policy analysis. As it reels from a series of shocks, Russia risks falling further behind a world that is rethinking trade, security, nuclear nonproliferation, climate change, and other priorities. Western capitals seeking real engagement with Russia would do best to place relations with Moscow on an institutional, rather than a personal, footing. As the Kremlin struggles to formulate clear positions on emerging issues, Western policy makers must work with Russia's independent voices to ensure that the country's interests are duly represented at global policy tables.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

246. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth

Author:
S. Akbar Zaidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

247. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

248. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated. The annual debate over the use of the word genocide to describe the fate of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 has turned into an ugly bargaining process. It is time to take a longer view. President Obama should look ahead to the centenary of the tragedy in 2015 and encourage Turks to take part in commemorating the occasion.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

249. Millennium Challenge Corporation: Can the Experiment Survive?

Author:
John Hewko
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) was established in 2004 to provide grants to a select group of developing countries that demonstrate a commitment to good governance by investing in the health and education of their people and adopting sound economic policies. The MCC has performed admirably in the face of a number of challenges and unrealistic expectations, but its future success depends on its ability to address important philosophical and operational issues, and on Congress reforming the mechanisms by which it funds and judges foreign aid programs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States

250. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Islamist Participation in a Closing Political Environment

Author:
Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Muslim Brotherhood, the dynamic Islamist movement that has tried to navigate Egypt's semi-authoritarian system for over six decades, is facing a shrinking political space. For most of the past decade, the Brotherhood has expanded its political role, increasing from 17 to 88 members of Egypt's 620-member People's Assembly. Its success has brought increasing repression from the government. A range of measures have limited the Brotherhood's effective-ness in the People's Assembly, preventing it from forming a political party. This environment has led the movement to prioritize internal solidarity over parliamentary activities and refocus efforts on its traditional educational, religious, and social agenda. While the Brotherhood is unlikely to renounce politics altogether, the movement's center of gravity is shifting toward those who regard it as distracting, divisive, and even self-defeating.
Topic:
Islam and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt