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61. Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability

Author:
Julia Choucair
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

62. Evaluating Palestinian Reform

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN PALESTINE, CITIZENS HAVE RIGHTS OF FREE SPEECH and free assembly. The most independent judiciary in the Arab world adjudicates their disputes. Palestinians select their leaders freely in competitive elections overseen by an independent electoral commission. A representative assembly monitors the executive, granting and withholding confidence from ministers and reviewing the state budget in detailed public discussions. Elected councils manage local governments that are fiscally autonomous of the center.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

63. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program

Author:
Micheal D. Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ONE OF THE TWO PLACES in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays. The PRC insists that Taiwan is a part of China and asserts that the island must one day be reunited with the mainland. Until the early 1990s, the ROC government also viewed Taiwan as an integral part of China and insisted on eventual reunification, albeit under the Chinese Nationalist flag. But in recent years, with democratization opening the system to native Taiwanese, public support for independence has grown, as has the alarm in Beijing. As tensions have grown and the prospect of the resumption of a cross-Strait understanding regarding Taiwan's status has become more remote, stability has depended primarily on military deterrence. For China, such deterrence aims to prevent the final consolidation of Taiwan's separate status. For Taiwan (and the United States), it aims at preventing China from using force to compel reunification on Beijing's terms.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

64. Islamists in the Arab World: The Dance Around Democracy

Author:
Graham E. Fuller
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
ARE ISLAM AND DEMOCRACY COMPATIBLE? And are Islamists willing to accept a democratic order and work within it? Debate has swirled around these two grand questions for decades and has produced a broad variety of responses, often quite polarized. Whatever we may think about Islamists, the topic matters vitally because in the Middle East today they have few serious ideological rivals in leading opposition movements against a failing status quo. These Islamist movements are characterized by rapid growth, evolution, change, and diversification. In the Arab world the only ideological competition comes from Arab nationalism, the left, and liberal democracy, in diminishing order of size and importance. More significantly, since the Al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001, and the declaration of the Bush administration's war on terrorism, Arab nationalists and the left increasingly share a common cause with the Islamists in the face of growing political confrontation with the United States. This rising hostility shows no abatement as yet and permits political Islam (Islamism) to gain ever greater ground.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

65. WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications

Author:
George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews, and Alexis Orton
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
If history is any guide, the war and subsequent occupation and reconstruction of Iraq will shape U.S. relations with the Arab world—and perhaps with the whole Muslim world—for decades, just as prior military occupations altered U.S. relations with Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. What happens in Iraq is also likely to profoundly affect whether and with what degree of effort and success states choose to work together to constrain the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The war and its aftermath will affect U.S. foreign relations, influence U.S. policies regarding future armed interventions, and alter the international struggle against terrorism. It is a massive understatement, then, to say that a great deal is at stake, on the ground in Iraq, around the world, and in the lessons for the future that will be drawn here at home.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arabia, Latin America, and Caribbean

66. Beyond Arms Control: How to Deal with Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Nuclear arms control is often considered not worth the effort now that the Cold War is over. But the nuclear threat is anything but over. Several thousand strategic nuclear weapons remain on hair-trigger alert in U.S. and Russian arsenals. Many more are insecurely stored. Though the arms control problem needs to be faced by both countries, neither one has the stomach for another Cold War–style, 500-page treaty like START I. The new model is the 2002 Moscow Treaty—a simple, three-page commitment to reduction. Such short treaties now make sense because both countries have many ways to know what is going on inside each other's nuclear arsenal. START I is still very important, but it is no longer the only tool in the box. Today, Washington and Moscow can relegate negotiated treaties to a few essential fronts and pursue exciting, innovative arms control efforts involving threat reduction and technical cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, Washington, and Mexico

67. Democratic Mirage in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Thomas Carothers, Amy Hawthorne, and Daniel Brumberg
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The increasingly popular idea in Washington that the United States, by toppling Saddam Hussein, can rapidly democratize Iraq and unleash a democratic tsunami in the Middle East is a dangerous fantasy. The U.S. record of building democracy after invading other countries is mixed at best and the Bush administration's commitment to a massive reconstruction effort in Iraq is doubtful. The repercussions of an intervention in Iraq will be as likely to complicate the spread of democracy in the Middle East as promote it. The United States has an important role to play in fostering democracy in the region, but the task will be slow and difficult given the unpromising terrain and lack of U.S. leverage over key governments.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Middle East

68. America's New Alliance with Pakistan: Avoiding the Traps of the Past

Author:
Husain Haqqani
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Pakistan has become a strategic U.S. ally in the war against al Qaeda. For now, Washington's support of General Pervez Musharraf's military regime is untempered by any insistence on the restoration of democracy. But military rule is likely to increase hostility between Pakistan and India and undercut efforts to root out Islamic extremists, who have been the armed forces' political allies in the past.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, and Washington

69. September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change

Author:
Jessica T Mathews
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For such a short period, the changes wrought by the events of 9/11 have been immense. It is too soon for judgments of historic import, though. At such a near distance one is tempted to over-ascribe cause and effect, to ignore roots of change that reach farther back, and to overlook unrelated developments of deep importance. And in the sense that “9/11” means the attacks and their aftermath, it is still unfolding. Its eventual significance will depend on future events and policy choices, key among them indicated here. Still, it is revealing to see the global upheaval at a glance, even if a report at this date should be thought of as only pencilled in.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

70. Enhancing Nuclear Security in the Counter-Terrorism Struggle: India and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller and Rebecca Longsworth
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THIS PAPER REPORTS THE RESULTS OF A STUDY of the potential to apply the principles and practice of threat reduction cooperation to countries beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union. The study, which was funded by the MacArthur Foundation, focused on the application of concepts and tools used in the former Soviet Union to the region of South Asia. The research was designed to explore what might be done cooperatively to enhance the security of the nuclear assets of India and Pakistan, lest they fall into the hands of terrorists or leaders of rogue states who would use them to threaten other states or peoples.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union