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51. Palestine and Israel: Time for Plan B

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The international effort to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has come to a dead end, at least for the present. Things can—and might well—get worse unless the United States and other outside actors couple a realistic view of the present with a serious effort to push for a more promising future. The first step in a new diplomatic approach must be to establish a cease-fire that builds on the common interest of both Israel and Hamas to avoid fighting in the short term. A new cease-fire should be clear and perhaps even written; mediators (whether Arab or European) must be willing to make an agreement more attractive to both sides to sustain (Hamas can be enticed by some opening of the border with Egypt; Israel will demand serious efforts against the supply of arms to Hamas). The second step must be an armistice that would offer each side what they crave for the present—Israel would get quiet and a limit on arms to Hamas; Palestinians would get open borders, a freeze on settlements, and an opportunity to rebuild their shattered institutions. Such an armistice must go beyond a one-year cease-fire to become something sustainable for at least five to ten years. Finally, the calm provided by the armistice must be used to rebuild Palestinian institutions and force Palestinians and Israelis to confront rather than avoid the choices before them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

52. "Fixing Broken Windows": Security Sector Reform in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As they emerge from conflict, states can rarely commence the arduous task of reconstruction and consolidate their governments until they undertake extensive restructuring of their security forces. Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen are all fractured, quasi-democratic states with divided societies, and deep disagreement over what constitutes the national interest. Successful reform in each will require security institutions that answer to democratically-elected civilian leaders, but the U.S. and European approach has thus far focused largely on providing military training and equipment, targeted toward counterterrorist capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Lebanon

53. The United States and India 3.0: Cave! Hic Dragones

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and India share the fundamental objective of preserving an Asia that is peaceful, prosperous, and free. Without security, India's meteoric rise cannot continue. While New Delhi can manage Pakistan, its longtime regional adversary, it will have more difficulty confronting the challenges posed by a rising China. As a result, India will continue to depend on the United States to preserve order in Asia until it can protect its own interests there.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, China, India, and Asia

54. Middle East Democracy Promotion Is Not a One-way Street

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. administration is under pressure to revive democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East, but momentum toward political reform has stalled in most of the region. Opposition parties are at low ebb, and governments are more firmly in control than ever. While new forms of activism, such as labor protests and a growing volume of blogging critical of government and opposition parties have become widespread, they have yet to prove effective as means of influencing leaders to change long-standing policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

55. Manmohan Singh Visits Washington: Sustaining U.S.–Indian Cooperation Amid Differences

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India's Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, will come to Washington on November 24, 2009, for the first state visit hosted by President Barack Obama. This event will be widely viewed as evidence of the importance attached to maintaining the upward trajectory in U.S.–Indian relations. By all accounts, the two leaders have already established a good working relationship—something skeptics feared was impossible given the prime minister's warm regard for President George W. Bush and the differences between Bush and Obama on many issues involving India. The global economic crisis, however, appears to have enhanced the personal collaboration between the two leaders, as many of Singh's ideas for stimulating the global revival have been backed by Obama in various forums, including most recently at the Group of Twenty's summit in Pittsburgh.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Climate Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and India

56. Iran, the United States, and the Gulf: The Elusive Regional Policy

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Any effective diplomatic approach to Iran must involve a regional strategy. While Iran's nuclear program is presently the most urgent dimension for the United States and the international community to confront, unless the country can be reintegrated into a normal web of international relations, any progress made on that front is likely to be short-lived. Iran's neighbors — particularly the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which share a concern for Gulf security — can be important players in that process of reintegration. These six states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, are afraid of Iranian hegemony in the Gulf, but are too small or too timid to challenge their northern neighbor, so they seek to develop normal relations with Tehran while protecting their interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Kuwait, Tehran, Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman

57. Five Alternatives that Make More Sense than Offshore Oil

Author:
Whitney Leonard
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Foreign oil currently fuels 55 percent of all transportation in the United States. As it struggles to reduce its dependence on foreign oil, the United States will have to completely rethink its energy policies. Instead of replacing imported oil with domestic oil, extracted at high environmental costs from new rigs offshore and across the western states, the country could opt for cleaner alternatives like higher fuel economy standards, hybrid-electric vehicles, plugin hybrids, cellulosic ethanol, and new commuting patterns. By decreasing demand rather than increasing supply, energy alternatives could reduce or eliminate the need to expand offshore oil production. This paper explores the economic and environmental costs of offshore oil and investigates a range of cleaner energy options.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

58. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The run-up to the announcement of President Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy provoked a flurry of "new solutions" to the conflict. Promoting reconciliation with the Taliban is one idea that has reappeared—even in the administration's own White Paper on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. While this notion would rightly have been considered ridiculous a few years ago, many in Europe and the United States obviously believe that stabilizing Afghanistan may require just that. In fact, it would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban

59. Turkey's Perspectives on Nuclear Weapons and Disarmament

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In principle, Turkey would welcome the global elimination of nuclear weapons. For the current government, the possession of nuclear weapons by other states is a factor that, indirectly at least, reduces Turkey's regional (if not global) aspirations and power. However, in the medium term, it remains deeply ambivalent on the future of nuclear weapons and its own plans regarding nuclear energy and weapons development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, and Germany

60. Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
President Obama and his foreign policy team are only just starting to confront the challenge of reformulating U.S. democracy promotion policy. Crucial to any such effort will be revitalizing democracy assistance, a domain that has expanded greatly over the past 25 years but risks not adapting adequately to meet the challenges of the new landscape of democratic stagnation in the world. As the largest source of U.S. democracy assistance, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is a natural starting point for such a process of revitalization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States