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121. Women's Rights and Democracy in the Arab World

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS MADE THE PROMOTION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS and the empowerment of women a central element of its new campaign to modernize and democratize the Arab world. The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), the major program through which the United States seeks to facilitate the transformation of the Arab world, makes women's rights one of its priorities. No official U.S. speech about reform in the Middle East fails to mention the cause of women's rights. And the issue of women is sure to be raised at meetings where Middle East affairs are discussed, regardless of the main purpose of the gathering.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

122. Assessing America's War on Terror: Confronting Insurgency, Cementing Primacy

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the 1990s the United States and its allies enjoyed a much sought-after period of prosperity and tranquility following the end of the Cold War. In hindsight, however, it is now apparent that Al Qaeda, a fiercely anti-American global terrorist network, was taking root in over sixty countries during this period, culminating in the devastating September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The Bush administration, which had entered office determined to secure U.S. primacy amid the emergence of major power centers in Asia, such as China, soon found itself forced to confront a worldwide Islamist insurgency. This study analyzes the relevance of terrorist groups as substatal actors in international politics, their influence on deeper dynamics of the international system, and the challenges facing the United States posed by transnational terrorist organizations. It argues that international terrorism, although currently salient, does not necessarily replace or even alter the traditional concerns of international politics, but rather subsists among them. On balance, the United States has managed these interlocking challenges with partial success, and needs to pay greater attention to pursuing the legitimacy and protecting the economic foundations of its power. Failing to do so, or waging a poorly defined “war against all,” carries the risk of far-reaching economic and political reverberations that may, in the not-too-distant future, enervate the United States, undermine its legitimacy as the sole superpower, and gradually erode continued American dominance in the world order.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
United States, China, New York, Washington, Middle East, and Asia

123. Integrating Democracy Promotion Into U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
BETWEEN 2002 AND 2004, THE UNITED STATES ACCORDED new prominence to political and economic reform and democratization as policy goals in the Middle East. Continuing that trend and translating rhetoric into effective strategies both depend on whether reform and democratization become fully integrated into the U.S. policy agenda in the region. Can the United States promote change at the risk of instability in the region while it remains dependent on petroleum from Arab countries? Can it pursue Arab–Israeli peace and democratization at the same time? Can the United States still secure needed military and counterterrorism cooperation if it antagonizes friendly regimes by promoting democratization as well? Is it feasible for the United States to promote democratization effectively amid widespread grievances against the war in Iraq and serious questions about U.S. human rights practices there and in Afghanistan?
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

124. Islamists in the Arab World: The Dance Around Democracy

Author:
Graham E. Fuller
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
ARE ISLAM AND DEMOCRACY COMPATIBLE? And are Islamists willing to accept a democratic order and work within it? Debate has swirled around these two grand questions for decades and has produced a broad variety of responses, often quite polarized. Whatever we may think about Islamists, the topic matters vitally because in the Middle East today they have few serious ideological rivals in leading opposition movements against a failing status quo. These Islamist movements are characterized by rapid growth, evolution, change, and diversification. In the Arab world the only ideological competition comes from Arab nationalism, the left, and liberal democracy, in diminishing order of size and importance. More significantly, since the Al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001, and the declaration of the Bush administration's war on terrorism, Arab nationalists and the left increasingly share a common cause with the Islamists in the face of growing political confrontation with the United States. This rising hostility shows no abatement as yet and permits political Islam (Islamism) to gain ever greater ground.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

125. WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications

Author:
George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews, and Alexis Orton
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
If history is any guide, the war and subsequent occupation and reconstruction of Iraq will shape U.S. relations with the Arab world—and perhaps with the whole Muslim world—for decades, just as prior military occupations altered U.S. relations with Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. What happens in Iraq is also likely to profoundly affect whether and with what degree of effort and success states choose to work together to constrain the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The war and its aftermath will affect U.S. foreign relations, influence U.S. policies regarding future armed interventions, and alter the international struggle against terrorism. It is a massive understatement, then, to say that a great deal is at stake, on the ground in Iraq, around the world, and in the lessons for the future that will be drawn here at home.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arabia, Latin America, and Caribbean

126. The Hinge to Europe: Don't Make Britain Choose Between the U.S. and the E.U.

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The vital U.S. relationship with Britain is much more fragile than many Americans think. Thanks to the Bush administration policy on a range of issues, hostility to the United States among the British public is higher than it has been since the Vietnam War. Only the personal commitment and moral courage of Tony Blair made British participation in the Iraq War possible—and the result has been seriously to endanger his leadership at home. Above all, Americans must understand that the strategy of this British government, and of the British foreign policy establishment in general, is to avoid having to make a definitive choice between Britain's alliance with the United States and its place in the European Union. If Washington forces Britain to choose between the two, it may not choose the United States, and a collapse of the relationship with Britain would leave the United States without a single major Western ally. The consequences for U.S. power and influence in the world would be nothing short of disastrous.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, America, Europe, and Vietnam

127. Political Reconstruction in Iraq: A Reality Check

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Judith Yaphe
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration's plans for post-Saddam Iraq beyond the initial occupation remain uncertain. In developing those plans, the administration needs to take a hard look at the reality of the country. Iraq is not a political blank slate, to be transformed at American will into a democratic, secular, pluralist, and federal state. Instead, it is a difficult country with multiple social groups and power centers with conflicting agendas. Some of these, such as the intelligence and security services, will be replaced with new versions acceptable to the United States and the future government. The top echelons of the military, government ministries, and the Ba'th Party will be eliminated. Other power centers, however, will remain, adding to the problems of reconciling rival ethnic and religious factions as well as internally and externally based opposition elements.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

128. Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Michael Swaine
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A remarkable improvement has taken place in U.S.–China relations during the past fourteen months, largely as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Both sides have developed strong incentives to downplay their differences and seek common ground in a variety of areas, particularly the struggle against terrorism. If properly managed, this situation could lead to a more stable, mutually beneficial relationship during the next several years. However, the major obstacle to reaching this objective remains the Taiwan issue, which continues to exhibit highly destabilizing trends. In particular, political and social dynamics on Taiwan, Beijing's steady accumulation of military power, and the rapidly deepening U.S.–Taiwan security relationship could combine to increase the likelihood of conflict within the next five to seven years. To avoid this, and to establish a more sustainable basis for improved U.S.–China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions across the Taiwan Strait.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

129. Strengthening Linkages Between U.S. Trade Policy and Environmental Capacity Building

Author:
John Audley and Vanessa Ulmer
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
ATTENTION TO TRADE-RELATED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE and capacity building (TCB) has surged as people from all walks of life explore how the global trade regime can be structured to better promote equitable, sustainable human development. TCB strengthens developing countries' human, physical, and institutional capacities to participate in trade negotiations, implement trade commitments, and benefit from integration into the global trading system. Given the Bush administration's goal to “ignite a new era of global economic growth through free markets and free trade,” capacity building has become an important component of U.S. bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:
Environment and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

130. Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As part of the changed U.S. geostrategic outlook arising from the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the Bush administration is giving greatly heightened attention to the issue of promoting democracy in the Middle East. Although a policy of coercive regime change has been applied in Iraq, in most of the region the administration is pursuing a more gradualist model of political change that emphasizes diplomatic pressure and democracy-related aid.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East