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41. Arab Monarchies: Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Marwan Muasher
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Contrary to what ongoing protests across the Middle East and North Africa might imply, monarchs and ruling families in the Arab world still enjoy an extraordinary degree of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most citizens of Arab monarchies want to see changes within their ruling governments, not complete regime change. This in turn affords those rulers an opportunity to embark on a path of far-reaching political reform without losing their thrones—all the while gaining acclaim at home and abroad.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

42. From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

43. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future

Author:
Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

44. Policing the People, Building the State: Authoritarian Transformation in the West Bank and Gaza

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As rival governments in the West Bank and Gaza have sought to strengthen their respective Palestinian Authority Security Force (PASF) sectors in recent years, they have adopted very different approaches. The Fayyad government in the West Bank largely relies on financial and training support from the West, while the Haniah government of Hamas in Gaza, lacking significant outside help, has been forced to streamline its operations.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Foreign Aid, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza

45. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Islamist Participation in a Closing Political Environment

Author:
Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Muslim Brotherhood, the dynamic Islamist movement that has tried to navigate Egypt's semi-authoritarian system for over six decades, is facing a shrinking political space. For most of the past decade, the Brotherhood has expanded its political role, increasing from 17 to 88 members of Egypt's 620-member People's Assembly. Its success has brought increasing repression from the government. A range of measures have limited the Brotherhood's effective-ness in the People's Assembly, preventing it from forming a political party. This environment has led the movement to prioritize internal solidarity over parliamentary activities and refocus efforts on its traditional educational, religious, and social agenda. While the Brotherhood is unlikely to renounce politics altogether, the movement's center of gravity is shifting toward those who regard it as distracting, divisive, and even self-defeating.
Topic:
Islam and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

46. From Violence to Moderation: Al-Jama'a al-Islamiya and al-Jihad

Author:
Sarah Grebowski and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Recognition by Egypt's leading Jihadists that violence has failed to achieve political change and in fact has been counterproductive has led them to a remarkable change of course.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

47. The Political Challenge of Yemen's Southern Movement

Author:
Stephen Day
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Three opposition groups within Yemen are undermining that country's stability. The newest, called the Southern Movement, has been less militant than al-Qaeda or the al-Huthi rebels on the northern border with Saudi Arabia. It began in 2007 and used peaceful means to seek redress of problems rooted in the troubled unification of North and South Yemen in 1990. The creation of the new state has meant problems for residents of the South: issues of national identity, economic grievances, and concerns over access to political power.
Topic:
Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

48. What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
News that the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda elements in Yemen prompted questions of whether the fractious Arab state might give rise to a Taliban-style regime. For its part, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has stated its intent to achieve “our great Islamic project: establishing an Islamic Caliphate” but it is vulnerable to the threat that Yemen's tribes may ultimately find its presence a liability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Taliban, Yemen, and Arabia

49. Exploiting Grievances: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Alistair Harris
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an offshoot of Osama Bin Laden's terrorist network and a group that has been operating in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, presents a growing regional and international security challenge. Analysis of AQAP confirms that it has been adept at aligning the grievances of Yemeni communities with its own narrative of what is wrong and who is responsible. But AQAP's limited membership shows this has not translated into widespread recruitment because of dissonance between the organization's recommended course of action—violent jihad—and traditional Yemeni methods of seeking redress. Failure to address such grievances, however, runs the risk of increasing receptivity to alternative frameworks that include the use of violence.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

50. The Arab State: Assisting or Obstructing Development?

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Good governance is key to improving peoples' lives; but the Arab world falls short on many governance indicators. Most Arab states remain highly authoritarian, although there is a growing dynamism in civil society and among opposition parties, both secular and Islamist. Problems in governance have impeded development in the Arab world and limited the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries