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11. The Summer of Our Discontent: Sects and Citizens in Lebanon and Iraq

Author:
Maha Yahya
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Lebanon’s and Iraq’s political systems are based on sectarian and ethnic power-sharing. In summer 2015, both countries faced popular protests demanding better governance. These protests began over poor service provision but escalated into opposition to the countries’ overarching power-sharing systems. These demonstrations were framed as nonsectarian, civic responses to deteriorating conditions and corrupt leadership. While protestors raised hopes that change was possible, their curtailment by the sectarian leadership underlined the challenges of political transformation in divided societies.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Middle East

12. The Assad Regime’s Hold on the Syrian State

Author:
Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the early days of the Syrian uprising in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has made it a priority to keep state agencies running, allowing Assad to claim that the regime is the irreplaceable provider of essential services. Breaking the regime’s monopoly on these public services and enabling the moderate opposition to become an alternative source of them would weaken the regime and prevent the radical jihadist Islamic State from emerging to fill power vacuums across the country.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, Islam, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

13. The Islamic State’s Strategy: Lasting and Expanding

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The self-proclaimed Islamic State is a hybrid jihadist group with a declared goal of establishing a “lasting and expanding” caliphate. Its strategy for survival and growth blends military, political, social, and economic components. Yet the U.S.-led international intervention against it has largely been limited to air strikes. The gaps in the international coalition’s approach as well as deep sectarian divisions in Iraq and the shifting strategies of the Syrian regime and its allies are allowing the Islamic State to continue to exist and expand.
Topic:
Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

14. Crumbling States: Security Sector Reform in Libya and Yemen

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Already-weak states in Libya and Yemen crumbled as struggles for control over their security sectors became central to transitional politics after the popular uprisings of 2011. Instead of being reformed and upgraded to enhance the fragile legitimacy of interim governments, the security sectors collapsed by 2014. Libya and Yemen are now caught in a vicious circle: rebuilding effective central states and cohesive national identities requires a new consensus on the purpose and governance of security sectors, but reaching this agreement depends on resolving the deep political divisions and social fractures that led to civil war in both countries.
Topic:
Security, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

15. Jordan’s Refugee Crisis

Author:
Alexandra Francis
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated endemic political, economic, and resource challenges in Jordan. As the conflict in Syria enters a protracted state and public discontent and other tensions rise, Jordan has limited its humanitarian response. Yet, the roots of the kingdom’s challenges run deeper than the refugee crisis and if left unaddressed will be harbingers of instability. If Jordan is to confront its national challenges and continue to provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees, the country will depend on increased international support.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

16. Keeping EU-Asia Reengagement on Track

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Asia is in flux. The EU intensified its economic ties to Asia and boosted its security cooperation in the region in 2011 and 2012. But new challenges, including the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, have made it difficult to sustain this incipient momentum. There are a number of steps that EU and Asian governments can and should take to continue to strengthen their relations.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

17. Tehran Calling: Understanding a New Iranian Leadership

Author:
Cornelius Adebahr
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After years of tension, sanctions, and deadlocked negotiations, Hassan Rouhani, Iran's relatively moderate new president, has provided an opening for improved relations between the Islamic Republic and the West. While Rouhani has not ushered in a new Iran, Tehran has adopted a more conciliatory tone on its nuclear program since he took office. This shift is more than just talk, but the West will have to carefully calibrate its response to determine whether Rouhani's changed rhetoric signals the beginning of a new direction for Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

18. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

19. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:
Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

20. A Window of Opportunity to Upgrade EU Foreign Policy

Author:
Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the financial crisis recedes and the European Union (EU) regains a measure of internal stability, pressure in Europe\'s neighborhood is on the rise. The Ukraine crisis and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have elevated foreign policy to the top of the EU\'s agenda. Whether the EU can make its external action more effective will depend in large part on institutional decisions made in 2014—the selection of a new leadership team and the reorganization of the European Commission.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and North Africa