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41. China's Economic Prospects 2006-2020

Author:
Sandra Polaski, Jianwu He, and Li Shantong
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economic growth during the past twenty-five years has been remarkable, averaging more than 9 percent a year. While there have been earlier episodes of comparable growth rates in countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is no precedent for such rapid growth in a country the size of China, whose population of 1.3 billion is thirteen times that of Japan when that nation began its rapid growth. The impact on the rest of the world of economic dynamism on this scale is already being felt. If China continues its rapid growth in the coming decades, it will take the global economy into uncharted terrain.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea

42. Protecting Intellectual Property Rights in Chinese Courts: An Analysis of Recent Patent Judgements

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung and Mei Ying Gechlik
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, the country's commitment to abiding by the global body's rules has captured the attention of businesses and policy makers in the United States. Such attention is likely to grow because the Democrats are expected to use their regained power in Congress to toughen their stance on China trade issues, including intellectual property protection.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

43. China's Social Unrest: The Story Behind the Stories

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China is confronting widespread violent and even deadly social unrest, raising Communist Party alarms about national security. Some observers speculate that unrest could undermine China's national leadership, as it did in the Ukraine and the Philippines. Some U.S. policy makers might welcome unrest in China as a path to democracy and “freedom.” But rather than an opportunity to transform China's political order, China's social unrest should be understood as the unavoidable side effects—worsened by local corruption—of successful market reforms and expanded economic and social choice. Managing this unrest humanely requires accelerated reform of legal and social institutions with special attention to corruption. More violence would generate more suffering, potentially destabilizing East Asia and harming U.S. interests. The United States should encourage China to strengthen its social reconciliation capabilities, without making electoral political reform a prerequisite for intensifying engagement across the board.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Ukraine, East Asia, and Asia

44. China's Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power

Author:
Josh Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade China has downplayed its hard power in Southeast Asia, instead creating a strategy to build its soft power. For the first time in post-WWII history, the United States may be facing a situation in which another country's appeal outstrips its own in an important region, a change sure to shock the United States. Before China's appeal spreads to other parts of the developing world, U.S. policy makers need to understand how China exerts soft power, if China's soft power could be dangerous to developing nations, and whether elements of China's charm could threaten U.S. interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

45. Pakistan: The Myth of an Islamist Peril

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The risk of an Islamist takeover in Pakistan is a myth invented by the Pakistani military to consolidate its hold on power. In fact, religious political parties and militant organizations are manipulated by the Pakistani Army to achieve its own objectives, domestically and abroad. The army, not the Islamists, is the real source of insecurity on the subcontinent.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

46. Intellectual Property Rights as a Key Obstacle to Russia's WTO Accession

Author:
Matthew Ocheltree and Sherman Katz
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has been in the process of seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since June 1993. Currently, the United States is the only major economic power that has yet to finalize a bilateral market access agreement with the Russian Federation. Most observers of the situation concur that the enforcement of intellectual property rights laws remains, along with agriculture, one of the two major hurdles to Russian accession to the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

47. Islam, Militarism, and the 2007-2008 Elections in Pakistan

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The year 2007 will be crucial for the future of democracy in Pakistan. If the election schedule announced by Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afghan Niazi is followed, presidential elections will be held in the fall and the general and provincial elections will be held on January 30, 2008. All these elections will be carefully scrutinized by many in the United States and elsewhere, not least because they will include, among other political forces, a coalition of religious political parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Many commentators in the West believe that the Pakistani regime will portray the elections as a contest between Islamists represented by the MMA and the enlightened moderation of President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistan Army. However, the reality is that the Islamic forces will not be a defining factor. They are a dependent variable whose power is largely determined by the army. The only real questions are whether the army's tactics for manipulating the 2007–2008 elections will differ from those used in 2002 and what role the Islamic parties will play in the process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

48. Reform in Syria: Steering between the Chinese Model and Regime Change

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The issue of political reform in Syria straddles the line between reform of political institutions and removal from power of a particular regime and entails both domestic and external actors. The regime of Bashar al-Asad is under pressure from Syrian citizens who want a different political system and different leadership. He is also under pressure from the United States, which wants Syria to change its regional policy: stop intruding in Lebanese affairs, reduce support of Palestinian groups, and make a bigger effort to prevent infiltration of radical Islamists into Iraq. As a result, it is impossible to separate completely a domestic process of political reform from the external pressures. The two are entangled to a much greater extent than in any other country in the region except Iraq, and the analysis that follows reflects this entanglement.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

49. A Realist Case for Conditioning the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The debate over the nuclear deal negotiated by the Bush Administration and the government of India is too narrow. This is ironic in as much as the best argument for the deal is that it advances big strategic goals. Some administration officials admit privately that the purported nonproliferation benefits of the deal are thinner than the paper it's not yet written on, and they hope to convince Congress that even if there are no nonproliferation gains, the grand strategic benefits still make the deal worth supporting. Strangely, nevertheless, the debate focuses on the nonproliferation aspects of the deal and leaves larger strategic questions relatively unexamined.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Government
Political Geography:
India and Asia

50. Simmering Fire in Asia: Averting Sino-Japanese Strategic Conflict

Author:
Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years has raised geopolitical tensions in East Asia and could embroil China and Japan in a dangerous strategic conflict that could be threatening to U.S. interests. China's rise, Japan's growing assertiveness in foreign policy, and new security threats and uncertainties in Asia are driving the two countries increasingly further apart. Political pandering to nationalist sentiments in each country has also contributed to the mismanagement of bilateral ties. But Japan and China are not destined to repeat the past. Their leaders must ease the tensions, restore stability, and pursue a new agenda of cooperation as equals. For its part, the United States must play a more positive and active role.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia