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12. States Will Not Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists
- Author:
- Daryl Press and Keir A. Lieber
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Nuclear terrorism is often described as the single biggest threat to U.S. national security. The fear is that a hostile state could surreptitiously transfer a nuclear weapon or fissile material to a like-minded terror group, thus orchestrating a devastating attack on the United States or its allies while remaining anonymous and avoiding retaliation. This fear served as a key justification for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and it helps drive current arguments in favor of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Iran
13. Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector
- Author:
- Ian J. Stewart
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper exploits the concept of antiproliferation to analyze the potential for mobilizing the private sector in countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Illicit trade from the international marketplace plays a direct role in sustaining the nuclear and missile programs of several countries, including Iran, in defiance of UN sanctions. These programs also profit indirectly from trade-enabling services, such as insurance, financing, and shipping. It is argued that almost all firms will work to avoid direct involvement with proliferation for a variety of reasons, but that firms often lack the systems, expertise, and information required to identify illicit proliferation-related trade.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
14. Safe, Secure and Effective Nuclear Operations in the Nuclear Zero Era
- Author:
- Ronald G. Allen, Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Nuclear weapons have provided the foundation for international diplomacy and strategic stability for over six decades now. Their often misunderstood mission and strategic value rests in the ability to prevent, not win, major wars. This ability to deter is produced through understood capability and believable will, and ultimately rests on nuclear credibility. However, the central dilemma surrounding these weapons has always been that they provide America with both security and her only existential threat. For this reason many have tried, and thus far failed, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. The latest abolition movement, championed by former high-ranking government officials and prominent business leaders, gained momentum when President Obama declared his nuclear agenda during a 2009 speech in Prague. But his vision for a world free of nuclear weapons also came with a promise to ensure America's nuclear credibility well into the future. Often labeled a no-fail mission, producing deterrence is demanding, disciplined work with inherent risk. The addition of abolition rhetoric adds unnecessary risk in the form of mission relevance and the erosion of expertise and much needed resources for sustainment and modernization. Without significant change in the geopolitical landscape, nuclear weapons will remain a relevant portion of America's long-term national security strategy. Therefore, the burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent force are paramount to ensure credibility for America and her allies. Bottom line: nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence are still relevant today and for the foreseeable future. Therefore, to maintian international strategic stability we must embrace the necessity of nuclear deterrence, develop strategic policy that supports deterrence as an essential element and adequately resource the enterprise.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. China's Aircraft Carrier: Chinese Naval Nationalism and Its Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Robert Ross
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In August 2011, after years of planning and development, China launched its first aircraft carrier—the refurbished Soviet carrier Varyag—which China purchased from Ukraine in 1998. This development represents a major benchmark in China's naval modernization program. In addition, there are reports that China is building two aircraft carriers, which means that within five years the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could possess a total of three such vessels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Ukraine
16. Attacks on Nuclear Infrastructure: Opening Pandora's Box?
- Author:
- Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Advocates argue that air strikes against the nuclear infrastructure of a targeted state can deny it the option of producing nuclear weapons or at least create delays in its nuclear weapons program. Critics counter that such attacks may intensify the state's determination to acquire nuclear weapons and make a difficult problem more challenging in the long term. Despite the apparent appeal of targeted strikes, states rarely resort to them.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
17. Controlling Behavior – Not Arms: Moving Forward On An International Convention For Cyberspace
- Author:
- Ramtin Amin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The rapidly increasing occurrence of cyber attacks and the growing use of the cyber domain for politically motivated purposes during both times of war and peace by both state and non-state actors has precipitated a dire need of an international convention to control behavior in cyberspace. While arms control conventions exist for the nuclear, chemical, and biological modes of warfare occurring at land, sea, space, and air, no such treaty is in place for the latest domain, whose tactical importance is now of vital importance for the global communication infrastructure and domestic military capabilities. In this paper, I will first extrapolate upon the current legal landscape pertinent to cyber arms and crime, and explore the limitations of current international laws that have been most often cited during past instances of cyber attacks. I will further explore a number of arms control drafts that have been proposed over the years, and highlight some of the lessons learned, with the aim of providing a constructive analysis to aid international lawmakers and affiliated institutions who are less familiar with the meta-physical cyber domain, and the unique challenges it presents. Finally, I will analyze the following five essential elements of a future global cyber convention: terms and definitions regarding cyber arms; peaceful use of cyber technology; signatory obligations regarding private actors; attribution; and mechanisms for deterrence. In exploring these fundamental themes, I will demonstrate why and how a future convention for cyberspace should focus on controlling behavior, rather than dwelling on a counterproductive goal of arms control.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
18. Decommissioning the North Korean Nuclear Facilities: Approaches and Costs
- Author:
- Hui Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- If the agreed objective of complete denuclearization of Korean peninsula is to be achieved, it can be expected that dismantling and ultimately decommissioning North Korean plutonium production facilities have to be proceeded. This paper will focus on decommissioning the 5 megawatt-electric (MWe) plutonium production reactor and the reprocessing plant. It explores and recommends the best decommissioning approaches to those nuclear facilities. It also provides a discussion of the decommissioning costs for these nuclear facilities.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Israel, North Korea, and Sinai Peninsula
19. Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn and Andrew Newman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Obama administration is still developing a plan to ensure effective security for all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear material worldwide within four years, as President Obama outlined in his Prague speech. Because the plan is still in development, the additional funding to implement such an effort was not included in the “steady as you go” fiscal year (FY) 2010 budget request sent to Congress in early May 2009. The $1.3 billion request for programs to improve controls over nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise overseas is essentially the same as the FY 2009 appropriation and $30 million less than the FY 2008 appropriation. The request for all threat reduction programs (including chemical, biological, and missile-related programs as well as nuclear programs) is approximately $1.6 billion, a slight decline from the FY 2009 appropriation. As Kenneth Luongo, president of the Partnership for Global Security, put it in an April 2 press release: “The budget request for FY 2010 needs to be significantly increased across the board if there is any hope of meeting the President's high pri-ority WMD proliferation prevention goals. A stagnant or modestly increased funding profile will be inadequate and amount to business as usual.” If the four-year target is to be achieved, the administration and Congress will need to work together to ensure that these efforts are not slowed by lack of funds.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
20. Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation
- Author:
- Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- What is the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics? The scholarly debate pits proliferation optimists, who claim that “more may be better,” against proliferation pessimists, who argue that “more will be worse.” These scholars focus on the aggregate effects of nuclear proliferation, but never explicitly consider the differential effects of the spread of nuclear weapons. In other words, they do not examine whether nuclear proliferation may threaten some states more than others. I propose a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. I argue that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state's ability to project military power. The spread of nuclear weapons is worse for states that have the ability to project conventional military power over a potential nuclear weapon state primarily because nuclear proliferation constrains their conventional military freedom of action. On the other hand, nuclear proliferation is less threatening to, and can sometimes even improve the strategic environment of, states that lack the ability to project power over a potential nuclear weapon state, because the spread of nuclear weapons disproportionately constrains other, more powerful states. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs
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