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1. The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya

Author:
Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, and Karim Mezran
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For the past three decades, Libya has been a rich recruiting ground for the global jihad. Investigating the precursors and then subsequent evolution of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and other extremist actors throughout this period presents actionable insights into how jihadist actors coalesce; how they interfere in post-conflict state building; the threats they pose to civilians, nascent economies, and external states; and finally, what complexities remain when their hold on territory has been eradicated, but their adherents have not been killed nor their ideology debunked. In The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya, Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, Karim Mezran examine ISIS’s pre-history, birth, expansion, consolidation, and dispersal in Libya, as well as the broader political context of the country. They offer advice and recommendations for how Western governments and militaries should approach jihadist actors globally.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Libya

2. ISIS War Game II: The Escalation Challenge

Author:
Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In September 2014, Bilal Y. Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft on International Security, and Michael S. Tyson, Marine Corps Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center, predicted in a simulation exercise (for results, see "ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate") conducted at the Scowcroft Center's Middle East Peace and Security Initiative that the most likely scenario was a military stalemate. They also realized that such a stalemate was not stable. Since the conclusion of the first war game, ISIS's regional attacks have increased in scope, lethality, and level of sophistication, as evidenced by its military and terrorist operations in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt

3. The Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring

Author:
Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The popular uprisings that swept the Middle East in early 2011 dramatically altered the political landscape of the region with the overthrow of autocratic regimes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. These uprisings gave hope to citizens that this was the beginning of a long-overdue process of democratic transition in the Arab world. The monarchies of Jordan and Morocco also went through profound political changes, even though the rulers maintained their power. While the promise of democracy in the Arab transition countries was seen as the driving force in the uprisings, economic issues were an equally important factor. The explosive combination of undemocratic regimes, corruption, high unemployment, and widening income and wealth inequalities all created the conditions for the uprisings. The citizens of these countries thus expected governments to simultaneously address their political and economic demands.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia

4. Negotiating Libya's Constitution

Author:
Duncan Pickard and Karim Mezran
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Among the many problems facing Libya's troubled transition to democracy is the challenge of constructing a state in a country with a legacy of weak institutions. Muammar al-Qaddafi's brutal forty-two-year dictatorship employed a policy of de-institutionalization, leaving the presence of the state feeble throughout the country. Those organs that were powerful, including the secret security apparatus, lost their leader with Qaddafi's fall in 2011, leaving a power vacuum that nonstate actors have scrambled to fill. Some of the most influential political groups in Libya today are militias formed during and after the revolution. Although some are loosely affiliated with the ministries of interior or defense, most, if not all, do not demonstrate any particular loyalty to the government. Militias have kidnapped the prime minister (the militia responsible called it an “arrest”), assassinated judges and police officers, physically occupied the office of the justice minister, and engaged in an urban battle in Tripoli. They also seek to advance their political interests—which vary, but include influence over officials, rent seeking, and some Islamist agendas—with threats against ministries or officials. And yet the state relies on militias to provide essential security services such as running checkpoints and protecting the airport because no ministry force is up to the task. The ascendancy of these militias points to two troubling realities: the state lacks a monopoly over the use of force and the country faces an ongoing deterioration of the rule of law.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

5. No Arab Spring for Algeria

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011 passed Algeria by. While there were sporadic street demonstrations calling for political change, principally in the country's capital Algiers, they quickly petered out due to lack of support from the general public. Unlike in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, the political power system in Algeria remained intact. The autocratic government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been the president since 1999, retained complete control, culminating in his reelection on April 17 for a fourth term despite his obviously failing health.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Social Movement, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

6. Inside Libya's Wild West

Author:
Valerie Stocker
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The fall of Muammar Qaddafi's regime in 2011 after four decades of authoritarian rule gave rise to numerous armed groups competing for territory and influence. More than three years since the uprising began, persistent instability threatens not only Libya's fragile democratic transition but also security in North Africa and the Sahel zone. Tripoli is at the center of a power struggle among competing political factions. Benghazi is the scene of ever more brutal political violence, which now risks drawing the country into a civil war. Then there is the southwestern province of Fezzan, Libya's "Wild West," where human trafficking and smuggling thrive and transnational jihadists hide.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

7. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The French intellectual Jean Baudrillard once said, “It is always the same: once you are liberated, you are forced to ask who you are.” In the case of Libya, this question should have been at the center of every political initiative immediately following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Libya's new leadership had the opportunity to convene a national dialogue in an effort to explore questions of national identity and a new vision for a national mission. Unfortunately, the Libyan elites who emerged from the 2011 civil war did not make national dialogue a priority, opting to appease local forces—armed and political—rather than to undertake the difficult but critical task of nation-building.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

8. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Following Muammar Qaddafi's ouster more than three years ago, Libya fragmented, and the absence of a capable central government opened up the space for a violent political struggle over the country's key resources and state institutions that continues today. Given Libya's troubled history with centralization, there is a need for a rethink about a post-revolutionary form of governance. However, calls for federalism based on the country's three historical regions (Cyrenaica in the east, Fezzan in the south, and Tripolitania in the west) are outdated and do not take into account that Libyans' loyalties to tribe, clan, or region trump their sense of national identity. In "The Case for a New Federalism in Libya," Karim Mezran, a senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Mohamed Eljarh, a nonresident fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center, argue for a different approach. In order to empower local authorities to address distinctly local grievances while supporting a vision for a unified Libya, the authors offer a fresh proposal for a federalist system in which the executive branch handles foreign affairs and national security issues and considerable legislative powers are devolved to the regions. Such a set-up would require clear communication between the levels of government and help to eliminate the threat of partition by more effectively responding to the distinctive challenges of different segments of Libyan society. Federalism in Libya, however, faces obstacles, including the fundamental one of trust, as concerns linger that federalists' real objective is to secede. The authors provide recommendations for how to overcome these roadblocks and institutionalize federalism, including by establishing a consultative constitution-drafting process and launching a civic responsibility initiative focused on self-governance within the rule of law.
Political Geography:
Libya

9. The State of Arab Transitions: Hope Resilient Despite Many Unmet Demands

Author:
Mirette F. Mabrouk and Stefanie A. Hausheer
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Three years after the citizens of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen took to the streets demanding freedom, dignity, and greater economic opportunity, they are struggling with a harsh reality: political change is a slow, painful process. In many cases, the goals of the revolutions are far from being realized. Yet despite the lack of momentum—and in some cases, notable setbacks—there is a recognition that the wall of fear has been broken. This profound shift means that citizens in these countries will continue to demand basic freedoms and more accountable governments that deliver for their people.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia

10. Libya's Faustian Bargains: Breaking the Appeasement Cycle

Author:
Karim Mezran, Jason Pack, and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The proximal cause of Libya's current problems in the security sector, the economy, and the transition to constitutional governance is the Libyan authorities' policy of appeasement of their opponents. Some analysts have absolved the post- Qaddafi authorities-the National Transitional Council (NTC), General National Congress (GNC), government, cabinet, and ministries-of both their agency and responsibility for the current problems by blaming Qaddafi-era policies, Libya's primordial social and regional structures, and the absence of institutions (such as a national army or civil society) for most challenges currently facing the country. These factors are, indeed, key components of the troubles and constitute the root causes of the current situation. However, these preexisting factors have been exacerbated and mutated by the practice of appeasement.
Topic:
International Security and Governance
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa