In reflecting on the extensive literature and research on intelligence failures and particularly that which ensued in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, Indonesia and those in Europe, this analysis concludes that intelligence, and particularly Western intelligence, cannot be completely at fault for the failure to identify appropriately and forewarn about the occurrence of historical discontinuity events. Western policymakers, economic advisers, as well as socio-economic elites' performance throughout the 1980s and 1990s reveals flaws in long-term policy planning and decision-making with serious repercussions for strategic intelligence analysis. The inability to forecast historical discontinuity events is a key element of intelligence and policy which needs further revision.
Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, has been the main biological warfare agent studied and produced by countries that have historically retained biological weapons programmes. However, it has also been of interest to terrorist groups like al-Qaida and was the agent responsible for the Amerithrax crisis after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. This paper aims at analysing all these facts with emphasis on the Amerithrax crisis, and the possibility that jihadist terrorism could use this biological agent in terrorist attacks. Bacillus anthracis, el agente etiológico del carbunco, ha sido el principal agente biológico estudiado y producido por los países que han contado con un programa de armas biológicas a lo largo de la historia. Sin embargo, también ha sido objeto de interés por parte de grupos terroristas como al-Qaida, y dio lugar a la denominada crisis del Amerithrax, también conocida como la «crisis del ántrax», tras los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001. Este trabajo analiza todos estos hechos haciendo especial hincapié en la crisis del Amerithrax y en la posibilidad de que el terrorismo yihadista pueda utilizar este agente biológico en atentados terroristas.
On the 23rd of October the venezuelan police discoverd two explosive devices nearby the United States embassy in Caracas. The alarm necessitated the evacuation of a school situated a small distance away and two controlled explosions were carried out a few hours later.