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1. Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia's Industrial Giants

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Asia’s transformation in recent decades into a global manufacturing hub has fueled economic growth and lifted millions out of poverty. However, this success has also massively increased the region’s emissions footprint, making it essential for Asia’s industries to rapidly transition to green technologies and processes. “Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants” assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green hydrogen (H2) demand in Asia’s four largest economies: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The report, which was commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero and carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, highlights the role of manufacturers as agents of change in the Asia’s net zero transition. The study focuses on the role of green H2 in three priority industries — steel, ammonia, and methanol — under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis. Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the collective market potential of electrolyzers for these industries is expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The report offers a suite of recommendations for policymakers, industry players, investors, and think thanks aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.
Topic:
Industry, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

2. Getting Indonesia to Net Zero

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As one of the world’s fastest growing economies, Indonesia has committed to using its sustainable transition to drive green and inclusive growth. Recent steps taken by President Joko Widodo in the lead-up to Indonesia hosting the G20 summit in November 2022 underscore the country’s ambition to mitigate its emissions – including releasing a plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner, endorsing the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement at COP26, and enhancing Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of COP27. The Getting Indonesia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero explores how Indonesia can further accelerate its transition to a resilient, net zero emissions economy while benefitting its people and its place in the world. The report is based on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that shows the opportunities and trade-offs associated with different pathways for Indonesia to meet its current and more ambitious emissions reduction targets. As the report’s analysis illustrates, implementing Indonesia’s current net zero strategy could boost Indonesia’s mid-term GDP by as much as 5% by 2032, create up to two million new jobs by 2039, and ultimately improve Indonesia’s trade balance by $48 billion. Moreover, by aiming for net zero emissions by 2050 instead of 2060 while prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind, Indonesia could reduce its net zero investment needs by $3.8 trillion and peak its carbon emissions as early as 2027. In this latter scenario, the adverse impact of the net zero transition on household spending could also be cut by half. The report also outlines a roadmap for how Indonesia could realize these and other benefits by prioritizing climate policies that concurrently address development challenges, reforming the energy market structure to favor solar and wind, and leveraging green industries to advance a just transition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3. Getting Asia to Net Zero

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In March 2023, the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a key report stating that the Earth has already warmed by 1.1°C and that no additional fossil fuel infrastructure can be built and used while still holding warming to under 1.5°C. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for countries to hit “fast-forward” on their net zero commitments, with developed economies to aim for net zero by 2040, and emerging economies to target 2050. The Getting Asia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero presents another compelling reason for the Asia-Pacific region to align behind achieving net zero emissions by mid-century: taking more ambitious climate action and reducing emissions sooner could enhance the region’s economic and social development. The report draws on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that examines the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of the Asia-Pacific’s options to implement its current and more ambitious mitigation targets, as well as how variations in the power sector mix could enhance development while meeting climate goals. According to the analysis, hitting net zero emissions by 2050 could increase the Asia-Pacific's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 6.3 percent above projected levels and generate as many as 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s, as compared to the 5 percent GDP boost and 25.1 million additional jobs that current climate commitments could generate. A net zero 2050 pathway could also lead to energy cost savings of $270 billion for local households and improve the region's trade balance by as much as $827 billion, largely due to a reduction in fossil fuel dependence. Prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could help the Asia-Pacific avoid $2.2 trillion in investment requirements. The report also recognizes potential challenges associated with the transition to net zero and proposes solutions, such as facilitating the flow of international finance to mitigate adverse impacts on household spending and developing comprehensive plans to help displaced fossil fuel workers take advantage of new employment opportunities. In 2023, Asia has another compelling opportunity to globally step up on climate. A confluence of major multilateral processes will take place in the Asian region, including the G7 in Japan, the G20 in India, and the 28th UN Climate Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Group. Moreover, the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in December 2023 will assess the global state of progress and remaining gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The commissioned modeling shows that aligning the Asia-Pacific’s climate ambition with a 1.5°C trajectory is not only possible — it could also be the more beneficial path forward for the region.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

4. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The Asian region is warming faster than the global average, making it comparatively vulnerable to the effects of climate change. At the same time, Asia remains a disproportionate contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, with its annual emissions now accounting for more than half of the global total. Yet countries are reluctant to make ambitious climate pledges unless they are confident that they can secure the finance needed to implement such targets. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic, unsustainable debt, and climate change itself have complicated the amount of finance that will be needed and countries’ ability to access it. In light of these challenges, a new report on behalf of the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero articulates a regional vision for Asia’s unique climate finance needs and what needs to be done to address them. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28 identifies priority actions to assemble the finance to get Asia to net zero by mid-century while empowering the region to prosper and thrive through the clean transition. The 28th United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) next month will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Dubai on behalf of the UN’s Asia-Pacific Group. Action to meet Asia’s climate finance needs could help unlock the ambition levels needed to set the world on track, especially as countries look to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 with targets out to 2035 and even 2040. Lack of finance should not be a barrier to Asia’s climate action. Instead, sufficient finance could be the key to unlocking the “course correction” needed for Asia to help the world meet the Paris Agreement’s goals — and for ensuring a more sustainable, livable, and interconnected region and world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

5. Benchmarking Asia's Climate Action

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the source of over half of the world's annual greenhouse gas emissions, Asia is uniquely positioned to influence global climate outcomes. With the United Nations (UN) Climate Ambition Summit fast approaching on September 20 and the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake due at COP28 in December 2023, this year offers critical leadership opportunities for accelerating Asia’s climate action. The Benchmarking Asia's Climate Action report on behalf of the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero analyzes Asia's progress in relation to UN Secretary-General António Guterres' Acceleration Agenda, which aims to accelerate climate action to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that over three-quarters of Asia's emissions are now covered by net zero targets that are enshrined into Long-Term Strategies under the Paris Agreement. In addition, 16 Asian economies already have net zero targets in law or policy documents that align with the Acceleration Agenda. This group encompasses some notable emitters, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates, the host of this year's COP28 climate talks. Yet no developed economies in Asia have moved their net zero targets earlier than midcentury to align with the Acceleration Agenda. Eight countries' targets still lag behind midcentury, and a further 13 countries have yet to propose any sort of net zero target. The report also highlights areas of progress and critical gaps in Acceleration Agenda priorities apart from net zero, including preparing updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and presenting energy transition plans. Amongst a group of Asian G20 members and other key Asian emitters that together account for almost half of global emissions, the vast majority of emissions are not yet covered by absolute emissions reductions targets in current NDCs. This means that even if countries' targets are achieved, these emissions — over 40% of the global total — could still continue increasing between now and 2030. Meanwhile, the UN's climate science body finds that global GHG emissions must peak by 2025 in order to achieve both the 1.5°C and 2°C goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Taking more ambitious climate action sooner could enhance Asia's economic and social development. Modeling previously commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero shows that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 could boost GDP in the Asia-Pacific region by as much as 6.3% above the levels predicated under a baseline scenario, while creating up to 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

6. Getting India to Net Zero

Author:
Asia Sociey
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
At the World Leaders Summit at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised the world by announcing that India will achieve net zero emissions by 2070. PM Modi also announced a series of updates to India’s 2030 targets in his five-part panchamrit on climate while offering a vision of sustainable lifestyles. Together, these updated pledges — which India has recently moved toward formalizing under the UN process — reflect India’s political will to seek a cleaner development pathway in the face of projected rapid economic growth. India’s decision to step up on climate comes ahead of a pivotal moment for Asian and Indian leadership, especially with India assuming the G20 presidency in 2023 and the Asia Pacific Group hosting COP28. The new Getting India to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero explores how India can achieve net zero emissions in a manner that is beneficial to its economy, society, and place in the world. The Commission was launched in May 2022 under Asia Society Policy Institute and Asia Society President Kevin Rudd’s leadership to advance a powerful, coherent, and Paris-aligned regional vision for net zero emissions in Asia. Through research, analysis, and engagement, the Commission’s diverse set of recognized Asian and global leaders aim to provide recommendations for how Asia and key countries can realize net zero emissions, including how climate action can boost the region’s economy, trade, interconnectedness, and livelihoods. The report’s insights are informed by new modeling commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission to show the opportunities and tradeoffs associated with India’s options to meet its existing emissions reduction targets and increase its medium- and long-term ambition. As the report’s modeling illustrates, India’s decision to step up on climate is consistent with its long-term economic ambitions and interests. Achieving net zero emissions by 2070 could boost India’s economy by as much as 4.7 percent above projected baseline growth in GDP terms by 2036 — worth a total of US$371 billion — with long-run effects still maintaining 3.5 percent growth above baseline by 2060. Further policies could make net zero possible by mid-century and lead to even greater benefits. The Commission’s foreword translates these insights into actionable advice for India’s climate policy stakeholders to capitalize on the opportunities of net zero action while constructively addressing related challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
South Asia and India