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Begin New Search Political Geography Middle East Publishing Institution Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies

1. Whack-a-Mole or Coup de Grace? Institutionalization and Leadership Targeting in Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:
Austin Long
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
War is fundamentally a clash of organizations. Organizations provide the vital mechanisms that mobilize and convert resources into combat power as well as applying that combat power against the enemy. This is true not only of conventional militaries, but also of insurgent and terrorist groups. Organizational capacity is thus a crucial determinant of success in conflict. Stephen Biddle, for example, attributes heavy causal weight for success in modern conventional military conflict to the relative capacity of military organizations to employ a set of techniques he terms “the modern system.” Philip Selznick argues that organization is equally crucial for success in political combat, where subversion of other organizations is as important as brute force.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

2. Stall Speed: Assessing Delay of the Iranian Nuclear Program via Israeli Military Strike

Author:
Austin Long
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The possibility of Israeli military action against the Iranian nuclear program has existed since at least 2002. However, beginning in the fall of 2011, Israeli rhetoric and international concerns about military action against Iran have reached unprecedented levels. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak began to proclaim that Iran was nearing a “zone of immunity” to Israeli attack and therefore Israel would have to act soon. In contrast, former heads of Israel's foreign and domestic intelligence services question the utility of such an attack.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

3. Just Deserts in Iraq: American Vengeance for 9/11

Author:
Linda J. Skitka and Peter Liberman
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
In January 2002 national survey data, we find a strong relationship between Americans' desire to avenge 9/11 and their bellicosity toward Iraq, even after controlling for the perceived terrorist threat, left right ideology, and approval of U.S. political leaders. This effect could have been due to suspicions of Iraqi complicity in 9/11 stemming from prior enemy images of Iraq, or to the effects of anger and desires for revenge on out-group antipathy, displaced blame, and optimistic assessment of war risks. We test the out group antipathy hypothesis and find evidence that anti-Arab and anti-Muslim antipathy partially mediated vengefulness's effect on bellicosity. Vengeance, in turn, was boosted by retributiveness (proxied by rightwing authoritarianism) and patriotism. While perceptions of the Iraqi threat probably assumed greater importance over the course of the following year, additional survey data shows that even as war approached, most supporters acknowledged it would satisfy a desire for revenge.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia

4. Iraq, the U.S., and the Region after an American Withdrawal

Author:
Robert Jervis
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The US will leave Iraq at some point, and needs to plan for this eventuality. There are many uncertainties involved, but taking them seriously is the first step toward being able craft a policy that will reduce the damage to us, Iraq, and the region. Even if the US stays until the violence is brought down, its departure will lead to the reopening of local and regional bargains because of the lack of enforcement. The greatest danger is that heightened civil war will lead to intervention by Iraq's neighbors, but the very possibility of large-scale violence creates possibilities for arrangements to avoid it because all of the parties know that they could lose badly if things get out of control.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

5. The Problem with Redundancy Problem: Will more nuclear security forces produce nuclear security?

Author:
Scott D. Sagan
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
After the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, many scholars, journalists, and public officials expressed fears about the security of nuclear facilities in the United States. Terrorists could attack military bases, weapons in transit, or nuclear weapons production and dismantlement plants in order to steal a weapon or its components. Terrorists might attack nuclear power reactors, nuclear materials storage sites, nuclear waste transportation vehicles, or nuclear research facilities, with two basic motives in mind: to cause a conventional explosion, spreading radioactive materials in the area; or to seize the nuclear materials, which could be used for building either a dirty bomb (a radiological weapon) or, conceivably, a primitive nuclear bomb. These fears were highlighted in President George Bush's January 2002 State of the Union address, in which he reported that diagrams of American nuclear plants were discovered in al-Qaeda hideouts in Afghanistan. Senior U.S. intelligence officials also revealed that Osama bin Laden had sent operatives to try to purchase stolen nuclear materials and that there was “pretty convincing evidence” that al-Qaeda operatives had been “casing” nuclear power plants in the U.S. prior to the September 11th attacks. In January 2002, U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning, based on an interrogation of a captured terrorist, of a possible attack on a nuclear power plant or Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facility. Then, in June 2002, the Justice Department announced that it had arrested an American citizen who had joined al-Qaeda in Pakistan and was sent back to the United States to develop and execute a plan to seize nuclear materials and use them in a radiological bomb attack.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, and Middle East