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32. Diplomatic Engagement: The Path to Avoiding War and Resolving the Nuclear Crisis
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann and Benjamin Seel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Iranian relations are bad and getting worse. The New Year has opened with rising tensions between the United States and Iran and an increased prospect of war—either intentional or accidental. The Nov. 2011 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency details why the international community remains deeply concerned about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. While sanctions and other measures have slowed down Iran’s movement toward acquiring a nuclear weapons option, Tehran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities and has so far refused to implement the confidence-building steps necessary to ensure it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. The latest round of U.S. unilateral sanctions has been met with Iranian threats of closing the Straits of Hormuz through which 35% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Iran reinforced those threats with ten days of military exercises in nearby waters that included launches of anti-ship missiles. These and other developments highlight how relatively minor incidents could quickly escalate into a major military conflict. At the same time, Iran proposed on December 31 a new round of talks with the P5+1 group of nations, suggesting that that diplomatic options to resolve the nuclear concerns about its nuclear activities have not been exhausted. In the following Iran Nuclear Brief, ACA Senior Fellow Greg Thielmann argues that in order to avoid unintentional conflict with Iran, there is an urgent need to establish better lines of bilateral communication at all levels—between military forces in the region, between diplomats, and between senior officials. Thielmann also explains why pragmatic diplomatic engagement is essential to a successful strategy to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
33. Charting a Diplomatic Path On the Iran Nuclear Challenge
- Author:
- Peter Grail
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Even as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rise, the principal parties engaged in the issue say that they seek a peaceful resolution through diplomacy. Earlier this month, Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili reportedly sent a letter to European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton—who represents the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—in response to the six-country offer for the renewal of serious talks on Iran’s nuclear program. With the P5+1 insisting that a diplomatic path to resolve the issue remains open and Tehran’s professed interest in dialogue, the question arises: what steps could the two sides take to resolve the impasse? In her letter to Jalili last October calling for renewed negotiations, Ashton said the process would need to begin with confidence-building measures to facilitate longer-term engagement. Given the current trust deficit and the inability of the fractured Iranian political leadership to agree on whether and how to engage on the nuclear issue, an approach that builds upon short-term arrangements makes sense. But it will also be necessary to have some idea of what the end-goal of such engagement might be. In this respect, Ashton said in her letter that the goal of the six countries is “a comprehensive negotiated, long-term solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” reaffirming the group’s commitment to proposals it put forward 2006 and 2008. This brief provides an overview of these proposals and related confidence-building steps and discusses how they address the critical issue of Iran’s enrichment program.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Dialogue, and P5+1
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
34. The Breakout Option: Raising the Bar for the Supreme Leader
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The U.S. intelligence community still assesses that Tehran has not yet actually decided to build a nuclear weapon. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be the one to give that order and the one who would control the weapons. It is therefore worth pondering what steps could discourage him from proceeding down the nuclear weapons path. If Khamenei's foremost goals are the survival of the Islamic Republic with himself as supreme leader, developing nuclear capabilities may be seen an asset, even with the damaging sanctions that result. By positioning himself as a defiant defender of Iranian nuclear progress against foreign bullying, he can reinforce the domestic legitimacy of the clerical regime. If he came to believe that Iran could forestall continuing economic punishment and eventual military attack only by abject capitulation, he might decide that breaking out of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to build a bomb would be the preferred path for restoring Iran's international position and securing the Islamic revolution. The challenge for the United States is to devise policies that would make it as difficult as possible for Khamenei to retain domestic support and international sympathy if he were to go for a bomb.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and History
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
35. Long-Range Ballistic Missile Development: A Tale of Two Tests
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- North Korea's failed attempt to launch a satellite from its Unha-3 space rocket on April 13 and India's successful flight test of the Agni-5 long-range missile on April 19 marked significant events in the ballistic missile development programs of the two countries. These two ballistic missile test events not only reveal technical information about system performance, but also invite reflection on U.S. policy responses. The demonstration of North Korean failure and Indian success is only the most readily accessible feature of the story. The broader implications for U.S. nonproliferation and security policies are more complicated and less obvious. Both cases imply U.S. failure to accurately assess threats and to adopt appropriate responses for mitigating those threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- India, North Korea, and United States of America
36. Iran Nuclear Negotiations: What's Next After Moscow?
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- On June 19, Iran concluded the third round of talks on its nuclear program in as many months, this time in Moscow, with senior officials of the six powers - the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China. Although there were strong incentives for the six to secure limits on Iran's most worrisome stockpiles of enriched uranium and for Iran to avoid an impending tightening of economic sanction, no breakthrough was achieved by the end of the latest round. But neither did diplomatic dialogue come to an end. The sides reached agreement to meet again at a technical level within two weeks in Istanbul, to be followed by renewed contact between the senior negotiators. With perseverance from the parties, the ongoing talks can mark the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end of chances for ultimate resolution.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East
37. Submarine Nuclear Reactors: A Worsening Proliferation Challenge
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- A long submerged flaw in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) surfaced conspicuously in June when Iran announced it intended to build a nuclear-powered submarine. The treaty does not ban a non-nuclear weapons state's production of weapons-grade uranium if it is to be used to power a naval reactor. What many now consider a proliferation loophole in the NPT was first seen as theoretical because only nuclear weapons states had nuclear-powered submarines when the treaty was negotiated. Now, as more and more countries initiate or announce intentions to initiate nuclear-powered submarine programs, this excuse for enriching uranium to levels beyond the needs of civilian power reactors intensifies the challenge of achieving U.S. nonproliferation goals. The United States should adjust its policy by: 1) choosing a reactor for the Ohio-class SSBN follow-on that does not require weapons-grade fuel and 2) pushing for multilateral action to close or at least narrow the NPT loophole that allows for non-nuclear weapons states to produce highly enriched uranium for naval reactors.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Submarines, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
38. CTBT at 15: Status and Prospects
- Author:
- Arms Control Association
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has already helped to bring an end to nuclear testing, reduced nuclear arms competition, and improved global capabilities to detect and deter nuclear testing in the future. But until the CTBT enters into force, the door to renewed testing is still open. Entry into force requires ratification by a handful of key states. On the occasion of the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO), ACA organized a high-level conference on the CTBT in Vienna, Austria involving senior government representatives and leading technical experts. The participants reviewed the progress of the CTBTO and the International Monitoring System, examined the role of the CTBT in advancing disarmament and curbing proliferation, and evaluated the obstacles and pathways to the Treaty’s entry into force. This conference report includes formal conference presentations and summarizes the discussions.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
39. Strategic Missile Defense: A Threat to Future Nuclear Arms Reductions?
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- With Russia’s ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the stage is now set for new discussions between Washington and Moscow on further steps toward reducing the two states’ enormous nuclear arsenals that together comprise more than 90 percent of total nuclear weapons worldwide. Based on statements in Russia’s ratification documents and the statements of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, continued U.S.-Russian disagreements on missile defenses threaten to undermine those future talks. U.S. policymakers need to consider ways to prevent strategic missile defense system development and deployment from becoming an obstacle to progress in enhancing stability and reducing nuclear dangers. In his latest Threat Assessment Brief, ACA’s senior fellow Greg Thielmann analyzes the nature of the U.S.-Russian missile defense challenge.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Russia, North America, and United States of America
40. Assessing Iran's Nuclear Program Without Exaggeration or Complacency
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Shortly after the early September release of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on Iran’s nuclear program, the Arms Control Association assembled a panel of top experts to assess the status of Iran’s nuclear effort and examine strategies to address it. The September 19 briefing for Congressional staffers was part of an ongoing series of briefings organized by ACA and its partners on “Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle.” Along with nuclear terrorism, the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by states not yet in possession of them is at the forefront of U.S. national security concerns. Iran dominates the field. The following Iran Nuclear Brief by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, is based on his presentation at the September 19 briefing. It provides a status report on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and an evaluation of their potential as a nuclear weapons threat.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America