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1. India — Expert Comment: Kashmir attack stokes tensions along the India-Pakistan Line of Control

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 April, separatist militants fired at tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in the Kashmir Valley, killing at least 26, including one foreign national. This was the deadliest attack on civilians in nearly two decades, and a rare attack against tourists, who have thus far been largely spared from separatist violence.1 Local reports attributed the attack to The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist separatist group.2 While the group has focused its activities against Indian security forces, ACLED data show the TRF’s involvement in at least 21 attacks targeting civilians in Kashmir since the group’s founding in 2019. Similar to Tuesday’s attack, non-Kashmiris and Hindus have borne the brunt of the TRF’s violence.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Violence, Separatism, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

2. The Violent Politics of Bangladesh’s 2024 Elections

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Bangladesh have historically been marked by violence between the country’s two dominant political parties, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The upcoming elections scheduled for 7 January are no different. Violence has already been on the rise in the months leading up to the elections, in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will seek re-election for the fourth consecutive term. Much of the recent unrest has centered around concerns about the AL’s ability to hold a free and fair election. The BNP has called for the formation of a neutral caretaker government to administer the elections. The AL has rejected this demand, giving way to increased BNP-led demonstration events1 that have often turned violent. The BNP’s decision to boycott the elections, motivated by its misgivings over the election process, suggests that the results are likely to be contested, increasing the risk of post-electoral violence. As the AL looks set to hold onto power, violence within the party is also cause for concern. Competition for power among AL factions can be seen in post-election periods as rivals seek party and government appointments.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Violence, Political Parties, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

3. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4. Bangladesh’s July demonstrations are much larger and more violent than in 2018 | Factsheet

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Thousands of students took to the streets across Bangladesh in early July after a High Court verdict reintroduced controversial quotas in government jobs1 on 5 June. The latest demonstrations come six years after the Awami League (AL) government’s 2018 decision to abolish the quotas, which also followed a nationwide student mobilization. Though the demonstrations began as a mainly peaceful movement at universities, they descended into violence in mid-July amid clashes between protest groups and police, with international media reporting over 200 fatalities and thousands of injuries. Police have arrested more than 2,000 people in connection with the violence.2 On 18 July, authorities blocked internet access and the next day implemented a nationwide curfew and deployed the army with shoot-on-sight powers.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Protests, Students, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

5. Two Years Of Repression: Mapping Taliban Violence Targeting Civilians in Afghanistan

Author:
Asena Karacalti and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 17 August 2021, two days after the fall of Kabul, the Taliban held a press conference promising amnesty for former government officials, respect for women’s rights, and freedom of the press.1 Nearly two years later, it is clear that the Taliban has upheld none of these promises, instead conducting a violent campaign of repression. Since the takeover, the Taliban has targeted former government and security officials, carried out collective punishments in areas where anti-Taliban groups have emerged, and imposed ultraconservative societal restrictions – especially on women and journalists – aimed at maintaining control. ACLED records over 1,000 incidents of violence targeting civilians by the Taliban between the fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021 and 30 June 2023, accounting for 62% of all attacks on civilians in the country. This places the Taliban regime in Afghanistan2 among the world’s top government or de facto state perpetrators of violence targeting civilians domestically since August 2021, behind only the military junta in Myanmar. As Taliban rule reaches the two-year mark, this report examines patterns of violence targeting civilians under the regime, with particular attention to the top four most targeted groups: former government and security officials, prisoners, women, and journalists. Taken together, the Taliban’s retaliatory attacks, use of collective punishment, and broad crackdown on women and the press reveal the scale and severity of repression ongoing in Afghanistan. In particular, this report analyzes the continued targeting of former government and security officials, as well as violence against civilians in the country’s northeast, where armed anti-Taliban groups have been active. Both former officials and resistance forces are subject to violence when detained by the Taliban, accounting for a large number of incidents of prisoner abuse recorded by ACLED. Moreover, this report highlights persistent violence against women who oppose a return to the “gender apartheid” of past Taliban rule.3 Women have responded to increased restrictions on their daily lives by holding protests against Taliban policies, with demonstrations featuring women4 nearly doubling in 2022 compared to 2021. Finally, the report concludes with an accounting of attacks on journalists, who remain among the most targeted groups in the Taliban’s Afghanistan – creating further challenges for documenting violence in the country under the new regime.
Topic:
Human Rights, Taliban, Women, Violence, Journalism, Civilians, and Collective Punishment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

6. An Unlikely Success: Demonstrations Against Farm Laws in India

Author:
Katerina Bozhinova, Josh Satre, and Shreyya Rajagopal
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 9 December 2021, Indian farmers announced an end to demonstrations against the country’s aborted agricultural reforms (The New York Times, 9 December 2021). Still, key organizers maintain that the movement will continue to monitor government implementation of demonstrator demands into 2022 (The Free Press Journal, 12 December 2021). The decision followed the repeal of agricultural laws deregulating the sale, pricing, and storage of farm produce on 29 November (Reuters, 29 November 2021), more than a year after they were enacted on 20 September 2020 (BBC News, 16 February 2021). As of 9 December 2021, ACLED records over 5,200 demonstration events associated with the farm laws across India.
Topic:
Social Movement, Protests, Demonstrations, and Farmers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

7. Cow Protection Legislation and Vigilante Violence in India

Author:
Shreya Maskara
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In India, over 500,000 students signed up for the government-sponsored nationwide ‘Cow Science’ exam this year, which was scheduled for 25 February 2021. The ‘Cow Science’ exam, a free-of-cost voluntary exam, was purportedly meant to test people’s knowledge about cows, thus furthering curiosity about cows among the public (CNN, 8 January 2021). After widespread criticism of the course material, the exam, a product of the National Cow Commission or the Rashtriya Kamdhenu Aayog (RKA), was indefinitely postponed (Scroll, 22 February 2021). Scientists and educational institutions questioned the reference material as unscientific and critics claimed it was a mass indoctrination attempt by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has linked the protection of cows — considered sacred in Hinduism — to its Hindu nationalist policies and rhetoric (Times of India, 22 February 2021). Since the BJP came to power in 2014, laws protecting cows have been amended in several states to include stricter punishments for cow slaughter. Right-wing Hindu nationalist organizations, such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and other cow vigilantes have been emboldened to attack minority groups, including Christian, Muslim, Dalit (formerly known as “untouchables”), or Adivasi (Indigenous) communities, under the guise of protecting cattle. This report analyzes trends in political violence connected to nationalist rhetoric around cow protection in India.
Topic:
Minorities, Violence, Legislation, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

8. Naxal-Maoist Insurgency Trends in India During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author:
Aastha Kaul
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
As countries continue to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that its impact extends far beyond public health and safety, with the ability to shape political behavior and conflict. The interplay between disease and disorder is perhaps most visible in India, which has been one of the nations worst affected by the coronavirus. Following the onset of the pandemic, ACLED records an escalation of conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (for more see this spotlight infographic from ACLED’s COVID-19 Disorder Tracker) as well as a new wave of political unrest in the northeast (for more see this ACLED report on political violence in northeast India). In contrast, ACLED data show a decline in events in 2020 related to the Naxal-Maoist insurgency, one of India’s oldest post-independence conflicts. The restrictions surrounding the coronavirus pandemic impacted the Naxal-Maoist insurgency in two significant ways. First, the lockdown worsened already strained supply chains, preventing cadres from accessing vital resources such as rations and weaponry. Second, dwindling supplies subsequently affected operational capacity as insurgents were unable to effectively carry out their annual tactical counter-offensive campaign (TCOC). The combination of these factors has led to an overall decline of Naxal-Maoist activity in 2020, compared to the year prior. A comparative analysis of ACLED data for 2019 and 2020 reveals these trends and offer insights into the changing nature of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Insurgency, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India