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1. China's economic reform plan will probably fail

Author:
Derek M. Scissors
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Reactions to the Chinese Communist Party's announcement of major economic reforms in November have ranged from unbridled optimism to skepticism about the party's ability to implement sweeping change. In fact, the reforms themselves are flawed in multiple ways-most are inauthentic, uncredible, or nonviable. However, the areas of land and finance offer more limited prospects for true reform. The primary means of judging reform progress should be progress in reducing excess capacity. The most likely outcome is that the party will claim success but the economy will slowly stagnate, harming China's partners.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
China and East Asia

2. China invests (somewhat) more in the world

Author:
Derek M. Scissors
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
New data published in the American Enterprise Institute-Heritage Foundation China Global Investment Tracker show that China continues to invest heavily around the world. Outward investment excluding bonds stood at $85 billion in 2013 and is likely to reach $100 billion annually by 2015. Energy, metals, and real estate are the prime targets. The United States in particular received a record of more than $14 billion in Chinese investment in 2013. Although China has shown a pattern of focusing on one region for a time then moving on to the next, the United States could prove to be a viable long-term investment location. The economic benefits of this investment flow are notable, but US policymakers (and those in other countries) should consider national security, the treatment of state-owned enterprises, and reciprocity when deciding to encourage or limit future Chinese investment.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

3. Chinese global investment growth pauses

Author:
Derek M. Scissors
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Chinese foreign investment declined through mid-2014 for the first time since the financial crisis. By sector, energy draws the most investment, but a slump in energy spending means that metals and real estate have been more prominent so far in 2014. The United States has received the most Chinese investment since 2005, followed by Australia, Canada, and Brazil. China invests first in large, resource-rich nations but has also diversified by spending more than $200 billion elsewhere. Chinese investment benefits both China and the recipient nation, but host countries must consider thorny issues like Chinese cyberespionage and subsidies.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Australia

4. Sowing the dragon's teeth: The Kremlin's reactionary policies

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The 2008–09 financial crisis demonstrated that gas and oil exports could no longer serve as Russia's engine of economic progress and the source of a steady rise in personal incomes. Russia needed to dramatically change its investment climate through deep institutional reforms that would boost economic liberty, expand the rule of law and property rights, diminish corruption, and create more political choices for its citizens. Such reforms are all the more urgent now as Russia's economy is slowing to a crawl and trust in President Vladimir Putin is steadily declining. Yet the Kremlin has chosen to address these challenges with authoritarian consolidation, buying short-term stability at the expense of the country's longer-term prosperity and progress. Elements of the Kremlin's massive propaganda campaign include militarized patriotism and patriotic education; a selective recovery of Soviet symbols and ideals; the ultraconservative Russian Orthodox Church as the moral foundation of the regime; the promotion of a culture of subservience; and the intimidation, stigmatization, and repression of civil society and its vanguard, nongovernmental organizations. Yet instead of producing the consolidation and unity expected by the Kremlin, this campaign may yield polarization, radicalism, and violence that will prevent the country's peaceful and inclusive transition to a more dignified version of citizenship.
Topic:
Corruption, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia

5. Falling short: How bad economic choices threaten the US-India relationship and India's rise

Author:
Aparna Mathur, Sadanand Dhume, Julissa Milligan, and Hemal Shah
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Two decades after the end of the Cold War, US–India relations stand at a crossroads. Not so long ago, many in Washington viewed the signing of the historic US–India civil nuclear deal as the advent of a dynamic partnership with the potential to transform Asia and the world. Today US–India ties are just as often characterized as unrealistic or oversold.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, Washington, and India

6. Another Slowdown

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Market conditions in the United States, Japan, China, and Europe portend a weakening global economy. While not dramatic in any one region save an earthquake-burdened Japan, these conditions could accumulate to create a problematic loss of momentum for global growth, especially compared to current upbeat consensus views for the second half of 2011.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Europe

7. Are Drugs Made in Emerging Markets Good Quality? A Preliminary Assessment of Product Consistency by Use of Raman Spectra

Author:
Roger Bate
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Increasing competition generally decreases product prices. But in the case of pharmaceuticals, this is only beneficial if competitor products are therapeutically equivalent (bioequivalent). One measure of quality control is a consistently made product, examined in detail in this paper. A comprehensive study of drug samples in African and Asian countries--assessed for variability by spectrometer--suggests that registered products perform notably better than unregistered products. As all of the sampled drugs are used to treat potentially lethal infections, this product variability (particularly of unregistered drugs) could prove detrimental to public health. Future analysis will assess how significant these spectral differences are in terms of drug quality and hence how important changes in policy should be to limit quality variability.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Health, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

8. The Year to Date

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The array of postbubble stresses and uncertainties identified in the January 2010 Economic Outlook (“The Year Ahead”) promised that the new year would see plenty of volatility in markets. That is exactly what is playing out as we move through the first quarter. As risks accumulate, it may be that 2010 is shaping up as a mirror image of 2009, reversing last year's down-then-up pattern with an up-then-down pattern this year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Europe

9. Export Control Reform 2010: Transforming the Legal Architecture of Dual-Use and Defense Trade Controls

Author:
Neena Shenai
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This paper proposes reforms to the legal framework of the U.S. export control system. By examining the existing legal structure of dual-use and defense trade controls and its shortcomings, the paper considers how other U.S. legal regimes could provide models for ongoing reform efforts being undertaken by the Obama Administration and Congress. The paper proposes certain reforms, including the institution of added administrative safeguards and limited judicial review, to improve the current system.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

10. Hope Floats

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
January ended on a note of diminished hope for a sustainable global recovery as stock markets retreated from their midmonth highs. Since mid-February, however, higher hopes for a sustainable global recovery have returned. Equity markets have rallied along with markets for corporate and global sovereign bonds. Some mitigation of perceived risks facing global investors has provided a chance for hope to “float up,” and it has done so. Tension over the cohesion of the European Monetary Union and, in particular, concerns over a possible sovereign-debt default by Greece have eased, and investors continue to hope that the debt problems in Greece will not spread to the rest of Europe.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece