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1. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Law enforcers or law breakers?

Author:
Matthias Krönke, Thomas Isbell, and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In late 2020, Nigerians gripped the world with massive protests against police brutality and impunity, focusing on the country’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) (Al Jazeera, 2020; George, 2020). Three years after pictures of the #EndSARS demonstrations went viral and the SARS unit was disbanded, at least 15 protesters remain in arbitrary detention, and reports of police abuses continue unabated (Agboga, 2021; Amnesty International, 2021, 2023a; Uwazuruike, 2021). Elsewhere in Africa, and in other parts of the world, the media frequently report on unprofessional behaviour, selective enforcement of the law, unlawful arrests, corruption, use of excessive force, and other human-rights abuses by the police (New York Times, 2022). These violations are not limited to suspected criminals and public protests against the police, as in the case of #EndSARS, but also occur during pivotal moments of democratic accountability (e.g. elections), health emergencies (e.g. COVID-19), and routine citizen police encounters (e.g. traffic stops). For example, recent elections in Zimbabwe (2023), Uganda (2021), and Tanzania (2020) were marred by police repression and brutality targeting opposition politicians and their supporters (Reuters, 2023; Human Rights Watch, 2023a; Kakumba, 2022; Salih & Burke, 2020). During the 2021 election campaign in Uganda, security forces killed at least 54 people (Amnesty International, 2020).
Topic:
Corruption, Public Opinion, Professionalism, Polls, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Mapping state capacity in Africa: Professionalism and reach

Author:
Matthias Krönke, Robert Mattes, and Vinothan Naidoo
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Whether depicted as bloated, extractive, or remote from the lives of ordinary citizens, the African state is widely seen to lack the necessary capacity to provide for the physical and material security of its citizens or to command legitimacy. Yet scholars have rarely attempted to assess the performance of the African state through the prism of the lived experiences of those whom the state is meant to serve – its citizens. Most studies rely on data supplied by national statistics agencies or the judgments of expert observers. And while scholars acknowledge that the quality of the African state is likely shaped by geographic and ethnic differences within countries, few have measured how state capacity varies at the sub-national level. In this paper, we address this situation by using survey research measures of respondents’ proximity to state services and actual experiences with civil servants to measure two distinct dimensions of the state salient to the African context: its reach, or physical presence at the grassroots across the breadth of a country, and its professionalism, or ability to deliver public services in a proficient and ethical manner. The results reveal new perspectives on which states excel on either or both dimensions. They also illustrate how widely state performance varies at the sub-national level. Finally, we use survey data to assess the performance of the state, and show that it is the degree of professionalism, and sometimes reach, that enables the state to provide security and welfare, satisfy demands, and secure popular legitimacy. But in contrast to usual expectations, the size of the state at senior levels has no impact.
Topic:
Nationalism, State Formation, State Building, Professionalism, and Subnationalism
Political Geography:
Africa