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11. The Linkage between Foreign Direct Investment and Intra-Regional Trade within ECOWAS

Author:
Eme Dada
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The objective of this policy brief is to inform the Ministers of Trade and Investment of Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) countries about the importance of the linkage between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade for developing countries. FDI is considered an important means of promoting export of the host countries. This is true of inward FDI, which comes for efficiency reasons. Conversely, there is concern that large flows of outward FDI results in a decline in the host country’s exports and loss of jobs. This in turn assumes that the exports of the source country will fall as FDI substitutes for trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, and Gambia

12. Does Financial Literacy Influence Use of Mobile Financial Services in Malawi? Evidence from Malawi Household Survey Data

Author:
Mirriam Muhome-Matita and Takondwa Chauma
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Mobile financial services are gaining prominence and could be a possible avenue for fast-tracking financial inclusion in developing countries, including Malawi. However, adoption and usage of such services remains low among the Malawi population. This study investigates the influence of financial literacy on financial behaviour of individuals in Malawi, specifically use of mobile phone-based financial transactions. Descriptive and econometric analyses were conducted using cross-sectional data obtained from the Reserve Bank of Malawi. Findings reveal that the likelihood of using mobile financial services increases with increasing levels of financial literacy, type of employment and peri-urban residence. Furthermore, men are more likely to transact on mobile phones than females and that although income levels matter in the use of mobile financial transactions, the magnitude of effect is negligible. Results suggest opportunities for expanding access to financial services and products such as differentiation in financial literacy education by characteristics of population including gender of users. Informal settings do not preclude expansion of digital payments, and therefore financial product innovation and addressing rural resident’s constraints to access mobile financial services is crucial.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, Labor Policies, and Banks
Political Geography:
Malawi

13. Exchange Rate, Petroleum Price and Price Determination in Sierra Leone

Author:
B.I.B. Kargbo
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The Sierra Leone economy is a net importer with a chronic negative balance of trade. Imports as a percentage of GDP averaged 40.8% between 2001 and 2010. Imports of food, mineral fuels and lubricants accounted for 50.8% of the total value of imports within the same period. Also, the value of the leone depreciated from Le 920.75 in 1996 to Le 4,000 in 2010 while inflation averaged 12.6% for the same period. As a result of the interplay of these forces, fuel prices are most times adjusted upwards to compensate for the depreciation of the leone against the dollar or to match up with increases in the world price of crude oil. This study determines the effects of monetary environment as well as exchange rate movement and petroleum prices on domestic prices in Sierra Leone by estimating a hybrid model of inflation in which inflation responds to its own lags, lags of other variables, and a set of error-correction terms that represent short run disequilibria from the money market, external sector and output that feed into the inflation process.The empirical results from the parsimonious model show that petroleum product prices and exchange rate, as well as monetary factors determine inflation in Sierra Leone.What is also significant from the findings is that the contribution of petroleum prices to domestic price formation is unfounded in the long run, meaning that it is only a short-run phenomenon. The results also support the view that a fair portion of fluctuations in domestic prices is driven by its own shocks.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Economic growth, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

14. Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Market

Author:
Odongo Kodongo and Kalu Ojah
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premium. We use the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premium in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. We also find evidence that international investors are worried about Africa’s small size equity markets and build anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Economic growth, Capital Flows, Currency, and Profit
Political Geography:
Africa

15. Estimating the Size and Trends of the Informal Economy in Ghana

Author:
Matthew Kofi Ocran
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively examine the evolution of the informal economy over the past four decades. The study used the currency demand approach as analytical framework for the assessment. The findings suggest that there has been an upward trend in the size of the informal economy as a proportion of the officially recorded GDP. For instance, the size of the informal economy as a proportion of the official GDP estimates increased steadily, from 14% in 1960 to 18% by 1977. The proportion fell thereafter and started picking up again from 1983 to a new high of 30% between 2003 and 2004. The outcome of the study has policy implications particularly for the design of effective monetary and fiscal policy and the selection of appropriate policy instruments.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Economic growth, Fiscal Policy, and Profit
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

16. Natural Resources and Capital Flight: A Role for Policy?

Author:
Lemma W. Senbet, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi, and Rabah Arezki
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between natural resources and capital flight in the form of tax avoidance from multinational corporations. In particular, it focuses on the spillover effects in terms of tax revenue mobilization and stock market development from the thin capitalization rule, a policy instrument aimed at limiting firm tax avoidance through setting limits on a firm’s foreign indebtedness. We exploit the plausibly exogenous within-country variations of data on oil discoveries for a panel of 117 countries during the period 1970–2012. We find evidence that oil discoveries significantly enhance both tax revenue mobilization and stock market development, but only when a thin capitalization rule is in place. We argue that these findings can be explained through the limiting role of a thin capitalization rule in multinational companies’ use of financial transactions among their affiliates or tax havens to transfer part of the profit. The thin capitalization rule may thus not only help limit the erosion of the domestic tax base but may also entice multinational corporations to resort to using and developing the domestic financial system.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Economic growth, Capital Flows, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa

17. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:
Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

18. Is Poverty a binding constraint on Agricultural Growth in Rural Malawi?

Author:
Mirriam Muhome‐Matita and Ephraim Wadonda Chirwa
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Agriculture remains the most important sector in sub‐Saharan Africa and is a dominant form of livelihood for a majority of the population that resides in the rural areas. In Malawi, agriculture accounts for 35 percent of GDP and generates more than 80 percent of foreign exchange. In addition, agriculture is the most important occupation for 71 percent of the rural population in which crop production accounts for 74 percent of all rural incomes. However, agriculture has failed to get Africa out of poverty, and most countries are experiencing low agricultural growth, rapid population growth, weak foreign exchange earnings and high transaction costs (World Bank, 2008). In Malawi, for a long time, economic growth has been erratic (see figure 1) with huge swings and poverty has remained high. For instance, the annual growth rates in per capita gross domestic product averaged ‐2.1 percent in the 1980‐84 period, ‐2.7 percent in 1990‐94 period, 3.8 percent in 1995‐99 and ‐0.2 percent in the 2000‐05 period.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Poverty, GDP, Inequality, Economic growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Malawi

19. The Effects of Socioeconomic Status and Health Insurance on the Demand for Prenatal and Postnatal Health Care in Ghana

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Ghana is committed to achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5, which aim to reduce child and maternal deaths by 2015. This commitment is manifested in the way prenatal and postnatal health care services are being made accessible to women of reproductive age. Prenatal care refers to the medical and nursing care recommended for women before and during pregnancy. Postnatal care is an essential part of safe motherhood. The access to and use of prenatal and postnatal health care services are crucial for improved maternal-child survival. Ill health of women and children can arise due to the under utilization of prenatal and postnatal health care services.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, Poverty, Health Care Policy, Children, Millennium Development Goals, and Infants
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana