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11. Pivotal States, Not Swing States

Author:
Mohammed Soliman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The United States, in particular, is grappling with the challenges posed by the emerging multipolar order and the need to secure a favorable position in this evolving global landscape. As part of this contemplation, there is a growing recognition of the significance of “swing states” like India, Türkiye, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia in shaping the outcome of the postCold War order and the broader global system. However, framing these consequential states as “swing states” in and of itself carries significant risk, as it implies that the only choice they have is a binary one: pick the U.S.-led West or the China and Russia axis. In reality, their strategic posture is far away from choosing one side over the other; at the same time, they are not behaving similarly to the Cold War-era non-aligned movement that was inherently anti-Western and leaned towards the Soviet-led block under the disguise of anti-colonialism solidarity. The appropriate strategic name for this growing list of countries in the present-day is “pivotal states,” and includes Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, chosen for their strategic geography, demography, and overall strength. Alongside these, there are other pivotal states with unique roles, such as Vietnam due to its position in the global supply chain and Egypt as a maritime bottleneck between the East and West. It is now widely acknowledged that international stability and the outcome of the U.S.-China neoCold War are influenced by factors beyond the behavior of Russia and China. But one crucial factor that remains underappreciated is that the behavior of pivotal states— which are determined to chart an independent course—will play vital roles in shaping the future of the international system. It is essential to recognize that these pivotal states inherently reject the bipolarity and “Cold War 2.0” framing that dominates the perspectives of, for example, Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Strategic Stability, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, India, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

12. Free and Open Spaces: Small and Medium-Sized Nations Can Reshape the Modern World

Author:
James Jay Carafano and Márton Ugrósdy
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
What if most people are wrong about the future? The presumption—the conventional view, both in the policymaking world and in academia—is that great powers have the greatest influence in shaping geopolitics. There is also a presumption that great power competition will inevitably lead to dividing the world into hard spheres of influence, and that there will be an inevitable competition over dominating the “commons,” the routes of air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace that unite the world. We think all these assumptions are wrong. We think there is evidence to the contrary. Indeed, when great powers compete most, this often creates more space for other states to exercise influence. We argue that the countries spanning the traditional pathways of the Silk Road region from Europe and Türkiye to the Caucasus and Central Asia have that power in their hands, if, that is, they are wise in how they wield it. This essay will outline, in broad strokes, the genesis of our argument.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Small States
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:
Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

14. Time to Dream? Toward a ‘Shared Future’ Perspective for the South Caucasus

Author:
Alpaslan Özerdem
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The South Caucasus—a region at the intersection of Europe and Asia and a constituent part of what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the Silk Road region—is rich in history and cultural diversity, yet marked by complex geopolitical challenges. Comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, this region is not only a mosaic of cultures and languages but also a nexus of strategic interests for global powers. The intricate landscape of the South Caucasus is defined by its history of territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and the influence of neighboring powers, notably Russia, Türkiye, and Iran. These factors and the region’s significant energy resources have made it a focal point of international diplomacy and regional power struggles. The present-day dynamics in the South Caucasus are shaped by the legacies of the Soviet era and more recent territorial disputes, notably the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (and surrounding areas) and the conflict between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As these states navigate their post-Soviet identities and relationships, the potential for a cooperative, shared future presents itself as both a monumental challenge and a transformative opportunity. This article explores the prospects for peace, cooperation, and regional integration in the South Caucasus, delving into the complex interplay of historical legacies, current tensions, and future possibilities for a region at a crossroads. Geography is one of the critical features of nations and states for their peace, prosperity, and culture. However, geography is not the only determinant that dictates how countries live in peace and security. Climate, landscape, and natural resources are essential, but also political factors such as governance, corruption, trade laws, and political stability. Being landlocked does not mean a country cannot build a strong economy and trade with the rest of the world. There are many examples of countries in challenging geographies that have still developed strong economies with high levels of human development. The Netherlands is a small country, where around 20 percent of its current land has been reclaimed from the sea or lakes, but it is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Costa Rica is surrounded by countries torn apart by armed conflict, but it does not even have an army. Similarly, although history is a critical defining factor in forming political, social, and economic relations, it does not need to dictate whether nations live in peace or conflict with each other in the same geographical regions. The legacy of the past can be transformed to generate new ideas and opportunities for living in peace in the future. There are many examples of regions where countries experienced historical enmities but built new types of relations to live side by side and prosper together. They even managed to form alliances and economic cooperation organizations, such as the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, History, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Geography, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South Caucasus

15. Heydar Aliyev’s Energy and Infrastructure Strategy

Author:
Vitaliy Baylarbayov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
National Leader Heydar Aliyev had an exceptional understanding of foreign policy and national security dynamics. Through his strategic vision, he was able to lead the Republic of Azerbaijan from a situation of state collapse at independence to one characterized by political, economic, and security viability. Moreover, Heydar Aliyev’s geopolitical strategy enabled Azerbaijan to conduct independent policies, not dictated by any regional or global power. In support of his geopolitical strategic vision, Heydar Aliyev conceived of and executed an energy and infrastructure strategy that enabled Azerbaijan to become a major oil and natural gas producer and, in turn, to change the energy map of the Caspian region and the European continent. The core of this policy was the establishment of the East-West corridor from the Caspian region through Georgia and Türkiye to the West.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Planning, and Energy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

16. Implementing Azerbaijan’s New Urban Agenda: The Case for Transformative Policymaking

Author:
Anna Soave
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We live in a time of profound and rapid transformation. Trends and multifaceted challenges that have been gradually evolving in the past decade appear to be converging towards radical changes in the urban realm, driven by global geopolitical shifts, cultural dynamism, uneven socio‑economic progress, the disruption of labor markets reshaped by the digital revolution, and emerging technological and scientific advancements. All these are, to make matters more even complex, topped by the drive to “go green” due to the increasing evidence of our overuse of finite natural resources and the vulnerability of our ecosystem to climate crisis, and thus to our own wellbeing. Azerbaijan’s comprehensive “Strategic Road Maps,” approved in 2016, set the basis for the country’s aspirations towards the sustainability and competitiveness of its economic structure through the development of the non‑oil sector and its human capital. The more recent policy and reform framework, titled “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio‑Economic Development,” which was endorsed in 2021, spells out clean‑cut priorities for the country aimed at stimulating the growth of its economy, fostering a dynamic, inclusive, and socially‑just society, promoting the balanced development of the regions, encouraging innovation and creativity, guiding the return of internally displaced people (IDPs) to their areas of origin in the liberated territories, and promoting decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Geopolitics, Urban, Cities, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

17. Fostering a New Global Conversation: A View from Mexico on Diversifying Inter-Regional Engagement

Author:
Guadalupe González Chávez
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This essay highlights the importance of fostering a more inclusive global conversation by encouraging both intra- and inter-regional relations. Although one focus will be on fostering more communication between Mexico and the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region with Azerbaijan and the other countries that make up the core Silk Road region, various other regions and mechanisms operating within the contemporary global context will also be discussed. The dimensions of future governance may be examined from the perspective of different world regions’ capacity to communicate, collaborate, and generate a new conversation. A more inclusive approach can result in a more holistic review of different angles and thus bring out more original approaches for prospective geopolitical analysis efforts, policy design, and decisionmaking in their local, regional, and global expressions. Communication, knowledge, and culture strengthen their capacity to influence the conversation if key elements of the global governance agenda are taken as a common ground for analysis when de cisionmak ing depends on the incorporation of broader views. While distant, the location and geographical presence of LAC and the Silk Road regions allow for the possibility to analyze commonalities between these two large and complex communities whilst exploring new pathways for dialogue and international policymaking.
Topic:
International Relations, Communications, Governance, Geopolitics, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan, Latin America, Mexico, and South Caucasus

18. Transport and Transit Policy of Kazakhstan and the Silk Road Region

Author:
Bulat Auelbeyev and Aidar Kurmashev
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Since the emergence of independent states in the post-Soviet space, it has been predicted that the Silk Road region (i.e., what is usually called core or central Eurasia) could become a global strategic hub, due to both geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions. The region’s mid-continental position offers great opportunities for its core countries—particularly those located on its Central Asian side. Concomitantly, the region has attracted the attention of various centers of power—both regional and global. Furthermore, the development of trans-regional transport networks remains a hot topic, and the issue of communication development is on the agenda of almost all high-level international meetings. The already popular C5+1 format, in which various regional and world powers offer their cooperation to the Central Asian Five, also contains aspects of transport corridor development. Indeed, land transport corridors crossing the Silk Road region could create a new reality in the future. Modern logistics and transportation technologies make it possible to connect regions across the continent quickly and reliably. At the same time, states will seek to reduce the effect of non-physical barriers. This, in turn, will affect the relationship and security of all participants along the these corridors and beyond.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Transportation, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

19. Latin America and the ‘New Caucasus’: Linking Points Between Brazil and Azerbaijan

Author:
Roberto Rodolfo Georg Uebel
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For those arriving in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, after crossing the Atlantic Ocean and flying over war-torn Europe, in addition to the modern buildings along the Caspian Sea coast and the unique hospitality of its people, what stands out the most is the emerging ‘New Caucasus’ on the horizon. It is a region no longer constrained by the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and cultural ties to the old Eastern Europe and no longer overshadowed by historical hegemons like Russia (most recently) and Iran (previously). When I visited in 2022, I discovered a country, and a region, that masterfully coordinates a pragmatic foreign policy without relinquishing its Caucasian and Caspian values and roots, creating a unique political identity that, to some extent, resembles our Latin American political identity, of course bearing in mind the appropriate hemispheric and historical proportions. My observation is that Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategic actor in the Caspian Sea region as well as in the relations between Central Asia, the Caucasus, the European Union, and the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Azerbaijan, Latin America, and South Caucasus

20. The Geopolitics of Energy are Changing: It's Essential to Update Policies

Author:
Robert F. Cekuta
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Energy security is a core element of a country’s national security policy. However, what constitutes energy security is changing dramatically, which means governments must review and update their policies. Moreover, these policy reviews and updates must be ongoing, given the continuing, multifaceted evolution taking place in the global energy sector. Changes are afoot and it is imperative that policymakers are aware of this reality and are open to taking the necessary steps to take advantage of them. Just as a country keeps reviewing defense and other threats to its place in the world, so too must it reappraise and adjust its policies and tactics to ensure its energy security. Regardless of whether a country is a net importer or exporter of energy, countries the world over are affected by today’s dynamic realities. Moreover, while trying to anticipate how future directions and new developments in the global energy picture will affect a particular country or region, policymakers need to think not only about how to adapt, but also about how a country might try to affect those changes so as to improve its well-being. At the same time, a government must consider how others—whether friends or current or potential enemies—might try to shape these geopolitical changes. Passivity or simply just continuing policies that have been in place over the past few decades will not serve countries well.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus