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11. Australia’s future – still the lucky country or running out of luck?

Author:
Gorana Grgic
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
As the world rung in 2020, political analysts across the globe were busy making assessments of the past decade and offering predictions as to the dominant geopolitical, economic and social trends over the next ten years. Subjecting Australia to the same scrutiny leaves an impression the 2010s are going resilience is its greatest success as the country has continued to enjoy uninterrupted economic growth amidst the global financial crisis and in the aftermath of the direst recession to hit the world since the Great Depression. This makes it an absolute record-setter across the Western world. Yet, the optimism that such to be remembered as a decade of missed opportunities as ‘kicking the can down the road’ approach to economy, polity and security start to imperil Australia’s reputation as a lucky country. In brief, Australia’s economic positive trends will endure is fading. While Australia has been spared of the surge of populism that has plagued a significant portion of mature democracies across the West, it has suffered from an unprecedented leadership turnover that has impeded action on the most (figuratively and literally) burning issue it faces – that of climate change. On the foreign and security policy front, successive Australian governments have been walking the diplomatic tightrope as the United States remains to be an indispensable ally, while China takes the prime spot as the country’s largest trading partner. Given the intensification of the US-China rivalry, Australia finds itself needing to find a way out of this Gordian knot. Facing the grim prospects of the precipitously warming planet, the return of great power rivalry, the decline of liberal democracies, and the uncertainties of technological change, 2020s are inevitably going to force Australian decisionmakers to make hard choices.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Australia

12. The New European Commission's Green Deal and Geopolitical Language: A Critique from a Decentring Perspective

Author:
Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The coronavirus crisis deeply challenges the assumption that we human beings can dominate nature. Contraposing the new European Commission Green Deal and geopolitical language with critical/green thought, this paper aims to provoke reflections on a re-imagination of the European Union as part of a larger regional and global community that lives together within a green and diverse planet.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe

13. Structural Shifts and Regional Security: A View from Israel

Author:
Ehud Eiran
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Israel is still holding to its traditional security maxim. Based on a perception of a hostile region, Israel’s response includes early warning, deterrence and swift – including pre-emptive – military action, coupled with an alliance with a global power, the US. Israel is adjusting these maxims to a changing reality. Overlapping interests – and perhaps the prospect of an even more open conflict with Iran – led to limited relationships between Israel and some Gulf states. These, however, will be constrained until Israel makes progress on the Palestine issue. Israel aligned with Greece and Cyprus around energy and security, which may lead to conflict with Turkey. Russia’s deployment in Syria placed new constraints on Israeli freedom of action there. The US’s retrenchment from the Middle East is not having a direct effect on Israel, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel’s territorial designs in the West Bank may make it easier for Israel to permanently expand there, thus sowing the seeds for future instability in Israel/Palestine. The EU could try and balance against such developments, but, as seen from Israel, is too divided to have a significant impact. Paper produced in the framework of the FEPS-IAI project “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”, April 2020.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gas, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, United States of America, and Mediterranean

14. The Interests of Eastern Mediterranean States and Israeli Policies

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper scans the interests and activities of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean Basin – their varying and competing interests, their points of convergence and cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities for Israel. The paper is based on the main points raised at the third meeting of the working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held in September 2019 in the Herzliya offices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper shines a spotlight on key elements in regional relationships and significant activity taking place in the Mediterranean Basin, which Israel must consider in formulating and executing policy. It is based on the presentations and discussions conducted at the event and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

15. Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue

Author:
Michal Yaari
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This article focuses on relations between Israel and Qatar, analyzing them in historical context, in the context of Qatari foreign policy and in terms of their potential and the limitations imposed by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The article describes the shift from a mutual conception of hostility to unusual cooperation over the Gaza crisis. While Israel aspires to avoid additional rounds of violence with Gaza, Qatar seeks to strengthen its regional role as a mediator, and mutual interests converge into joint activity to avert an additional military clash between Hamas and Israel. The cooperation between the states illustrates how the Palestinian issue can leverage regional cooperation. At the same time, the untapped diplomatic, economic and civilian potential of Israel-Qatar relations points to the limitations imposed by the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Economy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Qatar

16. Israel-Egypt Cooperation in 2019: Strategic Warming, Civilian Coolness?

Author:
Haim Koren
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Since President Abdel Fatah a-Sisi’s rise to power in 2014, Israeli-Egyptian ties have been marked by defense-strategic cooperation. This is based on the shared perception of Iran and radical Islamist terror organizations as a threat, and the common interest in managing the Palestinian issue, in general, and specifically the Gaza arena. In the inherent tension between ideology and national interests, Egypt continues to strive for an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (Fatah, Hamas and the other Palestinian factions) and seeks to bring about internal Palestinian reconciliation beforehand (between the leaderships in Ramallah and Gaza). Its role as a key mediator between Hamas and Israel is crucial, and is in line with Egypt’s international standing as an important regional leader.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Egypt

17. Israel-Iraq Cooperation in 2019: Security Challenges and Civilian Warming

Author:
Ronen Zeidel
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The final months of 2019 were marked by widespread, prolonged protests throughout Iraq, which began in October. Baghdad was the focal point of the demonstrations, which were directed at the ruling political elite and the state backing it: Iran. Prime Minister Adil AbdulMahdi resigned at the end of November, throwing official Iraq into a political vacuum and guaranteeing that any premier appointed to replace him would be considered an interim ruler and as such, his government would only be accepted by the weakened political elite, but not by a significant part of the population. This article reviews the changes that occurred in 2019 in the nature of Israel-Iraq cooperation, as they relate to diplomatic, security, economic and civilian aspects.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

18. Israel-Morocco Cooperation in 2019: Warming from the Bottom Up

Author:
Einat Levi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This article examines the current Israel-Morocco cooperation and its development through 2019. It briefly describes developments in diplomatic, security, economic and civilian arenas in order to find common ground and identify trends. Naturally, the paper will not elaborate much on the security-intelligence aspect of the cooperation, despite its centrality, due to its classified nature.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

19. Israel-Jordan Cooperation in 2019: Continued Deterioration

Author:
Yitzhak Gal
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The year 2019 saw additional deterioration in Israel-Jordan relations to the point where ties can be described as “toxic”. Israel’s continued callous disregard of Jordanian sensitivities and interests on policy issues (such as al-Haram a-Sharif/Temple Mount) and economic issues (such as water), was further exacerbated by the particularly volatile issue of the Jordan Valley annexation. Strong security ties continued to provide the basis of the relationship, although they are conducted largely behind the scenes. Economic and civilian cooperation declined, except for the Israeli gas exports to Jordan, which are of strategic importance. Nonetheless, and despite Jordan’s frustration, anger and disappointment with Israel, new content can be infused into the relationship in order to rehabilitate it. Both states have a clear interest in cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

20. Israel and Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the role of energy in shaping Israel’s policies towards the Mediterranean. It is based on the main points raised at the fourth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held in December 2019 at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. The meeting was held at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. This paper highlights the main repercussions of energy findings on regional cooperation and the opportunities it opens up for Israel. It presents the link between diplomatic and economic considerations, and the emerging energy alternatives that Israel is considering as it formulates and implements policies. The paper does not reflect agreement among all meeting participants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean