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7222. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2001
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest slow growth until late in the second quarter of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
7223. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2001
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show not only that there is no sign of a recession looming on the horizon, but that economic activity continues to grow, although more moderately.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
7224. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2001
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.8 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show that the pace of economic activity is moderating, with no clear sign of a recession looming on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
7225. Terrorism and America: Five Asia Pacific Perspectives
- Author:
- Terutomo Ozawa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Just over a decade ago, the phenomenal economic growth of Japan was admired and even feared. It had pursued a successful strategy of industry upgrading to catch up with the West, maximizing bank-based, state-directed financing. Ironically, the very institutional setup that was required for success eventually resulted in a devastating economic downturn. Japan remains languishing in a state of economic stagnation, but that may change: market forces are now driving Japan to carry out major reforms. A market-oriented business environment is crucial, and thus Japan is being propelled toward deregulation and institutional reform. In particular, its traditionally protected, inner-dependent sector must be opened to competition in order to improve efficiency, and obstacles to direct foreign investment must be eliminated. Although the process is a gradual one that has been further hampered by the slump in the U.S. economy, dramatic changes are in motion, creating promising roles and opportunities for foreign investors as well as potential for Japan to realize a new economic vitality.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
7226. "Déjà vu all over again?" Why Dialogue Won't Solve the Kashmir Dispute
- Author:
- Arun R. Swamy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The intensification of a long-standing dispute between India and Pakistan over the state of Kashmir has become the cause of international concern. The stakes for these nuclear-armed rivals are high. Each views Kashmir as the validation of its national ideology; each fears that giving it up will result in serious domestic turmoil. Moreover, each country has plausible legal arguments for its claims along with a long history of grievances. The deep differences over Kashmir that divide the two countries have so far proven intractable, and following September 11 the movement toward confrontation accelerated. There has never been a more urgent need for international attention to Kashmir. While diplomatic engagement seems necessary for a resolution of this dispute, past results indicate that simply pressuring the two sides to talk may be disastrous. In order to avoid such results, any effort to intervene in this dispute must be undertaken with an awareness of how it evolved, why it has been so difficult to resolve, and what kinds of solutions to it might realistically be pursued.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, and Kashmir
7227. Terrorism and America: Five Asia Pacific Perspectives
- Author:
- Harry Bhaskara, Gautam Chikermane, Unaloto Ofa Kaukimoce, Amantha R. Perera, and Takeshi Yamashina
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Three weeks after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., five journalists—from India, Fiji, Japan, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka—visiting the East-West Center on an exchange program accepted an invitation to write about the attacks and "America's War on Terrorism" from the perspective of their own country. Their responses are frank and sometimes anguished. "As global terrorism evolved into a beast out of control, America enjoyed the good life," writes a Sri Lankan. The United States has declared a war on terrorism but, an Indian asks, is it only because now "the grief pours out of American eyes"? In Japan, resentment over America's increasing "unilateralism" coexists with an unprecedented willingness to send troops overseas, says a writer for The Mainichi Newspapers. A Fijian broadcaster notes that calls for international action are accompanied by "unease over violent retaliation." The mixed emotions described by many are dramatically evident in predominantly Muslim Indonesia where, says a newspaper editor, anti-American demonstrations defied President Megawati's assurances of support for the United States.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Japan, America, Indonesia, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka
7228. Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Sheila A. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and Japanese policy-makers have successfully reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Yet, even as they have done so, a series of events has revealed a deeper ambivalence in Japan about the terms of the alliance. These events began with the 1995 rape of a school girl in Okinawa by U.S. servicemen, focusing attention on the social costs to residents of hosting U.S. forces. In 1999 came North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan, raising doubts among many Japanese about their alliance partner's ability to protect them. Most recently, the outcome of the 2001 sinking of the Ehime Maru training ship by a U.S. nuclear sub seemed to many to sacrifice Japanese citizens' interests to those of the U.S. military. Taken independently, these developments may seem temporary set-backs to policymakers, but together they suggest that there is increasing impatience among Japan's citizens with the way the alliance is managed. This disconnect between the public and policymakers could, if untended, have serious implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea
7229. Rough Waters in the South China Sea: Navigation Issues and Confidence-Building Measures
- Author:
- Ji Guoxing
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements. In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and China
7230. The Pugwash Policy Brief: US-Cuban Medical Cooperation: Effects of the US Embargo
- Author:
- Jeffrey Boutwell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In 1995, the Pugwash Conferences and one of its cofounders, the physicist Sir Joseph Rotblat, shared the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of their decades-long work to reduce the threat of nuclear war and ultimately abolish nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Beginning with its first international conference in Pugwash, Nova Scotia in 1957, the Pugwash Conferences have brought together influential scientists, scholars and public figures concerned with reducing the danger of armed conflict and seeking cooperative solutions for global problems.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States