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6871. Ukraine and the West: Policies for Progress

Author:
Oleksandr Pavliuk and John E. Tedstrom
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
A limited window of opportunity has opened to advance democratization, the rule of law, and market economics in Ukraine. This unique situation is the result of economic growth since 2000, strong voter support for reformers in the March 2002 parliamentary elections, and a rearrangement of the strategic landscape since September 11, including positive shifts in Western relations with Russia. How Ukrainian leaders make use of this opportunity will have serious implications for Ukraine's integration with European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. To achieve success, Ukraine will have to deliver on substantive domestic reforms and demonstrate a genuine openness to integration. Leadership from the West is equally imperative; clear indications of the West's desire to see Ukraine succeed at home and in European integration will have a strong positive influence at the grassroots, which will in turn be decisive in the 2004 presidential elections. By contrast, if the West disengages now or fails to formulate a clear concept of its relations with Ukraine, voters will be less likely to support presidential candidates who advocate a European choice and the domestic change it requires. As a result, the likelihood that non-reformers will prevail in the 2004 presidential elections would increase, thereby jeopardizing Ukraine's long-term stability and its contributions to regional and global security.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

6872. Reconceptualizing NATO

Author:
István Gyarmati and Christopher Walker
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the NATO summit in Prague less than six months away, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic must quickly construct a new vision for the Alliance. Making NATO relevant for the 21st century requires developing a realistic plan for restructuring forces and re-examining long-held assumptions. NATO leaders must strike a course that recognizes a dramatically changed international landscape. Terrorism, organized crime, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and related technologies, and militant fundamentalism have risen to the top of most threat assessments. NATO has not yet made the adjustments necessary to meet these new threats. Political and commercial rifts between the United States and Europe are growing wider, and the technology and capabilities gap between America and its allies draws into question the relevance of European militaries. At the same time, the Alliance is poised to invite a set of new members – possibly as many as seven – to join its ranks. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic thus face the daunting challenge of meeting the commitment of enlarging the Alliance while simultaneously transforming it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, and Asia

6873. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

6874. Turkey's Elections and the United States

Author:
Philip H. Gordon and Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The landslide victory of an Islamic party in a Turkish election would hardly seem to be good news for Americans at anytime. Butwithwarlooming inIraq,Turkeytrying torecoverfromits worst financial crisis ever, emerging questions about European defense and NATO, Cyprus talks at a critical stage, and Ankara's application for membershipinthe EuropeanUnioninthe balance, the November3electoralvictory oftheJusticeand DevelopmentParty(AKP)probably struck many U.S. observers as the wrong outcome at the wrong time.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

6875. Euro-Focus, After The German Electoral Storm: Mending Bridges, Rebuilding Confidence

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina Balis
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This past summer began with predictions of the return of a new conservative government in Germany and the alleged demise of Europe's left. The consecutive victories of leftwing parties in Sweden and Germany this month proved the fallacy of both predictions, while raising serious questions in Europe and the United States about the future course of German policies.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Germany, and Sweden

6876. Euro-Focus, September 11, One Year Later A Fading Transatlantic Partnership?

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
One year ago, the two summits scheduled by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) for the end of 2002 were expected to start the final phase of the Euro-Atlantic vision: two institutions with overlapping sets of members engaged in missions that might not always be pursued in common but would always remain compatible in their goals and complementary in their methods. Instead, as the year has unfolded since September 11, that vision has become increasingly blurred. Now, there is a sense that the two sides of the Atlantic are drifting away from the lofty goals they set after World War II and during the Cold War, and sought to reassert after the Cold War. The relationship is not only said to be lacking coherence; it is also said to be losing its necessity, as Americans and Europeans no longer share values or even interests—and, even when they do, lose their commonalities in the increasing capabilities gap that divides them.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6877. Chirac's Blind Date with History

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, Pierre Messerlin, and Chris Wiley
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The French elections held during the past eight weeks—first for the presidency and then for the National Assembly—were the most significant elections held in France since 1981. On the whole, their outcome is good for France, for Europe, and for the United States. They restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under the strained conditions of political cohabitation (1993–1995 and 1997–2002). Moreover, by renewing the primacy of the French presidency, these elections enable Jacques Chirac to assert his leadership during the decisive years that loom ahead for the European Union (EU), as well as for its relations with the United States within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finally, these elections also confirm Europe's political drift to a center-right that the elections in Germany scheduled for September 23 are likely to make complete (Euro-Focus, September 15, 2002).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and France

6878. Taxing Decisions for Europe

Author:
Jennifer Lee, Simon Serfaty, and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Ten years after the target date for the completion of the European internal market, much remains to be desired in the area of common policies. The absence of a coherent EU tax policy, in particular, has been a continued obstacle. Yet, with the introduction of the euro and in view of the EU's anticipated enlargement (Euro-Focus, January 9, 2002), the timeline for addressing these deficiencies is shortening.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6879. Bigger Europe, Smaller Agenda

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, George Handy, and Georgeta Pourchot
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
“More Europe in every area” may sound like an ill-chosen motto for a six-month presidency facing an already demanding and inflated agenda. It is reflective of a concern, however, not to expand the current list of priorities to new initiatives that would risk the fate of past abortive attempts. Avoiding new confrontations, while ensuring the smooth pursuit of ongoing reforms, has become Spain's principal goal during its presidency in the first half of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

6880. The Year of Enlargement

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Preparations for EU enlargement, combined with more of the unfolding debate on the constitutional future of Europe, will dominate Europe's institutional agenda in 2002. The three Baltic countries and all four countries in central Europe, plus Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus should be able to conclude their bilateral access negotiations by December 2002, and even, in a few cases, on time for the European Council of June 21–22, in Seville, Spain. Expect, therefore, the enlargement of the EU to 25 members—one that might start as early as January 2004 and end, possibly, no later than June 30, 2007. What follows is a 17-step primer on the process and pattern, the various timetables, and the possible outcomes of an enlargement that will begin to emerge, at last, in 2002.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France