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6861. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Time Warp

Author:
Dr. Bruce G. Blair
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
President george W. Bush's new Nuclear Posture Review harks back to the stone age, or at least to the 1950s, when America's most beautiful minds struggled to devise a strategy to deal with the original rogue state — the Soviet Union. The latest exercise to devise a nuclear strategy to neutralize threats of weapons of mass destruction wielded by the 2002-class of rogue states such as Iraq and North Korea is proof that time folds over on itself, and that higher-order nuclear intelligence is as elusive as table-top fusion. This repetition of history isn't funny, but it is dangerous.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq and North Korea

6862. The Defense Monitor: Exploring the Axis of Evil — Introduction

Author:
Dan Smith
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
IN HIS JAN. 29, 2002 State of the Union Address to Congress and the American public, U.S. President George W. Bush described a tripartite “axis of evil” threatening the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

6863. The Defense Monitor: Gens. McCaffrey and Wilhelm Visit Cuba with CDI Group

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
A Cdi Delegation Traveled to Cuba Feb. 27-March 3 and met top Cuban officials, including Fidel Castro, to explore the possibility of closer cooperation between the United States and Cuba in the fight against drugs and terrorism. CDI President Bruce Blair led a group that included Gen. (Ret.) Barry McCaffrey, Gen. (Ret.) Charles Wilhelm, and members of the CDI board and staff. McCaffrey was “drug czar” under President Clinton; Wilhelm was commander in chief of Southern Command from 1997-2000, and now serves as a Distinguished Military Fellow with CDI. He also went to Cuba with a CDI delegation in February 2001.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

6864. The Defense Monitor: The Pentagon's Fiscal Year 2003 Budget Request: More of Everything

Author:
Christopher Hellman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
On feb. 4, the administration of President George W. Bush released its proposed federal budget for fiscal year 2003 (FY'03). It includes a $396.1 billion request for national security: a whopping $379.3 billion for the Defense Department and $16.8 billion for the nuclear weapons functions of the Department of Energy. This is $48 billion above current annual spending levels, an increase of 13 percent. It is also 15 percent above the Cold War average, to fund a military force structure that is one-third smaller than it was a decade ago.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

6865. The Defense Monitor: The World At War — January 2002

Author:
Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Sept. 11 did not presage or begin a new war. For more than 30 years, the modern world has confronted terrorism in the form of plane hijackings, massacres of travelers and athletes, and assassinations of politicians and military and business people. During the same 30 years, untold numbers of civilians in countries all over the world have been wounded, maimed, and killed as groups vying for personal and political power have battled each other, sometimes with the backing or even direct intervention of neighboring states.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

6866. Turkey's Bold Step Into the Future: Will the EU Meet the Challenge?

Author:
Adam S. Albion
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The triumph of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's November 3 national election represents a significant opportunity to demonstrate both to the West and the Muslim world that it is possible for a democratic, Islamic party to effectively lead a modern secular state. Such a demonstration of the compatibility of Islam and democracy could produce a catalytic and strategically important effect among moderate Muslims throughout the world. The AKP seems to have recognized the importance of this opportunity by pledging to continue with much-needed political and economic reforms and EU integration efforts. The EU and the West must not let this opportunity pass them by; they must continue to encourage Turkey on its path to economic and political reform by establishing a concrete timeline towards EU membership and by helping Turkey to overcome its current financial crisis. Rejection by the West at this critical juncture could have very damaging effects, not only for Turkey, but for the viability of moderate Islamic parties throughout the Muslim world.
Topic:
Economics and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

6867. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:
Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6868. The Federal Option for Afghanistan

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future security and stability of Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus–all struggling to deal with the simultaneous forces of terrorism, crime, narcotics, poverty, and disease–require a successful political and economic transformation in Afghanistan. A federal system was rejected in favor of aunitary state structure for Afghanistan, but the government of Hamid Karzai has faced great difficulty extending central authority much beyond Kabul. New questions about state-building there and elsewhere in the region should compel policymakers to reconsider federalism among a range of options for how best to organize this complex and diverse society. Although critics charge that a federal solution to state organization enhances social cleavages and fosters instability, federalism could be aviable and effective option if constructed to minimize the power and influence of the demographically dominant group.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Kabul

6869. Transatlantic Energy Security and the Caspian Basin: Moving Towards a Common Agenda

Author:
Adam N. Stulberg and Hendrik Cosijn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Once considered an impediment to stable development and a catalyst for a new “Great Game,” Caspian energy may play a stabilizing role in world markets and geopolitics after all. With the West's growing dependence on hydrocarbon imports, growing tensions in the Middle East, and Moscow's emergence as a major player in 21st century energy politics, the Caspian region is poised to become a focal point for cooperation between the United States, Europe, and Russia. Policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Moscow share a common interest in preventing the Caspian Basin from lapsing into another Persian Gulf, where windfalls in oil revenues have fueled instability and extremism. They also recognize that efforts to extract and export Caspian energy must advance regional development and stability. Thus far, however, shared interests have not yielded real transatlantic partnership on Caspian energy issues. Different strategic orientations and preferred approaches for unlocking Caspian energy threaten to mar prospects for broadening and deepening transatlantic cooperation in the region. To date, the U.S., Europe, and Russia have pursued parochial interests in the Caspian Basin without much regard for each other. The time is ripe for American, European, and Russian policymakers to take stock of the burgeoning confluence of interests, mount a concerted effort to prevent backsliding, and cement a common agenda by forging a trilateral dialogue on Caspian energy issue.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow

6870. The United States, Europe, and Russia: Toward a Global Energy Security Policy

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Together, the United States, Europe, and Russia can help to diversify the global energy supply by creating a Global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (GSPR) filled largely with oil from Russia and other states in the Caspian Basin. Such a move would mitigate U.S. and European dependence on Middle East oil and help to stabilize world oil prices. Other important beneficiaries of a GSPR would be the Asia-Pacific economies outside the OECD that currently lack strategic reserves. A GSPR offering access to China and other Asian economies would help anchor these states in an important, positive-sum arrangement that highlights shared energy security interests with Russia and the West. If managed responsibly, creating the GSPR will not antagonize OPEC countries, which themselves benefit from stable energy markets. Moreover, developing the GSPR will encourage the reform and modernization of Russian and other transition countries' energy economies and give real substance to collaboration on energy issues between Russia, the EU, and the U.S. If coupled with close collaboration on Caspian energy development, the creation of a GSPR would make U.S. and EU energy ties with Russia and its neighbors sources of substantial, long-term strength.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia