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6591. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players

Author:
Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea

6592. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

6593. HIV/AIDS in Asia

Author:
Tim Brown
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The HIV/AIDS epidemic began relatively late in Asia and, so far, HIV infections have not reached the high levels experienced in other parts of the world. Yet behaviors that increase the risk of transmitting HIV are not uncommon in many Asian societies. But there is some good news for countries facing the possibility of an HIV epidemic. Most early HIV transmission in Asia occurs in very specific groups, through needle sharing, anal sex, or sex work. Experience in Thailand and Cambodia has shown that it is possible to lower HIV transmission rates by aggressive prevention programs targeting these groups. Analysis of these programs points to policy recommendations for other Asian governments: obtain accurate information on HIV prevalence and risk behavior; target leaders for sustained commitment; provide the public with full and accurate information; move quickly to provide effective coverage of groups most at risk; sustain and expand prevention activities; convince lawmakers and local authorities to take a pragmatic approach; ensure the active involvement of key communities; and put an end to complacency.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Asia, Cambodia, and Thailand

6594. Changing Korean Perceptions of the Post-Cold War Era and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For half a century the United States and South Korea have been united in an alliance that has simultaneously contained North Korea and projected American power into Northeast Asia. Now that alliance is being questioned by many South Koreans, whose country has developed from a poor, authoritarian state into the world's 11th largest economy and a vital democracy. Along the way South Koreans' views of themselves and of other nations have changed. Improved relations with China and Russia, and a policy of engagement with North Korea, have reduced the country's dependence on the United States and South Koreans' tolerance for what they view as American arrogance and unilateralism. Indeed, Koreans today view their Cold War allies (the United States and Japan) more negatively than their Cold War enemies (North Korea and China), a situation that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. The poorly coordinated North Korea policy of Seoul and Washington appears to be a direct cause of anti-Americanism, which will grow unless the two countries develop a more equal, mutually acceptable relationship.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Israel, South Korea, and North Korea

6595. Living with a Climate in Transition: Pacific Communities Plan for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Eileen Shea
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Earth's climate is in a state of flux. Whether in terms of relatively short-term shifts, called climate variability, or long-term climate change associated with greenhouse gases, consequences of changing climate conditions appear unprecedented. Losses due to weather-related disasters have soared recently—especially in the Pacific, where island environments, societies, and infrastructures are particularly vulnerable. For generations, human response to climate events has been just that: response after the fact to phenomena that neither residents nor scientists adequately understood. Now, a growing body of information about the causes of climate events is enabling Pacific Islanders and others to anticipate events and move past being victims to become informed planners. This new knowledge can only be successfully applied via dynamic partnerships between science and society. Particularly promising is the emerging field of climate risk management, in which disaster management and climate science communities unite, forming model partnerships to plan for the inevitabilities linked with the planet's variable and changing climate.
Topic:
Environment and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

6596. Coast Guards: New Forces For Regional Order and Security

Author:
Sam Bateman
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) created new maritime law and extended maritime jurisdiction that were ex-pected to justify naval expansion. To some extent this has been so, but another trend is also apparent. Regional navies are concentrating on war-fighting capabilities while existing coast guards are being expanded and some countries are establishing coast guards for the first time. The protection of off-shore areas and resources is a central element of national security for most regional countries and an important consideration in nation building and governance. Coast Guards are emerging as important national institutions in Asia and the Pacific with the potential to make a major contribution to regional order and security. This development reflects a concern for coop-erative and comprehensive security and will facilitate regional maritime cooperation and confidence building. It is a positive factor for regional order and security and may constitute a revolution in maritime strategic thinking.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

6597. China's State-Owned Enterprises: Thriving or Crumbling?

Author:
Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Even though China's state firms lost their near-monopoly status after 1978, they still form the country's financial and industrial nucleus.Nevertheless, in early 1996 the total losses of these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exceeded profits for the first time. With the economy threatened, offi-cialdom issued a mandate in 1997: SOEs must become profitable in three years. In 2001, statistics showed a massive turn around, and victory was declared. Despite doubts about the official statistics, substantial improvement did seem evident. The question was, what caused it? While massive layoffs and corporate restructuring did increase efficiency, most improvements have been the result of external factors such as debt restructuring and government-arranged buy-outs and mergers. This strategy offers short-term rewards, but could be a disaster in the long term. Real reform of China's state sector requires financial reforms that bite (even more urgent with WTO entry), serious moves toward a social security system for displaced workers, and more outright priva-tization of state firms to give non-state shareholders real power on their boards.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China

6598. Good Intentions Will Not Pave The Road to Peace

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

6599. Revaluing the renminbi: a case of 'déjà vu all over again'?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There are strong parallels between today's US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6600. Globalization of IT Services and White Collar Jobs: The Next Wave of Productivity Growth

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Businesses throughout the US economy continue to transform even after the technology boom has faded. The key sources of this continuing transformation are investment in the information technology (IT) package (hardware, software, and business-service applications) and reorientation of business activities and processes to use both information and technology effectively.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States