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591. The Temple Mount Crisis and Israel’s Cabinet: Recommendations for the Future

Author:
Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The crisis concerning the Temple Mount that erupted in July 2017 appears to have ebbed. Despite predictions to the contrary, the Middle East is not ablaze; peoples and leaders of the region remain preoccupied with other crises; and there is no third intifada at Israel’s doorstep. At the same time, the attack on the Temple Mount that left two Israeli policemen dead brought on serious additional consequences, including the murders in Halamish, the tension with Jordan, worsened relations between Israel’s Jewish population and its Arab sector, and further erosion of Israel’s vague sovereignty on the Temple Mount.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel

592. Israel and American Jewry: Stepping Back from the Brink

Author:
Daniel Shapiro
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Jerusalem’s holy sites have a way of asserting strategic significance far beyond what their simple physical presence would suggest. Events in the aftermath of the shooting of two Israeli police officers on the Temple Mount highlight this truth. So it was with respect to the Kotel (Western Wall) a month earlier, albeit in a non- security context. Following the Israeli government’s decision to reverse course on an agreement with the liberal streams of Judaism and Diaspora representatives to establish a third section of the Kotel for egalitarian prayer, a crisis erupted that has called into question Israel’s very relationship with Diaspora communities, first and foremost the American Jewish community, which has been steadfast in its support of the US-Israel bilateral relationship. The sense of crisis was deepened further by a separate government decision to advance a law on conversion that could call into question the validity of conversions when Jews converted by Reform and Conservative rabbis overseas come to Israel.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel

593. From the Temple Mount to the Israeli Embassy in Jordan

Author:
Oded Eran
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The tension on the Temple Mount and the crisis between Israel and Jordan following the attack on a security guard at the Israeli embassy in Amman need more than ad hoc solutions that leave the basic situation unresolved and the strategic opportunities untapped. Israel would do well to seize the political and operational initiative before international and regional entities do, and propose, inter alia, an international meeting on steps that can prevent radical entities from violating freedom of worship and freedom of access to the Temple Mount, a site holy to both Judaism and Islam. The proposals on the Temple Mount issue relate to another key issue, namely, Israel’s response to key regional changes - the accelerated weakening of Arab political unity and the strengthening of the parties threatening the survival of the moderate Arab regimes.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel

594. Preparing for an Earthquake: Responses by the Public and the Authorities

Author:
Carmit Padan and Jael Eshkenazi
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) estimates that in the past 20 years, approximately 1.3 million people were killed and approximately 4.5 billion were affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes. Yet the number of casualties caused by the earthquake in Haiti in 2010 varied sharply from the number of casualties caused by the earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011. The earthquake in Haiti was of similar magnitude as the major quake in Christchurch, but the human toll was significantly higher: 185 people were killed in the Christchurch earthquake, versus an estimated number of more than 220,000 killed in Haiti. Clearly, then, it is not the magnitude of the disaster or natural hazard that determines its impact.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Haiti

595. Iran: Mounting Tension between President Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards

Author:
Sima Shine, Raz Zimmt, and Anna Catran
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The tension between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards that was evident during the presidential election campaign has intensified in recent weeks and evolved into a confrontation that is unprecedented in its openly severe nature. The current confrontation surrounds two main issues: Iran’s missile strike against Islamic State targets in Syria, and President Rouhani’s criticism of the Revolutionary Guards’ involvement in the economy.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Iran

596. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria

Author:
Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin since Trump entered the White House took place in Hamburg, during the G20 summit of July 7-8, 2017. Relations between the two powers have been marked by tension over disagreements on various areas of conflict around the world, and from the reports in the United States about alleged contacts between Trump and Russia during the presidential campaign and Russian cyber interference in the election process. Tensions rose further when US forces attacked pro-Assad coalition forces in Syria and when Russia opposed the condemnation of North Korea in the Security Council regarding Pyonyang’s long range missile program. Nonetheless, reports were that the meeting between the leaders, which lasted longer than planned, was constructive, though very few details about the conversation itself or any agreements reached were provided, other than an announcement on the agreement to impose a ceasefire in southwestern Syria and establish a de-escalation zone there.
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

597. The G20 Hamburg Summit

Author:
Oded Eran
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The agenda alone of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany on July 7-8, 2017 was not sufficient to draw the world’s attention. Although the forum brings together the leaders of the world’s 19 leading economies and the European Union, representing two thirds of the global population and 80 percent of the global GDP, it generally draws little more than thousands of demonstrators protesting globalization. This summit, however, generated much interest as it provided the stage for personal meetings between leaders, some the first of their kind, such as between Presidents Trump and Putin. In addition, at the summit Trump had to confront the other 19 leaders directly on some trade issues and the Paris Agreement, and the summit itself took place while eyes were also directed eastward, starting just after North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

598. At a Crossroads: Israeli Policy on UNIFIL

Author:
Assaf Orion
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Recent weeks have witnessed a change in the public position on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) among high ranking IDF personnel. Senior IDF officers have addressed Hezbollah’s military activity in Lebanon, regarding both the Iranian-supported production of weapon systems in Lebanon and open, provocative intelligence gathering along the Blue Line. Prominent in this context was an exchange between IDF Deputy Chief of the General Staff Major General Aviv Kochavi and UNIFIL Commander Major General Michael Beary on June 11, 2017 during the visit to Israel by US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. It was reported that after Beary praised the quiet in his Area of Responsibility, and said that there was no need for a change in UNIFIL activity in the sector, Kochavi took issue with this statement, saying that the Lebanese army was preventing UNIFIL forces from entering built-up areas, thereby abetting the continuation of Hezbollah activity in populated terrain.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel

599. The North Korean Challenge: Insights from the Far East for the Middle East

Author:
Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
On July 4, 2017, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of flying a distance of over 6,000 kilometers. With the test, the first of its kind for Pyongyang, North Korea sought to highlight its ability to threaten United States territory, not merely American forces stationed in Northeast Asia. The missile, which was in the air for nearly 40 minutes, was launched specifically on American Independence Day, a few days after the meeting between US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who favors a conciliatory approach to North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

600. India and Israel: A Strategic Alliance?

Author:
Oded Eran
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The second decade of the twenty-first century has brought tremendous shifts in Israel's map of international relations, amounting to a new set of formal and informal alliances. The visit to Israel by Indian Prime Minister the Honorable Narendra Modi (July 4-6, 2017) can be seen as one of the milestones in this process.
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
India and Israel