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561. Beginning of the End of Reformasi? Malaysia’s August 2023 State Polls

Author:
Bridget Welsh
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On August 12th, Malaysia held elections in six states, with voters from nearly a third of the country’s population eligible to vote. The results were a rebuke of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s eight-month leadership. The conservative Islamist ethno-nationalist opposition Perikatan Nasional, comprised of the Islamist party PAS and ultra-ethnonationalist Malay party Bersatu led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, gained 61 seats out of 245 and 49% of the popular vote. Given the unevenness of Malaysia’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery and the challenges of Anwar’s coalition ‘unity’ government, it is important to note that this coalition comprises his pro-reform Pakatan Harapan, his former political foe, the Malay nationalist United Malays National Organization (UMNO)-dominated Barisan Nasional (BN), and regional parties from Borneo. This alliance came together after the 2022 general election, which resulted in a hung parliament. Anwar’s preoccupation with promoting himself rather than focusing on policy programs made these election results somewhat expected. Little had been done to effectively communicate a cohesive program to the electorate or to shore up the legitimacy of a new friends-and-foes elitist government that holds the majority in parliament but remains unknown to the majority of voters. Instead, Anwar’s government relied on short-term populist initiatives that only served to fuel perceptions of seeking political security rather than leadership confidence in government.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Identity Politics
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Southeast Asia

562. Historical Background and Current State of the Grassroots Democracy: Case Study of Four Asian Regions

Author:
Sri Nuryanti and Hansu Park
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Democracy’s authority and legitimacy relies on people’s participation. In modern democracies, representatives elected by the people are the main actors in political processes, as society has been more complex and policies have become increasingly specialized. Nevertheless, people’s direct participation is an essential part of democratic governance, especially at the local level. This direct democracy includes referendums, recalls, petitions, as well as participatory planning and budgeting. Moreover, active approaches such as mobilizing civil society organizations (CSOs) or protesting can be considered “grassroots democracy.” The word “grassroots” is mostly used as a metaphor for ‘sub-national level’ or ‘marginalized sectors,’ but citizens’ direct and collective actions for bringing about political change and improving democracy are not confined to a certain region or group. Citizens in several Asian countries have struggled to resist against authoritarian regimes and establish democratic constitutions and governments. Movements against dictatorship, military regimes, or the suppression of fundamental rights are still ongoing in some regions. In addition, people under democratic regimes continue spontaneous actions to oversee officials, ensure and solidify civil rights, and push politicians to implement policies and budgets in favor of citizens’ common interests. This article will cover cases from four Asian countries, demonstrating how grassroots democracy efforts have incited more democratic and participatory regimes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Protests, Legitimacy, and Democratic Institutions
Political Geography:
Asia

563. Los Emiratos Árabes Unidos: ¿una potencia militar emergente en Oriente Medio?

Author:
Santiago Ott
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
En el año 2014, el periódico norteamericano The Washington Post publicó un artículo que versaba en torno a las capacidades militares y el rol desempeñado por las fuerzas armadas de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU) en diversas operaciones de combate en Medio Oriente. Según reza la nota, el por entonces general retirado del Cuerpo de Marines, James Mattis, junto con otros oficiales de los servicios armados de los Estados Unidos, habían comenzado a dirigirse al pequeño estado del Golfo Pérsico bajo el apodo "little Sparta," en clara referencia a la antigua ciudad-estado griega conocida por sus destacadas tradiciones marciales. Mientras que para algunos esta etiqueta puede resultar exagerada, la misma refleja en buena medida el espíritu que ha tenido la política exterior y de seguridad internacional llevada a cabo por la federación en los últimos años.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East and UAE

564. Proyecciones para el Medio Oriente

Author:
Diego Fossati
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
La guerra en Ucrania, el juicio a Donald Trump y otros temas menores han desviado la atención respecto de Medio Oriente; sin embargo, la región sigue estando vigente con un número importante de temas que tienen impacto regional e internacional. Este artículo tiene como objetivo, entonces, llamar la atención sobre qué aspectos marcarán la agenda de la política internacional en la región.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East

565. Arabia Saudita ante una disyuntiva, ¿Occidente u Oriente?

Author:
Federico Franceschini
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
La reciente visita en diciembre de 2022 del presidente Xi Jinping a Riad ha sido motivo de intensos y preocupados análisis por parte de politólogos y analistas, que leyeron en la bienvenida otorgada al mandatario chino la culminación del alejamiento de Arabia Saudita de su alianza con Washington. Inmediatas fueron las comparaciones con el viaje en julio del presidente norteamericano Joe Biden. Los periodistas internacionales buscaron, analizando sonrisas y formas de saludos, encontrar diferencias de trato como elemento discriminante para un eventual favoritismo de una potencia sobre la otra.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

566. Un año después...

Author:
Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Este artículo pretende inducir una reflexión sobre las consecuencias de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, que ya dura nueve años, particularmente después de la invasión total el 24 de febrero de 2022, y su impacto en el escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, War, Sanctions, Global South, Alliance, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

567. Visible Limits of the Sino-Russian Unlimited Partnership: Are Spheres of Influence Changing in Central Asia?

Author:
Eka Javakhishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine is not only causing enormous militarypolitical and economic damage to the Kremlin, but it is also gradually eroding Moscow’s traditional spheres of influence. While the Kremlin has directed all its resources to wage the war in Ukraine, Russia’s “ally” China is not wasting time, and is seeking to increase its economic and political involvement with the countries of Central Asia. China’s recent moves reveal a crack in Beijing and Moscow’s “unlimited” friendship, as the leaders of China and Russia called the partnership between the two countries back in February 2022. A visible manifestation of China’s growing influence in the Central Asian region was the China-Central Asia Summit held in May, where the host of the event, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, presented the “Grand Development Plan” for Central Asia. Russia was not invited to attend the summit; therefore, the future cooperation plans between the regional countries were discussed without a Russian representative. The great development plan proposed by China covers the main aspects of cooperation - infrastructural development, strengthening of economic ties, and security challenges in the region. By proposing the mentioned plan, Xi Jinping expressed his willingness to give a new impetus to China’s cooperation with Central Asian countries, but without the official involvement of Moscow. Holding such a high-level summit in China indicates that Beijing is trying to conduct regional policy on its own, without its “ally” Russia, and, in certain areas, without even taking into account Russia’s interests. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s influence on Central Asia and its role in the region is declining, and China has an ideal moment to fill the vacuum in the absence of Moscow. In addition, Beijing needs to develop its energy and transport land corridors to transport Chinese goods to Europe, for which China is ready to invest billions in Central Asia, and at the same time, to take the regional security initiative on itself. One of the main priorities of China’s foreign policy is to bring the resource-rich countries of Central Asia under its sphere of influence, which obviously means tightening Russia’s interests. It can be assumed that China is aiming to become the dominant political/ economic/military power in the region. Russia’s current military-economic difficulties caused by the war with Ukraine allow Beijing to offer regional countries more prosperity and security guarantees than Moscow can. So the following question arises - is the historically established influence of Russia in Central Asia weakening, while China is gradually strengthening its positioning in the region?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

568. Georgia-EU Economic Relations Dynamics and Cooperation Opportunities

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Rapprochement with the European Union in terms of legislation, trade, logistics, finance and economy, which should result in full-fledged integration, is a task of state importance for Georgia. Since Georgia gained independence, the European Union has been actively supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, helping to improve the infrastructure, digital and investment environment, and has played a major role in strengthening state institutions and the civil sector. In June 2014, an Association Agreement was signed between Georgia and the European Union, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, which entered into force in July 2016. In March 2017, the visa-free travel regime for Georgian citizens in the Schengen area was launched. In the same year, the Constitution of Georgia was changed to reflect the unwavering will of the Georgian people to integrate into the European and Euro-Atlantic space. Over the decades, the economic relations between Georgia and the European Union have made significant progress. The trade turnover between the parties, investment volume, the export and import goods nomenclature, the number of incoming and outgoing tourists, the volume of remittances, the degree of integration into the common regional transport networks and others are dynamically increasing. For Georgia, a small and developing economy, keeping the European Union as a reliable and stable partner is a critically important task. In this article, we will analyze the existing trade-economic relations between the parties, and review such important sectors as: foreign trade, foreign direct investments, remittances, tourism and the foreign exchange market, as well as outline the opportunities and future perspectives of bilateral regional economic cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

569. Analyzing Mass Demonstration and Counter-Demonstration in 21st Century Georgia

Author:
Theo Schenck
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In March 2023, Georgians took to the streets of Tbilisi to protest the bill “Law On Transparency of Foreign Influence.”1 This is not the first mass protest in the capital of a country that has already seen large-scale demonstrations in the more than 30 years since its independence, perhaps most notably in the 2003 Rose Revolution. In many cases, protest has produced real results and fulfilled the protesters’ demands. The goal of this article is to analyze the why and the how of Georgian mass demonstrations. It will seek to discuss and ultimately answer the question: “What patterns can be seen throughout events of large-scale demonstrations in Georgia’s recent history, and what lessons can be drawn from them?” In doing so, it will be necessary to differentiate between dividing forces and interests in Georgian society. Specifically, the opposing interests of liberal and nativist2 will need to be addressed. For the purposes of this article, “liberal” protests are associated with anti-authoritarian and pro-Western demonstrations, and “nativist” protests are associated with groups espousing illiberal, nationalistic ideologies and tend to demonstrate against what they view as Western influences on Georgia.
Topic:
Protests, Liberalism, Nativism, Demonstrations, and Activism
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Georgia

570. Relations and Confrontations Between the Iranian and Israeli Special Services

Author:
Vasil Ghlonti
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the last ten years, relations between Iran and Israel have become increasingly tense. The Islamic regime of Iran has declared Israel an enemy of the Shiite Islamic world, and has stated its intention to destroy it, while Israel has identified Iran, which actively finances its opponent Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist organizations, as its number one opponent and the main challenge to its statehood. What does Iran want? One of the main goals of its foreign policy is the destruction of the state of Israel and the expulsion of its ally, the USA, from the Middle East region. Iranian special services have a great role to play in this endeavor. What does Israel want? To neutralise the military and terrorist threat from Iran and put a stop to its nuclear program, with the Israeli special services actively engaged in fulfilling these objectives. The conflict between the parties that started in the Middle East has gone on to gain a global character. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of the confrontation between the special services of these two influential countries in the Middle East over the last ten years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Confrontation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel