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291. Bangladesh’s July demonstrations are much larger and more violent than in 2018 | Factsheet

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Thousands of students took to the streets across Bangladesh in early July after a High Court verdict reintroduced controversial quotas in government jobs1 on 5 June. The latest demonstrations come six years after the Awami League (AL) government’s 2018 decision to abolish the quotas, which also followed a nationwide student mobilization. Though the demonstrations began as a mainly peaceful movement at universities, they descended into violence in mid-July amid clashes between protest groups and police, with international media reporting over 200 fatalities and thousands of injuries. Police have arrested more than 2,000 people in connection with the violence.2 On 18 July, authorities blocked internet access and the next day implemented a nationwide curfew and deployed the army with shoot-on-sight powers.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Protests, Students, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

292. Five key takeaways from the 2024 elections in Mexico

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 2 June, Claudia Sheinbaum, running for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party, won the presidential election with almost 60% of votes, becoming the first female president in the country’s history. Alongside the presidential election, voters in Mexico concurrently participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. The election was marred by assassinations and targeted attacks on candidates and other political figures. ACLED records over 330 incidents of violence targeting political figures during the election campaign, between the start of the federal campaign on 1 March and the voting day on 2 June. At least 95 incidents led to one or more reported deaths. The level of violence during this election campaign marks a record high that eclipses the violence recorded in the 2018 general and 2021 federal elections, which had 254 and 257 events, respectively. The heightened levels of violence during the 2024 campaign period also affected candidates who were not directly targeted in violent incidents. At least 553 candidates requested state protection after receiving threats,1 while others decided to withdraw from the race as a result of threats.2 Notwithstanding, none of the main presidential candidates have made substantial proposals to address this issue.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Assassination, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

293. Fighting deepens around El Fasher in Sudan, al-Shabaab loses territory in Somalia, and police crack down on tax-related protests in Kenya

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A new major battle broke out in the North Darfur city of El Fasher, which has been surrounded since April by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). El Fasher is the only capital city in Darfur that is still controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF, backed by its allies, managed to conduct multiple offensive maneuvers on RSF strongholds in rural territories in North Darfur. During the clashes, the SAF claimed to have inflicted several casualties on the RSF, including killing the local operation commander. ACLED records at least 700 reported fatalities in connection with fighting around the city since the RSF began the attack on El Fasher on 10 April; around half of them — 320 — were recorded during the reporting period, 25 May to 21 June. Additionally, the violence has heavily hit health care facilities in North Darfur, causing them to go out of service and aggravating an already dire humanitarian situation. According to the Sudan Doctors’ Union, at least 4,000 people may have died from violence, diseases, and starvation in El Fasher alone.
Topic:
Civil War, Protests, Tax Systems, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Sudan

294. Between cooperation and competition: The struggle of resistance groups in Myanmar

Author:
Su Mon
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Myanmar has been mired in conflict for decades, but its direction changed dramatically after the 2021 coup and the proliferation of new armed groups resisting military rule. ACLED records over 2,600 new non-state actors participating in Myanmar’s conflict since April 2021 — accounting for 21% of all ACLED-recorded non-state armed groups worldwide. Most of these groups or their forerunners were formed by anti-coup protesters who could no longer peacefully resist the military’s increasingly systematic detention, torture, sexual assault, and killings of protesters. While many individuals consciously fled the military’s subjugation for arms training in other parts of Myanmar, local defense forces also grew organically in communities at risk of military reprisals and attacks. These groups were formed by people from all walks of life: local politicians, national party members, public servants, students, farmers, and more. After six weeks of escalating military repression, including police snipers shooting unarmed youth in the head, the first battle between the military and an armed resistance group organized by civilians was reported in Sagaing region: On 26 March 2021, the residents of Tamu town defended their protest sites with single-shot hunting rifles. The subsequent proliferation of new armed groups formed by civilians under hundreds of different local banners is now often collectively termed the ‘Spring Revolution.’1 The revolution has led to a new, fragmented conflict landscape in which the Myanmar military has struggled to check the advance of both new and old armed groups, and only retains control of the country through its unrivaled air power.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Cooperation, Competition, and Armed Resistance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

295. Syria: Which groups have been fighting each other and where?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Despite the recent coordination between opposition groups in the Military Operations Command (MOC) coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the future shape of Syria remains uncertain due to historical hostilities and ongoing divisions among the different armed groups throughout the country. ACLED data highlights previous confrontations between these groups since April 2020, when the territorial control of the country was frozen (see maps below). Although Islamic State fighters no longer control territory in Syria, their interactions with key actors — including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — remain an important dimension of the conflict.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Armed Conflict, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

296. Partnership of convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China convergence

Author:
Rahman Yaacob
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
It is unlikely that Ream Naval Base in Cambodia will be a Chinese military base or outpost such as the facility in Djibouti fully operated by the People’s Liberation Army. However, China could gain preferential access to the base or use its facilities there to collect intelligence against other states. The Cambodia–China defence convergence is driven by differing motives. Cambodia seeks a partner to modernise its military so it can meet perceived security threats from Thailand and Vietnam, while China wants to expand its political influence and military reach in Southeast Asia. New political and military leadership in Cambodia offers Australia and other like-minded partners an opportunity to deepen defence relations with the kingdom to counter China’s influence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Navy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Cambodia

297. The case for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank

Author:
Michelle Lyons, Roland Rajah, and Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The world faces a triple crisis of economic insecurity, climate change, and stalled development, but there are deep tensions between the policy agendas being deployed to address them. We propose a new Indo-Pacific multilateral bank that can turn these tensions into complementarities. The bank can accelerate clean energy funding by mobilising new public and private capital investments, primarily for projects in the Indo-Pacific’s developing economies. And it can create multilateral economic security by diversifying green supply chains to dilute the current excessive dependence on China. The bank would create benefits for both developing and advanced economies, fostering new industries and diversified, resilient markets while helping build the multilateral cooperation and capabilities needed to construct a more secure and sustainable world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Banking, Supply Chains, Economic Security, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

298. Deterrence and alliance power: Why the AUKUS submarines matter and how they can be delivered

Author:
Ross Babbage
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Significant progress has already been made in the program to deliver advanced nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The AUKUS partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom is well placed to deliver on its objectives in a reasonable timeframe. A largely unrecognised near-term benefit of AUKUS is that Australia will host up to five allied nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) within three years. These jointly crewed submarines will make a significant contribution to joint deterrence and theatre defence. By the mid-2030s, the AUKUS partners will have more than doubled the number of forward-deployed allied SSNs that can be operational in the critical first ten days of any Western Pacific crisis or conflict. Personnel expansion for the Royal Australian Navy will be one of the greatest challenges for the AUKUS program. Nevertheless, provided that upskilled Australian engineers and technical specialists are supplemented by British and American experts, this task will likely prove manageable.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Navy, Alliance, Deterrence, AUKUS, and Nuclear-Powered Submarines (SSNs)
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, and United States of America

299. Digitising the social safety net: Lessons from Indonesia

Author:
Hilman Palaon
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The digitisation of social safety nets can help drive inclusion and reduce poverty while fostering more resilient social and economic development. Indonesia’s experience offers important lessons for other countries in how to do so. There is no one-size-fits-all approach. Indonesia learned from international examples while developing specific solutions tailored to its needs. Experimentation, sustained political will, and keeping pace with fast-changing technology have been key to its success. A well-executed digitised social safety net offers direct operational gains, including by combatting inefficiency, fraud, and corruption in the provision of social welfare, many spin-off benefits such as expanding digital and financial literacy in society, and contributes to macro-level stability by managing economic shocks and enhancing public trust in government. The next steps in Indonesia’s journey should focus on incorporating digital ID and data analytics to improve the performance and integrity of an expanded social safety net system. Strengthening cybersecurity and data protection will also be critical. A key political test will be the recertification and eligibility agenda, to graduate citizens from social assistance programs once they are no longer in need of them.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Resilience, Digitization, Inclusion, and Social Assistance
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

300. The Ukraine effect: demise or rebirth of the global order?

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sharpened the commitment of Western governments to a liberal vision of international order. But it is a different story elsewhere. Many countries, particularly in the Global South, regard the rules-based order as an artificial Western construct, and the Ukraine war as a matter of geopolitics rather than norms and principles. Events in Ukraine have reinforced Washington’s views about two competing visions of global order — one democratic, the other autocratic. However, such binarism has little resonance beyond the West. For the Global South, the divide that matters is with the Global North. This is not only about relative influence and status in the international system, but also diverging priorities. A rules-based international order is achievable, but not as commonly imagined in the West. The post-Cold War template of unalloyed US global leadership and Western-dominated institutions is no longer tenable. The only viable order is one that is more inclusive and representative, reflecting a world where power is increasingly diffuse, and global cooperation is critical in meeting threats such as climate change and human insecurity.
Topic:
Multilateralism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine