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211. How Washington Emboldened the Houthis

Author:
Noam Raydan and Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond. Since the Houthis launched their assault on global shipping in November, the United States and its partners have scrambled for ways to restore calm and commerce to the Red Sea. First, on December 18, Washington assembled a maritime coalition designed to boost the U.S. presence in the area and promote regional security. Then, in January, the United States started intercepting Iranian military shipments bound for the Houthis and issued multiple warnings to the group. Finally, after nearly two months of continuous attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of strikes against the Houthis’ facilities. But these attacks have not halted or seemingly slowed the onslaught. The group has continued to lob missiles and drones, prompting continued strikes by Washington and its allies...
Topic:
Maritime, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

212. Tunisia at the Crossroads: What Role for the United States in a Multipolar World?

Author:
Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The United States, in recognizing the limits of its traditional “bloc-building” approach, faces the imperative to adapt to a multipolar reality. Embracing multipolarity as a fundamental principle of its foreign policy could pave the way for more flexible and effective international engagements. In today’s global landscape, the clear-cut divisions of the Cold War era have given way to a complex web of challenges and a multipolar world marked by competitive dynamics. This shift demands a nuanced approach from the United States, a move away from seeking dominance through large-scale coalitions against adversaries like China, since such strategies risk escalating tensions in a world that lacks the bipolar stability of the past. In this global reconfiguration, the role of “swing countries” like Tunisia gains unprecedented importance. In the midst of North Africa's political upheaval, countries like Tunisia stand at a critical crossroads, evaluating the merits of their longstanding alliances with Western nations against the enticing prospects of deepening relations with Eastern powers, particularly Russia and China. Against this backdrop, the United States has yet to articulate a definitive stance on engaging with nations such as Tunisia, where authoritarian tendencies are on the rise and anti-Western sentiments increasingly pronounced. This ambiguity raises important questions about Washington’s strategic approach in a region caught between historical affiliations and the lure of new partnerships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

213. A Pathway to Addiction: Tracing Drug-Trafficking Networks in Lebanon’s Roumieh Prison

Author:
Fatima al-Othman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Roumieh’s drug networks have been an ongoing and pervasive challenge for Lebanon. Over the course of a single year in Lebanon’s Roumieh prison, an upstanding young Syrian doctor referred to here as “Maher”— detained in an attempt to join his family in Lebanon—became a patient in need of rehabilitation for drug addiction. Maher’s descent into drug use while in prison exemplifies the much larger problem of drug smuggling and consumption for which Roumieh prison is becoming increasingly notorious in Lebanon. Lebanon’s largest prison is located in Roumieh, Matn District, east of Beirut, and usually houses about 5,500 inmates. Considered one of the most overcrowded prisons, Roumieh houses both pre-trial prisoners and those who have been convicted. It has separate sections for young teens, women, and men. Given its large size and testimonies as to the prison’s pervasive drug networks, this prison is becoming a contributor to Lebanon’s struggle with drug addiction in its own right.
Topic:
Crime, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

214. The Islamic State on the March in Africa

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Local branches now control territory in Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique, setting the stage for new foreign fighter mobilizations, resource extraction opportunities, and perhaps even external operations against the West. Nearly five years after losing territorial control in its core areas of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State is once again racking up territorial gains around Africa. In Mali, IS forces seized portions of the rural eastern Menaka region and the Ansongo district in southern Gao last year, while foreign fighters reportedly became more interested in traveling to Wilayat Sahel, the group’s self-styled “Sahel Province.” Elsewhere, IS “provinces” in Somalia and Mozambique have taken over various towns in the Puntland and Cabo Delgado regions over the past two months, further destabilizing the area and in some cases jeopardizing important natural gas projects.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Africa

215. A Libyan Solution to a Libyan Challenge

Author:
Moin Kikhia
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Perhaps now is the time for the United Nations to step back. It is also time for our leaders, from East and West, to recognize that a joint way forward is possible. The eyes of the world may be fixed on Gaza, with Ukraine and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping also jostling for attention. But there is another country which the world should be watching intently. Libya is of key geostrategic importance. Five times larger than Germany, it occupies almost 2,000 kilometers of strategically sensitive Mediterranean coastline. It is also a conduit route for huge numbers of desperate migrants and refugees heading for Europe, with over 700,000 clustering along its shores. Libya also has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa today–a vital concern as the Ukraine conflict continues to threaten the security of Europe’s energy supplies. But it is also a country divided by guns and politics, with two competing governments dividing East and West, each backed and militarily supported by a range of competing foreign powers. In early 2021, the Government of National Unity (GNU) based in the West was put in place through a United Nations-backed process as an interim administration which was supposed to deliver democratic national elections in December of that same year, with the intention of establishing a more permanent Libyan government. Yet three years later the GNU remains in place in Tripoli. It justifies this persistence by arguing that the country is not ready for elections, and it still enjoys a grudging degree of international recognition due to its initial remit.
Topic:
United Nations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

216. Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
New regional and international factors are creating conditions conducive to ending their decades-long conflict, with potentially important consequences for Iran, the Ukraine war, and Turkey. Against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the escalation of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the South Caucasus is quietly undergoing a profound transformation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are slowly moving towards signing a peace treaty. If they do, this outcome would have profound implications for the South Caucasus and Russia, Europe, and Iran. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is both ethnic and territorial and has spun for over thirty years. Specifically, the dispute is over Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh as Armenians call it), internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but until recently controlled by a breakaway separatist ethnic Armenian regime backed by the Armenian government. This is the longest-running conflict in the post-Soviet space, one of several so-called “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s periphery. In the last several years, observers periodically declared that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan was imminent, but it never materialised. However, there are several reasons why this time may be different.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peacebuilding, and Frozen Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

217. Sudanese Women Trapped Between Conflict and Political Marginalization in Peace Negotiations

Author:
Areej Elhag
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Now more than ever, it is crucial to effectively include women's issues in peace talks and transitional negotiations, ensuring that their representation is proportionate to their realities and contributions to society. In the ongoing war in Sudan, there is an insufficiently narrated tragedy—the plight of women who are paying a hefty price for this war and are simultaneously being kept from the table in the discussion of how this war can end. International Women's Month coincides with a difficult period in Sudan, where women are facing various forms of violence and violations, including rape, sexual assault, kidnapping and the loss of providers. This is all occurring in a context marked by extreme poverty and lack of medical facilities, especially those related to sexual and reproductive health. The war that erupted on April 15, 2023 between the Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces has led to a humanitarian crisis that UN reports have ranked among the largest globally—stating that nearly 8 million people have been displaced due to the war, 88 percent of whom are women and children. There are more than 4 million women and girls at risk of sexual assaults, and alarming reports have appeared of women being sold in markets in Sudan. The painful irony is that Sudanese women were at the forefront of the Sudanese revolution that overthrew Omar al-Bashir's government on April 11, 2019. Despite their contributions and sacrifices, they found themselves marginalized and excluded from decision-making positions in the subsequent transitional government. The promises of allocating 40 percent of the Sudanese parliament’s seats for women remained unfulfilled. When the actual figures emerged, they reflected a failure to meet Sudanese women's aspirations and acknowledge their vital role in society and the political process.
Topic:
Women, Negotiation, Marginalization, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

218. Navigating Cybersecurity and Surveillance: Iran's Dual Strategy for National Security

Author:
Nima Khorrami
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations. Discussions and debates surrounding the utilization and significance of cyberspace and artificial intelligence in Iran primarily revolve around two key perspectives: viewing them as integral components of national security strategy, and understanding cyber capabilities and AI as essential tools for safeguarding national interests. Within the context of Tehran’s extensively publicized forward defense doctrine, it is reasonable to expect that Tehran would develop (AI assisted) offensive cyber capabilities, allowing it to infiltrate its adversaries’ systems and execute preemptive actions against perceived threats. A critical prerequisite for doing so, in turn, would be to put in place robust surveillance capabilities which can alarm the officials of any potential incoming attack. However, available evidence suggests a dire lack of such capabilities not least because Iran’s critical infrastructure has been the target of frequent cyberattacks, allegedly originating from Israel.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

219. U.S. Returnees from Syria Reveal Much About the Repatriation Challenge

Author:
Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The latest U.S. repatriation is an important model for the international community to follow, but much work still needs to be done on resolving the precarious detainee dilemma before the situation in northeast Syria deteriorates further. On May 7, the United States repatriated eleven Americans and one noncitizen from northeast Syria, its largest repatriation of individuals affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) to date. The group included Brandy Salman and her nine U.S.-born children (five of whom are now adults), as well as two minor children of Abdelhamid al-Madioum, who was repatriated in 2020 and pleaded guilty to supporting terrorism a year later. Notably, one of the two Madioum children is a U.S. citizen and the other is not. The move brings the total number of Americans repatriated to fifty-one. Between 2013 and 2019, an estimated 300 Americans joined or attempted to join IS and other jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq—part of a wave of more than 53,000 men, women, and minors from roughly eighty countries who did the same. Since the fall of the IS territorial “caliphate” in March 2019, successive U.S. administrations have led the charge in encouraging these countries to repatriate their citizens. Although the number of people involved in this week’s repatriation is small, their cases set a potent precedent and illustrate the urgency of accelerating the pace—while also showing why the process has been such a challenge.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Islamic State, Detention, Repatriation, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

220. North Africa in an Era of Great Power Competition: Challenges and Opportunities for the United States

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya, Louis Dugit-Gros, Ben Fishman, Sabina Henneberg, and Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington can demonstrate its decisive edge in areas like climate change remediation and economic development, while highlighting the many dangers posed by partnership with Russia and China. This week, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied will be among the leaders attending the tenth China–Arab States Cooperation Forum in Beijing. The event deserves U.S. attention, even as foreign policy minds remain focused on Ukraine and Gaza, because North African countries are strategically significant to U.S. defense and economic interests. Viewed through the lens of great power competition, China generally advances its economic interests by developing local infrastructure (e.g., ports), whereas the other main U.S. competitor—Russia—favors a security-based approach, supporting whatever actor it believes will help advance its goals (e.g., Gen. Khalifa Haftar in Libya). Such inroads threaten American interests and require responses that address the region both holistically and state-by-state. In this Policy Note, five experts argue for more robust U.S. engagement in North Africa against the anti-liberal designs of Beijing and Moscow. An effective approach, they contend, would amplify the benefits of cooperation in areas like climate change remediation and economic development, while highlighting the dangers posed by America’s rivals to national growth, freedom, and—especially in the case of China—sovereignty.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North Africa, and United States of America