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2151. Can the Law Help? Debating Security Council Inaction on Syria

Author:
Katja Creutz
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The inaction of the UN Security Council with respect to the Syrian crisis has generated widespread aversion. Decision-makers and international humanitarian organizations have debated the particular aspects in which the Council has failed to take measures, such as the widespread abuses that civilians are suffering in the war and the prevailing impunity of the violators. International legal scholars have, however, debated whether the Security Council could be legally obliged to act in respect of a mass atrocity crisis. This represents a novel departure from the established idea that the Security Council has the right to act. Although this emerging position is controversial, it shows that the argumentation in connection to Security Council inaction is toughening up through increased resort to hard law. Many, but not all, of the advocates for imposing a duty to act on the Security Council refer to the Responsibility to Protect norm. But the exact measures that fall under the scope of the duty to act remain unclear and context-bound: there can be no specific elaboration of what the Security Council must do. The most concrete discussion has related to the limitation of the veto use of the five permanent members. Yet, the international debate does not shy away from discussing the legal consequences of Security Council inaction for the organ itself, or its member states. Until now, few scholars have sought to analyse if resort to law really can be beneficial to the overall goal of making the Security Council react to mass atrocity situations. This analysis therefore strives to discuss the elements of the debate and to answer the question ‘Can the law help?’ in remedying inaction. It will be posited that the law is no panacea when it comes to resolving when or by what means the Security Council should react when it comes to atrocity crimes. Its main value lies in building a decision-making environment in the Security Council which is open, explanatory and dialogue-based.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Syrian War, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2152. Syria and the Islamic State

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Syria’s nearly four year civil war took a dramatic new turn this month as the United States and its coalition partners began bombing militants from the Islamic State group (formerly know as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jubhat al-Nusra. The U.S. intervention opens up profound uncertainties about the objective and targets of the military action, the responses of the dizzying array of actors on the ground, and the potential for escalation. In December 2013, POMEPS published “The Political Science of Syria’s War,” a collection of original essays by many of the top civil wars and insurgencies scholars, which helped to place the Syrian war into a broad theoretical and comparative perspective. This new collection of articles originally published on “The Monkey Cage” explores the evolution of the conflict, the nature of the Islamic State, and key debates about Syria’s horrific war.
Topic:
War and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

2153. Iraq Between Maliki and the Islamic State

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Iraq’s long-simmering political conflicts and violence erupted in June with the stunning capture of Mosul and advances toward Baghdad by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The collapse of the Iraqi army and the rapid seizure of territory by ISIS took most observers by surprise, but the crisis had been developing for years. This POMEPS Briefing collects more than a dozen recent articles by academics writing for The Monkey Cage and other leading online publications that explore both the immediate crisis and its underlying causes.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq

2154. Turkey’s Turmoil

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan occupied a dominant political position not too long ago. In June 2011, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won nearly 60 percent of the seats in parliament while expanding its lead over its closest competitor. Turkey seemed well primed to take advantage of the Arab uprisings, with its independent foreign policy and criticism of Israel playing well with Arab audiences. Erdogan even seemed keen to find a resolution to the long-running struggle with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and reconcile with the country’s Kurdish citizens. Those days seem distant indeed. For at least the last six months, Erdogan has struggled to respond to sustained popular protests, a growing corruption scandal, a stalled peace process with the PKK, a deeply unpopular and ineffective Syria policy, and dissent from within his own party. How did Erdogan’s fortunes reverse so quickly? Are his problems primarily the natural decay of a leader too long in power or do they speak to deeper problems with his party’s ideology or the foundations of Turkish democracy? The 14 deeply researched and analytically powerful Foreign Policy Middle East Channel essays collected in this POMEPS Briefing go deeply into the origins, dynamics, and likely implications of Turkey’s new political scene.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

2155. New Vision of Africa's Development: The role of NEPAD and South-South Cooperation

Author:
Ibrahim Assane Mayaki
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
It is a great pleasure for me to be here tonight as the head of the New Partnership for Africa's Development and it is an honor to have this conversation, but because I would like to have it on a conversation's mode, with one of you, in order to identify what are the main characteristics of Africa's evolutions to the last -let us say- fifty years, and how these evolutions have framed a radically differing context from what Africa was 25 or 20 years ago; there is an invisible transformation that is taking place, and there are visible aspects of that transformation that is taking place, and there are visible aspects of that transformation that I would like to highlight.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

2156. Current Economic and Financial Development in Africa

Author:
Omar Kabbaj
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
I will try to describe what Africa is in my view today and how it came to where it stands at present, before addressing its perspectives and closing by a few words on the relationship between Africa and Latin America, and between by own country, Morocco, and the rest of the African continent, as well as Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Morocco

2157. Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?

Author:
Michiel De Pooter, Patrice Robitaille, Ian Walker, and Michael Zdinak
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better anchored over the past decade in all three countries, as a testament to the improved credibility of the central banks in these countries when it comes to keeping inflation low. That said, one-year inflation compensation in the far future displays some sensitivity to at least one macroeconomic data release per country. However, the impact of these releases is small and it does not appear that investors systematically alter their expectations for inflation as a result of surprises in monetary policy, consumer prices, or real activity variables. Finally, long-run inflation expectations in Brazil appear to have been less well anchored than in Chile and Mexico.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Inflation, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

2158. Bank Ownership, Lending, and Local Economic Performance During the 2008-2010 Financial Crisis

Author:
Nicholas Coleman and Leo Feler
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While the finance literature often equates government banks with political capture and capital misallocation, these banks can help mitigate financial shocks. This paper examines the role of Brazil's government banks in preventing a recession during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Government banks in Brazil provided more credit, which offset declines in lending by private banks. Areas in Brazil with a high share of government banks experienced increases in lending, production, and employment during the crisis compared to areas with a low share of these banks. We find no evidence that lending was politically targeted or that it caused productivity to decline in the short-run.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, Local, Lending, and Banking
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

2159. Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications

Author:
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Daniel F. Waggoner
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions and the answers have been positive and definite in both cases. While the identification of SVARs with sign and zero restrictions is theoretically attractive because it allows the researcher to remain agnostic with respect to the responses of the key variables of interest, we show that current implementation of these techniques does not respect the agnosticism of the theory. These algorithms impose additional sign restrictions on variables that are seemingly unrestricted that bias the results and produce misleading confidence intervals. We provide an alternative and efficient algorithm that does not introduce any additional sign restriction, hence preserving the agnosticism of the theory. Without the additional restrictions, it is hard to support the claim that either optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations or deficit-financed tax cuts work best at improving output. Our algorithm is not only correct but also faster than current ones.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Tax Systems, Economic Theory, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2160. Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison

Author:
John Rogers, Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on bond yields, stock prices and exchange rates. We use common methodologies for the four central banks, with daily and intradaily asset price data. We emphasize the use of intradaily data to identify the causal effect of monetary policy surprises. We find that these policies are effective in easing financial conditions when policy rates are stuck at the zero lower bound, apparently largely by reducing term premia.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Asia, and England