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161. Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Changes in Russian Politics from the 1990s to 2024

Author:
Mamuka Komakhia
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the post-Soviet period, the Kremlin’s policy regarding the separatist regions of Georgia, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, underwent several stages of transformation. In the 1990s, Moscow positioned itself as a neutral mediator between the conflicting parties. However, following the August 2008 war and the subsequent recognition of the “independence” of these separatist regions, as well as the deployment of armed forces, Moscow became their main ally and security guarantor. Since 2022, after the onset of full-scale military aggression in Ukraine, Moscow has intensified efforts to increase its influence on these occupied regions, aiming for their full integration into Russia’s political, economic, and legal space. The article discusses the stages of transformation in Russian policy towards the occupied regions of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region from the 1990s to 2024, detailing and analysing changes at each stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Separatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Abkhazia, and Tskhinvali

162. Where Georgia's U-Turn Comes from and Where it is Heading

Author:
Kakha Gogolashvili
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
For 30 years, Georgian governments have pursued European integration, reflecting the will of the majority. They have implemented European standards and reforms, culminating in 2022 with the ‘European Perspective’ and EU candidate status in 2023. Then, unexpectedly, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party began to ignore EU recommendations, prioritizing state sovereignty and independent decision-making. This stance, reminiscent of Putin’s “sovereign democracy,” led to controversial actions like resisting judicial reforms and improving the election code. Instead of aligning with the EU, the government began strengthening its economic ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. The most notable action was adopting the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, mirroring Russia’s 2012 law aimed at controlling civil society and the media. This provoked protests, divided society, and alarmed international partners, increasing Georgia’s isolation from the democratic world and its vulnerability to authoritarian powers, especially Russia. Thus, the key questions are: Why has GD chosen this risky path? With most Georgians supporting European integration, how should the EU and the international community respond to GD’s policies steering the country away from Europe?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

163. Exploring the Application of AI in the Public Sector: The Case of Estonia and Lessons for Georgia

Author:
Salome Abramishvili
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming societies globally, offering unprecedented opportunities across sectors. The integration of AI into the public sector promises enhanced service delivery, efficiency, and significant decision-making improvements. Nations worldwide recognize AI’s strategic importance and are adopting National AI Strategies (NASs) to guide its development and deployment. This paper explores AI’s evolution and impact in the public sector, focusing on applications and strategic frameworks using Estonia as an example—a pioneer in AI governance within the EU. Estonia’s approach serves as a model for Georgia, a country with post-Soviet roots and EU integration aspirations. By examining Estonia’s National AI Strategy and its implementation, this paper identifies key lessons and recommendations for Georgia to develop its tailored strategy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Public Sector, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Estonia, and Georgia

164. The Weimar Triangle's Path to Leadership Moments and Future Prospects

Author:
Nino Macharashvili
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In two separate speeches—one at the Sorbonne University in April and the other during his visit to Germany at the end of May—French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe is “fighting to the death” (Macron 2024). Indeed, Europeans who are caught between Xi Jinping’s China, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and the future possibility of Donald Trump’s USA, are the ones who most need unity at this point, but it is precisely because of this sense of insecurity that European unity is eroding. Macron’s last visit to Germany (Scally 2024) showed that Franco-German relations were only a facade manifestation of friendship and solidarity, and that the French and German governments are no longer able to independently decide on the geopolitical direction of Europe. Moreover, even if they can agree on a specific agenda, it is unlikely that it will be shared by the rest of the European Union. The solution to this dilemma is to strengthen the Franco-German union and add Poland as a third member. This makes sense, given that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced the differences in the three states’ perceptions of European security, and renewed the Weimar format for collaboration in the interest of peace and security in Europe. In our article, we will try to briefly answer the following questions: 1. What is the Weimar Triangle? 2. What political factors led to its activation? and 3. What changes might it undergo in the future?
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Weimar
Political Geography:
Europe

165. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups

Author:
Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-­operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America

166. Solving the Double Climate Migration Paradox

Author:
Kira Vinke and Mechthild Becker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Human interference with the environment is fundamentally – and rapidly – reshaping geographies. Therefore, the question of where people will be able to live in safety and prosperity needs reconciling with these diametrically opposed trends: the continued use of fossil fuels, migration deterrence, and labor shortages. PDF Cover of PDF version of DGAP Commentary No. 4 application/pdf206.84 KB Share Discourses on migration and asylum-related issues have become increasingly contested in Western democracies. Anti-migrant rhetoric continues to gain momentum, particularly ahead of elections. This trend could be observed around the 2024 European elections when voters throughout the EU made migration a top priority in their decision-making. Similarly, in the United States, immigration on the southern border has become a deeply contested issue in the upcoming presidential election. “The migrant” has arguably become the scapegoat for economic and social problems in contemporary politics. The UK’s norm-defeating and dysfunctional asylum deal with Rwanda, now terminated, is just one example of how politics feeds such discriminatory narratives. While migration issues have received extensive media coverage and become increasingly politicized, a growing driver of migration has slipped down the list of political priorities: climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Migration Policy, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. NATO at 75: Time to Deliver on Its Promises What Has to Happen at the Washington Summit

Author:
Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
NATO heads of state and government will meet in Washington on July 11, 2024 to mark the Alliance’s 75th anniversary. Not only will the leaders have to elect a new secretary-general, the anniversary will take place in the midst of an explosive global situation. As the war in Ukraine continues, the prospect of a second presidential term for ­Donald Trump also worries the Alliance. In order to strengthen NATO’s ability to defend its members in this time of multiple crises, leaders need to advance seven specific topics. Making headway on these could make the summit historic.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

168. The Impact and Limits of Sanctions on Russia’s Telecoms Industry

Author:
Maria Kolomychenko
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The West responded to Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine with unprecedented sanctions targeting its entire tech industry. While the sanctions on the telecoms sector have not had the intended destructive effect on Russia’s war machine, they have created significant negative side effects for its populace. Russian propaganda is using them to reinforce its narrative that “the West is fighting Russian citizens, and Vladimir Putin is protecting them.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sanctions, Economy, Telecommunications, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia

169. Banning YouTube in Russia: Just a Matter of Time

Author:
Philipp Dietrich
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
YouTube is the last bastion of free expression and information in Russia, with over 93 million users. A ban on the platform would hurt democratic principles and freedom of speech in the country – and it is not a question of if but when. To prevent the further isolation of Russian society, democratic policymakers must act swiftly by urging Google to cooperate and to bolster YouTube’s infrastructure, as well as by reviewing sanctions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Social Media, Freedom of Expression, YouTube, and Freedom of Information
Political Geography:
Russia

170. The G7’s Geoeconomic Future: Insights from Conflicts with Russia, China, and Iran

Author:
Claudia Schmucker, Stormy-Annika Mildner, and Avi Shapiro
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In an increasingly conflictual global environment, the G7 has become a more and more important geoeconomic actor. Yet looking at the case studies of Russia, Iran, and China reveals that the geoeconomic role the G7 plays has been mixed. For the G7 countries to improve their geoeconomic impact, they need to align their interests and risk perceptions, as well as improve their ability to propose and enact geoeconomic measures. In addition, the G7 should bolster its partnerships with other democracies and like-minded countries.
Topic:
Partnerships, G7, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Asia