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2. From climate change to cyber attacks: Incipient financial-stability risks for the euro area
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The European Central Bank’s November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. On the whole, the ECB report is comprehensive and covers the main risks to euro-area financial stability, we highlight issues that deserve more attention.
- Topic:
- Governance, Finance, Central Bank, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3. Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Global trade and finance data indicates that the pre-2008 pace of economic globalisation has stalled or even reversed. The European Union has defied this trend, with trade flows and financial claims continuing to grow after the recovery from the 2008 global economic and financial crisis. Immigration, including intra-EU mobility, has also continued to increase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Immigration, European Union, Finance, Economic growth, Global Financial Crisis, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
4. A new look at net balances in the European Union’s next multiannual budget
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Whenever the European Union’s budget is discussed, much of the political focus is on net balances – whether countries pay in more than they receive – rather than on the broader overall positive effects of EU spending. The largest net contributor countries have sought to limit their contributions, leading to the build-up of an ad-hoc, complex, opaque and regressive system of revenue corrections.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, European Union, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5. Effectiveness of cohesion policy: learning from the project characteristics that produce the best results
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This study by Zsolt Darvas, Antoine Mathieu Collin, Jan Mazza, and Catarina Midões analyses the characteristics of cohesion policy projects that can contribute to successful outcomes. Their analysis is based on a literature survey, an econometric analysis and interviews with stakeholders. About two dozen project characteristics are considered, and their association with economic growth is studied using a novel methodology. Based on the findings, the study concludes with recommendations for cohesion policy reform
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This policy contribution investigates the performance of the design, implementation and effectiveness of cohesion policy, the most evaluated EU tool for promoting economic convergence. By analysing the effects of cohesion policy on economic growth through reviewing literature, conducting empirical research by comparing regions, as well as considering attitudes and expectations collected through interviewing stakeholders, the authors provide reform recommendations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Institutional investors and home bias in Europe’s Capital Markets Union
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Dirk Schoenmaker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Integrated capital markets facilitate risk sharing across countries. Lower home bias in financial investments is an indicator of risk sharing. We highlight that existing indicators of equity home bias in the literature suffer from incomplete coverage because they consider only listed equities. We also consider unlisted equites and show that equity home bias is much higher than previous studies perceived. We also analyse home bias in debt securities holdings, and euro-area bias. We conclude that European Union membership may foster financial integration and reduce information barriers, which sometimes limit cross-country diversification. We calculate home bias indicators for the aggregate of the euro area as if the euro area was a single country and report remarkable similarity between the euro area and the United States in terms of equity home bias, while there is a higher level of debt home bias in the United States than in the euro area as a whole. We develop a new pension fund foreign investment restrictions index to control for the impact of prudential regulations on the ability of institutional investors to diversify geographically across borders. Our panel regression estimates for 25 advanced and emerging countries in 2001-14 provide strong support for the hypothesis that the larger the assets managed by institutional investors (defined as pension funds, insurance companies and investment funds), the smaller the home bias and thereby the greater the scope for risk sharing.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Economic structure, and Europe Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
8. The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- World Policy Journal
- Institution:
- World Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- BRUSSELS—High unemployment, bleak economic outlook, high public and private debts, dysfunctional banks, weak competitiveness, and an unfavorable external environment are just a few of the challenges facing southern members of the euro zone. Despite these hurdles, the ever-optimistic European Council and other leaders said in January that the euro crisis had bottomed out. Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, proclaimed, "The worst is behind us, in particular the existential threat to the euro." Then there was Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), who declared that "the darkest clouds over the euro area [have] subsided."
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Portugal, and Ireland
9. Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Co-Movements in the New and Old Members
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Gyorgy Szapary
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- It is generally recognised that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyse the synchronisation of business cycles between the EMU-12 and the eight new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analysed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronisation. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronisation with EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronisation. There has been a significant increase in the synchronisation of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it cannot be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe