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Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Author William R. Cline

1. Further Statistical Debate on "Too Much Finance"

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Cline critiques OECD findings on "too much finance," which seem to imply that the optimal amount of credit in an economy is zero, given the linear specification of the main tests. If these results were taken literally, there would be a radical policy implication: Growth would be maximized by completely eliminating credit finance. He then finds that the negative impact of additional finance on growth is reversed when the appropriate (purchasing-power-parity) per capita income is applied and country fixed effects are removed. Separate tests for countries with intermediated finance below and above 60 percent of GDP show a significant positive effect of finance on growth in the lower group but an insignificant effect in the higher group. He also responds to critics of his earlier study.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Testing the Modigliani-Miller Theorem of Capital Structure Irrelevance for Banks

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some advocates of far higher capital requirements for banks invoke the Modigliani-Miller theorem as grounds for judging that associated costs would be minimal. The M&M theorem holds that the average cost of capital to the firm does not depend on its capital structure (ratio of equity finance to debt finance), because any reduction in capital cost from switching to higher leverage using lower-cost debt is exactly offset by an induced increase in the unit cost of higher-cost equity capital as a consequence of the associated rise in risk. Statistical tests for large US banks in 2002–13 find that less than half of this M&M offset attains in practice. Higher capital requirements would thus impose increases in lending costs, with associated output costs from lower capital formation. These costs to the economy would need to be compared with benefits from lower risk of banking crises to arrive at optimal levels of capital requirements.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Budget
Political Geography:
Global Focus