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Begin New Search Topic Climate Change Author Warwick McKibbin

1. Confronting the Crisis of International Climate Policy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Fergus Green, and Greg Picker
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
After an extraordinary build-up, stratospheric public expectations, unprecedented political attention, and the presence of more than 100 heads of State, the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference spectacularly failed to produce an international response to climate change commensurate with the scale of the problem. Instead, the Conference revealed with great drama the fundamental weaknesses of the existing framework for international climate governance. Even the Copenhagen Accord – a 3-page, heavily-qualified, nonbinding Statement of political intent, and the singular achievement of the Conference – was vigorously resisted by a number of countries when it was submitted to the full plenary for adoption on the final night of negotiations. As exhausted delegates lay lifeless, strewn across the cavernous negotiating hall watching Venezuelan officials block the adoption of the Accord because it made reference to the role of market mechanisms in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, even the most ardent advocate of the 20-year old UN climate process could not have helped but think 'there must be a better way'.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

2. The economic and environmental effects of border tax adjustments for climate change policy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
For the foreseeable future, climate change policy will be considerably more stringent in some countries than in others. Indeed, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change explicitly states that developed countries must take meaningful action before any obligations are to be placed on developing countries. However, differences in climate policy will lead to differences in energy costs, and to concerns about competitive advantage. In high-cost countries, there will be political pressure to impose border adjustments, or “green tariffs”, on imports from countries with little or no climate policy and low energy costs. The adjustments would be based on the carbon emissions associated with production of each imported product, and would be intended to match the cost increase that would have occurred had the exporting country adopted a climate policy similar to that of the importing country. In this paper, we estimate how large such tariffs would be in practice, and then examine their economic and environmental effects using G-Cubed, a detailed multi-sector, multi-country model of the world economy. We find that the tariffs would be small on most traded goods, would reduce leakage of emissions reduction very modestly, and would do little to protect import-competing industries. We conclude that the benefits produced by border adjustments would be too small to justify their administrative complexity or their deleterious effects on international trade.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations

3. Achieving Comparable Effort through Carbon Price Agreements

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter Wilcoxen, and Adele Morris
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s 2007 Bali Plan of Action calls for the next agreement to ensure the "comparability of efforts" across developed countries while "taking into account differences in their national circumstances." Trends in national emissions and economic growth vary widely between countries, as do yearto-year fluctuations around those trends. This means that achieving similar reductions relative to historical base years can require very different levels of efforts in different countries. These differences have greatly hampered climate cooperation because it means that commitments that are similar in effort look inequitable. Further, divergent underlying trends make it difficult to know the effort that any particular commitment will require. The failure of the G-8 to set a base year for its agreed 80 percent reduction of emissions by 2050 illustrates the contention in formulating even collective targets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements

4. Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Adele Morris
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and Markets

5. Building on Kyoto: towards a realistic global climate agreement

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As a mechanism for controlling climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has not been a success. Over the decade from its signing in 1997 to the beginning of its first commitment period in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial countries subject to targets under the protocol did not fall as the protocol intended. Instead, emissions in many countries rose rapidly. It is now abundantly clear that as a group, the countries bound by the protocol have little chance of achieving their Kyoto targets by the end of the first commitment period in 2012. Moreover, emissions have increased substantially as well in countries such as China, which were not bound by the protocol but which will eventually have to be part of any serious climate change regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China

6. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia