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Begin New Search Topic Regional Integration Author Tinatin Akhvlediani

1. The Impact of Ukraine’s Accession on the EU’s Economy

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The groundwork for Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s single market was laid by the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (AA). A key component of the AA, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), paved the way for Ukraine’s gradual integration into the EU’s single market. Building on the DCFTA, Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s economy has significantly advanced since February 2022. In response to the invasion, the EU swiftly and temporarily but completely liberalised its market for Ukrainian goods through Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) and triggered the Temporary Protection Directive that has enabled over 4 million Ukrainian refugees to reside and work in the EU. With a continued swift trajectory, Ukraine’s integration is set to be much more comprehensive by the (yet unknown) time of accession. As this study outlines, the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EU brings some challenges but holds immense potential for mutual economic benefit. Free movement of goods. Full access under the ATM has not caused drastic changes in the EU’s imports or in the functioning of the single market in general. Yet, to avoid disruptions in the future, the accession treaty could include transition periods for full market access for Ukrainian goods in those EU Member States that may be vulnerable to a sharp increase in imports. Full trade liberalisation in services is expected to have more trade-easing effects, particularly for the EU, as it holds most of the reservations. Ukraine’s main EU partners in services trade are Germany and Poland, but services trade with Ukraine’s other major partners, including Estonia, has been steadily increasing since the implementation of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. Thus, trade absorption capacity should be sustainable. Free movement of capital. Given the underdevelopment of Ukraine’s financial sector and capital markets, legislative and policy alignment should serve as a solid foundation for financial deepening in the country. Eased movement of capital will make it significantly easier to conduct business and trade and commercial and non-commercial payments between Ukraine and the EU. Free movement of workers. As long as Ukrainian workers fit the labour demands of the receiving EU countries, they could fill the gap in the labour supply and complement rather than replace local workers. An enlarged EU as a global supplier. Ukraine could strengthen the EU’s position in critical materials and key agricultural products, as well as contribute to the EU technologically with its emerging ICT sector and increasing skills and know-how in IT and computer services. Ukraine’s reconstruction and sustainable recovery is a significant challenge that requires substantial financial support. Yet, by addressing these considerations with foresight and diligence, Ukraine’s accession to the EU could not only elevate Ukraine’s standing but could also strengthen the EU’s position on the global stage.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, Trade, Recovery, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2. The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Denis Cenusa, Veronika Movchan, and Artem Remizov
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 all three East European states associated with the EU – Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia – submitted applications to accede to the EU. In response, the European Commission published ‘Opinions’ in June, setting out in each case conditions that should be met for these applications to advance on the path towards membership. This paper reports on the first half-year of the work undertaken by the three states to meet these conditions. All three states have set in motion actions largely concerning the fundamental political and rule of law criteria for membership. In all cases there is much work in progress underway, with some conditions already met, and others at an earlier stage. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is possible that the majority of conditions will be met in the course of 2023. For Georgia there are still some more basic political obstacles to be overcome. The Commission is due to publish in October 2023 comprehensive evaluations of the preparedness of each of the three states, and in the case that the conditions are largely met, the EU should as a next step open up the formal accession negotiation process. It is also recommended that the EU reform by that time the accession process itself, notably by switching to qualified majority voting on the details of the procedures, and better still adopting a staged accession process that would assure structured incentives for overcoming the blockages in the present system as seen in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Georgia

3. Opinion on Moldova’s application for membership of the European Union

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Steven Blockmans, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper responds to Moldova’s request of 3 March 2022 to accede to membership of the European Union. The European Council meeting at Versailles on 10-11 March endorsed the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request. The present paper gives our opinion on the position that we would like to see the Commission take, namely that the EU should extend candidate status to Moldova. Progress in implementing the Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Moldova means that there is already a substantial degree of preparedness for the accession process. While Moldova has an important reform agenda to sustain, especially on the judiciary and rule of law, its democratic electoral processes have been of impressive quality since 2020. There is good coherence between the presidency, government and parliament on the reform and European integration agendas. Moldova’s common history, border and partly overlapping citizenship with EU Member State Romania is also relevant. With Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Moldova is next at risk on account of political, economic and security vulnerabilities. Recent explosions in Transnistria point to the possibility of this separatist region being instrumentalised by Russia to destabilise Moldova. These factors further underline the case for comprehensive EU support and the need for geostrategic clarity, which should be framed by an EU decision to extend candidate status to Moldova.
Topic:
Security, Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

4. Interpreting the Commission Opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and next steps for the European Council

Author:
Michael Emerson, Steven Blockmans, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Commission’s three Opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, if endorsed by the European Council as seems likely on 23-24 June, will mark a geopolitical turning point for Europe, bringing the three eastern European states into the EU’s enlargement process, albeit with a less advanced formulation for the time being for Georgia than for Ukraine and Moldova. A broad geopolitical advance is favourably viewed by most EU citizens and its main international partners. The European Council’s agenda is of even wider importance, with discussions due to take place on both possible reform of the existing enlargement process and the ideas advanced by Presidents Macron and Michel for a new form of political community that would aim to embrace the whole of Europe (except of course for Russia and Belarus).
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Regional Politics, and European Council
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia