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Begin New Search Political Geography Uganda Author Thomas Scurfield

1. Uganda’s Oil Refinery: Gauging the Government’s Stake

Author:
Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Uganda’s planned oil refinery will have several benefits for the country, including for its security of fuel supply and balance of payments. The refinery could be reasonably profitable, generating an internal rate of return of 13 percent in a baseline scenario. The government is planning to take a 40 percent stake but may ultimately pay a higher price for this equity than it expects. Even if it borrows to cover its upfront contribution to costs, it will need to divert around $330 million in present value terms from the national budget for loan repayments in the 2030s. This price will increase if downside risks, such as cost overruns or lower global oil prices, materialize. The government can take several steps to increase interest from other investors, including by reducing the risk of cost overruns, ensuring deregulated product prices continue, and providing less risky forms of state support such as tax incentives. These should reduce the need for the government to take a large stake.
Topic:
Oil, Regulation, and Investment
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

2. The Fiscal Regime for Uganda’s Mining Sector: A Need for Reform?

Author:
Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
There is growing discussion within Uganda about the need to increase the public benefits from the country’s mining sector. The government has declared its intention to enact a new fiscal regime for the sector. This has coincided with growing optimism that the country will resume large-scale mining after decades of only artisanal and small-scale activity. However, for Uganda’s potential to be realized, significant investment in exploration and development is necessary. This brief is a response to a request by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development to review the prevailing fiscal regime and inform the government’s approach to revising it. The design of the fiscal regime will likely have a significant effect on the ability of the country to attract the investment it needs. A critical element will be the regime’s stability. Frequent changes could reduce investors’ confidence that they will make a sufficient return on their investments, and thus deter investment. To reduce pressure from companies, the government or other stakeholders for future changes, Uganda will need to impose a tax burden that is neither too high nor too low.
Topic:
Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Uganda