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1. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Corruption Crossroads? Rising Perceptions of Graft Weaken Citizen Trust, Threaten Botswana’s Democratic Standing

Author:
Thomas Isbell and Batlang Seabo
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Corruption is widely considered one of the greatest impediments to sustainable development in African countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Corruption hinders macro-economic growth by weakening governance structures and diluting the positive effects of investments. At the micro level, corruption can trap the poorest, who are least likely to have alternatives to state provision of services, in a downward spiral (Peiffer & Rose, 2014). Botswana has long been considered one of Africa’s least corrupt countries and top performers in democratic practice and good governance. But while Transparency International’s (2019) Corruption Perceptions Index continues to rank Botswana as best on the continent, other observers have questioned this reputation (Mogalakwe & Nyamnjoh, 2017; Good, 2017). Allegations have focused on, among other things, high-level corruption in military procurement contracts under former President Ian Khama, close ties between members of the ruling party and the agricultural sector, and charges that well-connected suspects are often cleared by the courts (Motlogelwa & Civillini, 2016; Konopo, 2017; Good, 2017; Norad, 2011; Sebudubudu 2014; Gasennelwe, 2018). Recent corruption scandals have reached the highest levels of government, including the alleged looting of the National Petroleum Fund (Kgalemang, 2019; Motshegwa, Mutonono, & Mikazhu, 2019), and are still before courts of law (Shuma, 2020). In this paper we use Afrobarometer survey data to explore citizens’ perceptions of corruption in Botswana. We find that far more people see corruption increasing than decreasing and that perceptions of corruption in the Presidency and Parliament have risen sharply over the past decade. Fewer Batswana approve of how the government is handling the anti-corruption fight, and while many believe ordinary people can help fight corruption, a majority say that people risk retaliation if they report corruption to the authorities. A correlation analysis suggests that perceptions of corruption, especially in the Presidency, are strongly associated with less popular trust in public institutions and less satisfaction with democracy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

3. Tax Compliance Africans Affirm Civic Duty but Lack Trust in Tax Department

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In any economy, balancing expenditures, revenues, and debts is a delicate and often politicized task. Competing interests and priorities buffet those tasked with planning a viable and stable national budget. For any state, taxes raised from individuals and businesses are a central plinth supporting the provision of services, the maintenance of infrastructure, the employment of civil servants, and the smooth functioning of the state. In many African countries, however, tax evasion leaves states with major holes in their budgetary pockets. A 2015 report by the High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa cites tax abuse as an important contributor (along with laundering of criminal proceeds, corruption, and market abuse) to an estimated $30 billion to $60 billion per year that African governments lose to illicit financial flows, hampering growth through state investment, improvements in education and health services, and lower debt commitments abroad (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2015a, 2015b; Guardian, 2015). The 2016 leaks of the “Panama Papers” exposing tax evasion and fraud among many African and world leaders and their families further underlined the magnitude of the burden that tax evasion places on the continent (Kuo, 2016; Copley, 2016). Moreover, low tax compliance weakens the state’s ability to invest and develop. In 2005, only 15% of gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries derived from taxes, compared to 35% in developed countries (Fuest & Riedel, 2009). In some of the poorest countries, this proportion was 12%. Cobham (2005) estimates that low tax compliance in developing countries costs around $285 billion per year. For many Africans, however, not paying taxes may be less a matter of choice than of insufficient efficacy. As Aiko and Logan (2014) report, majorities of Africans say it is difficult to find out what taxes they’re supposed to pay and how their government uses tax revenues, and many see tax officials as corrupt. Ali, Fjeldstad, & Sjursen (2013) have found that not understanding how taxes are used is negatively correlated with tax compliance. They also point out that many Africans pay private or non-state providers for services that would commonly be provided by the state, which might also tend to depress tax compliance. This paper examines the views and experiences of ordinary Africans related to tax compliance. Afrobarometer survey data indicate that a strong majority of Africans see paying taxes as a civic duty that is important to a country’s development and should be fulfilled regardless of whether one is dissatisfied with government services. But low levels of public trust and high levels of perceived corruption in the tax department dampen citizens’ support for tax compliance.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Tax Systems, Bureaucracy, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Efficacy for Fighting Corruption: Evidence from 36 African Countries

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Corruption is a major obstacle to economic growth, human development, and poverty reduction (Mauro, 1995, 2004; Asiedu, 2006). The practice of demanding or expecting monetary or other benefits in exchange for preferential treatment has plagued the global South, and high-profile revelations of corruption in politics and business have shed light on the magnitude of the problem (Baker, 2016; McCool, 2015). The poor are most vulnerable to both the immediate effects of having to pay bribes or do favours and the longer-term impacts of hampered growth and weakened investment power (Hosken, 2017; Baker, 2016). Recent research by Peiffer and Rose (2014) and Justesen and Bjørnskov (2014) notes that poor citizens faced with official corruption have fewer means to seek out services from alternative providers and are thus forced to “play the game.” In recent years, headlines have pointed toward a stronger stance against corruption in Africa. In South Africa, Ghana, Sierra Leone, and other countries, scandals and government responses have placed corruption at center stage. In Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari’s winning ticket in 2015 included zero tolerance for corruption, and he has taken several steps to try to fight what he calls the “hydra-headed monster” (Maclean, 2016; Gaffey, 2016). In Tanzania, President John Magafuli won the 2015 election after a campaign denouncing corruption and misconduct among civil servants (Muvunyi, 2016). No doubt strong and committed leadership is necessary if meaningful progress is to be made in fighting corruption. But as with any attempt to change the status quo, it is equally important that the policy be accepted, “lived,” and enforced by ordinary citizens. To what extent do ordinary Africans feel they can combat corruption? What informs whether citizens believe they can play a role? Findings from Afrobarometer Round 6 (2014/2015) surveys suggest that education and material security contribute to building efficacy among ordinary citizens for the fight against corruption. But leadership also matters: Perceptions that elected leaders or officials are corrupt make citizens less likely to think they can make a difference.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Transparency, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa