Author: Takuji Kinkyo / Publishing Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London

Author:: Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

Author:: Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper analyzes Korea's exchange rate dynamics before and during the crisis of 1997-98 by estimating the long-run fundamental exchange rate and the associated error correction model. The analysis suggests that although Korea's exchange rate was substantially overvalued before the crisis, the subsequent exchange rate dynamics could not fully be accounted by the need to correct misalignments. It was found that there was a large deviation from the short-run fundamental value of exchange rates, indicating the presence of “overshooting of the overshooting equilibrium” during the crisis. The findings have important policy implications for crisis management in emerging market economies.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Korea

Author:: Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

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