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1. Trump and the IMF

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
So far, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has defied the odds in its relations with the administration of US President Donald Trump. In contrast to the administration’s at times stormy ride with some other international organizations and agreements, relations have been rather calm — even friendly — between the United States and the IMF. There has been no talk of cutting US funding to the IMF, no threat of pulling out of the organization, no statements casting aspersions on the IMF and no “tweet storms” on specific events involving the IMF. In fact, although not directly from President Trump, statements in support of actions or positions of the IMF have surfaced. Why has the IMF escaped the antagonism of the new administration, and can it continue to do so?
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Does the Level of Public Debt Matter?

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Research on links between the level of a country’s public debt and its broader economic developments has been heatedly debated in the economic literature. Two strands of the research stand out — one linking the level of debt to a country’s GDP growth rate and the other examining the debt level as an EWI of economic crises. As a broad generalization, research at the moment favors the view that high levels of debt are not a cause, in and of themselves, of low growth nor are they particularly good predictors of impending economic or even debt crises. In principle, the empirical findings have obvious implications for policy makers confronting the question of how to fashion policies (and fiscal policy in particular) when a country has a high debt burden. The IMF, as both a contributor to the literature and an adviser concerned with preventing or dealing with debt crises, has a particularly important stake in navigating the findings. Whether in its surveillance (routine annual advice to all member countries) or the construction of its lending programs to support countries in or near crisis, the IMF must answer the question “how much does the level of debt matter?” Despite the empirical research that casts doubt on the importance of debt, the level of debt figures prominently in the algebra of debt sustainability and the IMF’s real world policy advice. This policy brief examines the nexus of the relatively strong conclusions coming from the academic research and the IMF’s policy advice. It addresses the following question: given that the broad conclusion from the academic literature is that the level of debt itself is not systematically bad for growth or stability, why does the debt level seem to figure rather prominently in the IMF’s policy advice and conditionality?
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, GDP, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Ukraine and the IMF's Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This policy brief examines a number of poses key challenges in the evolution of a coherent role for the IMF in future crises.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Ukraine

4. Ukraine and the IMF's Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Against the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) fraught experience with crises where debt restructuring is needed, Ukraine’s recent restructuring agreement has been a success. Several factors — in particular, Ukraine’s geopolitical position and the composition of its creditors — facilitated official support for the deal. As these are unlikely to be replicated in future debt crises, the IMF still needs a revamping of its policies and approach in crises requiring debt restructuring. This policy brief examines a number of key challenges in the evolution of a coherent role for the IMF in future crises.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Ukraine