1. THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE ARCTIC
- Author:
- Sandro Knezović
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- The climate change at the global level has brought the new dynamics to the international relations in general and some regions in particular. This is so especially in the Arctic, where ice melting changes the geostrategic posture of the region, transforming it from a marginal zone with hostile climate into an area of growing strategic competition. ...the Arctic, where ice melting changes the geostrategic posture of the region, transforming it from a marginal zone with hostile climate into an area of growing strategic competition. Actually, the pace of ice melting, that was almost unthinkable a decade ago, is re�lective of the increasing geostrategic signi�icance of the Arctic. Namely, around 1 million square meters melt every year during the last decade, leaving the ice cap at less than half of its size from the mid-20th century. It is also estimated that almost a half of the Arctic permafrost (permanent ice) has already disappeared, which means that it is likely that the ocean will be seasonally ice-free in 20-30 years. Namely, growing global temperatures are actually doing nothing less than opening of a new ocean, a development unprecedented on Earth since the end of the Ice Age. This opens new perspectives in maritime transport and traveling, as well as access to estimated 20% of undiscovered global reserves of oil and gas. In the era of increased trade dynamics between Asia and Europe, as well as due to the fact that it is highly unlikely that alternative energy resources will prevail over hydrocarbons in the period to come, the Arctic is attracting the attention not only of littoral states but beyond. Rapid melting and possible intensi�ication of Arctic transport and drilling undoubtedly carry negative environmental consequences, which raises the issue of well proscribed and appropriately implemented system of regional governance in a changing global context. Apart from that, there are serious challenges to a scenario of energy-rich Arctic that is open for low-cost transport in the short and mid-term period, which have to be taken into account. Obviously, there are at least three essential elements that are determinant for the future of increasingly important Arctic in the context of wider international relations: transport, resources and governance. Taking a closer look at them, will surely help grasping the entire phenomena of the Arctic meltdown.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Arctic