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1. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

2. Pakistan Security Report 2021

Author:
Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
While the political and security situation in neighboring Afghanistan is still fluid, concerns are growing inside Pakistan about the possible fallout including in terms of increased insecurity, border tensions, and militant violence. For one, the developments in Afghanistan had already started influencing Pakistan’s militant landscape in 2021 as the year witnessed not only an increase in terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also an intensified terrorist violence by Baloch insurgent groups mainly in Balochistan. Meanwhile, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) province also emerged as one of the key actors of violence and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the year. While the Afghan Taliban find it difficult to convince the world to recognize their government and activate/unfreeze financial channels, they are also finding it increasingly hard to address the domestic challenges mainly those linked to governance, security, and intra-Afghan reconciliation. Despite their repeated promises to not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have yet not seriously considered to act against the TTP; except having facilitated the talks between Pakistani government and the TTP which have also not shown any successes so far. Nonetheless, there have been critical statements about Pakistan from some Taliban officials on multiple occasions about Pakistan’s democratic political system as well as fencing of the border by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan has eventually conveyed its concerns to the Afghan interim government about Afghan officials’ repeated efforts to damage the border fencing saying it was observing maximum restraint.
Topic:
Security, National Security, and International Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

3. Pakistan Security Report 2020

Author:
Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Ahmed Ali, and Mikail Shaikh
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
The year 2020 sustained the declining trend in the incidence of terrorist violence in Pakistan that has been ongoing since 2014. The statistics provided by Pakistan Security Report 2020 indicated a 36 percent decrease in the number of terrorist attacks this year, as compared to 2019; the number of people killed in these attacks also plummeted by 38 percent. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. While multiple factors have contributed, including continuous operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces, and some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan (NAP), in reducing terrorist violence at the tactical and operational levels, but the militant and sectarian groups have been becoming active again of late. Secondly, the underlying factors of religious extremism and persecution persist in the country, which could feed into terrorist violence and/or faith-based violence by individuals and mobs. While the incidence and level of terrorist violence can be measured, it is very hard to measure extremism and extremist trends in a society. Therefore, a reduction in terrorist violence should not be taken as a measure of a reduction in extremism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

4. Pakistan Security Report 2018

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Ihsan Ghani, Ali Sher Khalti, Farhan Zahid, Zia Ur Rehman, Najam U Din, Ershad Mahmud, and Muhammad Akba Notezai
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Despite a 29% decline in terrorist attacks in 2018, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups, which now includes ISIS’s local chapter, remains the most potent threat. They were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially in Balochistan. Two suicide attacks by a Baloch secessionist group in 2018 are alarming, but these should not forego attempts of reconciling them, which National Action Plan (NAP) clearly calls upon. Any attempt of mainstreaming banned outfits should be undertaken by a proper mechanism, so as not to be seen as excluding those already mainstreamed. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2018.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

5. Pakistan Security Report 2017

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Mumtaz Ali Khan, Shahzada Irfan Ahmed, Maaz Khan, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Despite a 16% decline in terrorist attacks in 2017, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups remained the most potent threat; they were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front. What has been quite alarming is the increasing footprints of Daesh, especially in Balochistan and northern Sindh, carrying out the deadliest attacks. These realities require concerted effort and a revision of the National Action Plan, country’s counter-terror plan for yet ambiguity remains about who is responsible for NAP. It will be much better that parliament provides oversight to not only NAP, help revise it in light of new realities, but also lay down criteria for mainstreaming militants – which drew debate in 2017. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2017.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

6. Pakistan Security Report 2016

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Zia Ur Rehman, Shahzada Zulfiqar, Ershad Mahmud, and Tahir Khan
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
While militant attacks declined in 2016, militant groups continue to remain a potent threat, with many widening their scope, narrowing their ideology, and evolving within the new spaces. These threats will linger on for long, unless the state moves beyond the hard approaches. In 2016, as with the preceding years, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remained the major actor of instability in the country, carrying out 106 attacks. 2016 also saw rise of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, with 66 attacks. Part of JA’s relative rise owes to the weakening of the TTP’s operational capability. This reality of how militant dynamics evolve should not be lost upon policy makers, note PIPS’s 2016 security report. Overall, the report notes, there has been a decline of 28% in terrorist attacks in 2016: 441 terrorist attacks took place in 57 districts/regions across Pakistan, claiming 908 lives. While suicide bombings have been receding, the reports note, 50% of the attacks in 2016 were targeted killing or shooting.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan