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41. Assessing Crown Prince Abdullah's 'Normalization' Plan

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 17, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia was quoted by New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman as saying that he had drafted a speech ready for delivery before next month's Arab summit, offering the "idea" of "full normalization of relations" with Israel in exchange for "full withdrawal from all the occupied territory, in accordance with U.N. resolutions, including in Jerusalem." As Friedman's column was headlined, this was an "intriguing signal" from the Saudi heir. Is it an important one, too?
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
New York, Middle East, and Arabia

42. Karine-A: The Strategic Implications of Iranian-Palestinian Collusion

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Revelations of Iranian-Palestinian collusion to smuggle fifty tons of weapons into the hands of Yasir Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) through the offices of Hizballah have profound strategic implications for the Middle East. For the Bush administration, responding appropriately to the Karine-A episode may have unpleasant repercussions for relations with key Arab states. However, failing to deal forthrightly with the shift in the region's tectonic plates represented by the smuggling affair is a self-defeating exercise in delusion.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

43. The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two: Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech

Author:
David Makovsky and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was ostensibly in response to evidence of official PA complicity in acts of violence and terrorism that had become too compelling to ignore. Yet, the very next paragraph orders that the specific sanction applied — downgrading the status of the PLO office in Washington — be waived, citing U.S. national security interests. The end result of this diplomatic two-step is a change in declarative U.S. policy (i.e., for the first time, a formal statement of PA noncompliance), but no change in effective policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

44. New Governments in Israel/Palestinian Authority: Collapse of Israeli Unity; Return of Arafat Old-Timers

Author:
David Makovsky and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel is reconfiguring its government and the Palestinian Authority (PA) has established a new cabinet this week. The Israeli-Palestinian violence of the last two years is unlikely to be transformed into a peace process as a result of this week's developments. This is due to a variety of factors ranging from the fact that PA chairman Yasir Arafat beat back efforts by reformers made over the summer and pointedly dropped his security chief who professed a commitment to reform. On the Israeli track, the new Israeli government's room to maneuver will be constrained by the lack of change on the Palestinian side, as well as a set of domestic and foreign considerations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

45. The Road Not to Be Taken: Assessing the Quartet Roadmap for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During his visit to Washington last week, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon was reportedly handed a forty-three-point document titled "Elements of a Performance-Based Road Map to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict." This document, the product of intensive consultation between the four members of the Middle East peace process Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations), offers the most ambitious and detailed plan yet to restart Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking after more than two years of terror and violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

46. Assessing Yasir Arafat's One-Hundred Day Plan for Reform

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As President George W. Bush was offering his vision for a post-Yasir Arafat Palestinian state two weeks ago, the Palestinian leader's cabinet was itself unveiling a "100-day plan" for reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). This plan was clearly designed to both respond to popular demands to fix the PA's broken or stillborn institutions as well as steer the reform process down a nonthreatening, Arafat-controlled course. While it offers promising elements of change, the plan is only likely to strengthen the unacceptable status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

47. Analyzing President Bush's New Framework for Mideast Peace

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President George W. Bush today tore up a generation of conventional wisdom by offering a bold, new approach that conditioned U.S. support for eventual Palestinian statehood on a new political leadership; a "working democracy"; and far-reaching security, judicial, constitutional, and economic reform. At the same time, he seemed to ask nothing of Israel to which even the current Israeli government has not, in theory at least, already agreed. Having articulated this strategy, the White House will now surely face sustained pressure from Arab and European partners — and perhaps even from some within the administration — to balance the equation by early certification of Palestinian reform and/or accelerated demands on Israel for a redeployment of troops and a freeze on settlements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

48. Crosstown Contrasts: The White House, The State Department, and Middle East Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The fracas over Secretary of State Colin Powell's interview with the London Arabic daily al-Hayat yesterday — the contents of which White House spokesman Ari Fleisher has pointedly refused to endorse — reflects a growing pattern of White House-State Department division on key Middle East issues, a damaging dynamic that will only be exorcised through clarity and resolution from the Oval Office.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, London, and Arab Countries

49. Where Reform and Peace Collide: Assessing the Palestinian Basic Law and Draft Consitution

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With this week's dispatch to the Middle East of Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns, the Bush administration has put its toe into the water of Palestinian reform. Success in this vital effort will require avoiding the trap of sham reform (such as a disproportionate focus on elections that might only confirm the worst excesses of Palestinian misrule) or effectively endorsing any particular Palestinian leader or would-be leader (thereby repeating the mistakes of the last decade). Instead, Washington should focus on the larger objectives at hand. At the core, there are two: 1) fostering the development of Palestinian national institutions based on democracy, transparency, accountability, fiscal propriety, and the rule of law; and 2) advancing the prospect for lasting peace and security between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ([PA] and its eventual successor, the State of Palestine). These two objectives may be complementary, though not necessarily so; in fact, in certain circumstances, they may be contradictory. Indeed, in approaching the Palestinian reform process, U.S. officials should not only highlight the importance of structural change but also keep in mind the pitfalls of promoting (or acquiescing in) certain kinds of "reform" that may inhibit, handicap, or prevent real peacemaking from taking hold. A review of two key documents — #151; the Basic Law governing the PA until the conclusion of the current "transitional period" and the PLO-endorsed draft constitution for the future State of Palestine — #151; reveals several areas where U.S. officials need to take particular notice as they discuss various reform ideas with Palestinian leaders.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

50. From Armed Struggle to Reform: A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda are armed struggle, guided reform, and preparation for elections. No mention was made of the prospects for renewed negotiations or the proposed regional peace conference.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries