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1. Opting for Second Best in Libya?

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The looming stalemate in the Libyan conflict is likely to lead to more civilian casualties, a de facto separation of Libya, the under-use of the country's energy resources, and an increase in illegal activities due to the legal and governance vacuum in the country. In addition, it risks denting NATO's credibility as a security provider. To break the stalemate, the coalition is leaning towards intensifying military operations and/or arming the rebels. Both imply a number of risks and political costs. A way to contain such risks and costs would be for NATO and its partners to re-calibrate the mission so that, alongside military action, the mission would foresee also a national reconciliation process, mediated by an international team. Linking military operations to a credible plan for Libya's political future would improve the odds for Gheddafi's regime to collapse.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Libya, Arabia, and United Nations

2. The Italian Government and NATO's New Strategic Concept

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conservative report on NATO's new Strategic Concept, written by a group of experts chaired by Madeleine Albright, suits Italy's status-quo oriented agenda. As long as NATO does not shift its focus away from Europe, the renewed emphasis on expeditionary capabilities is acceptable to the Italian government. The Italians could also find comfort in the report's insistence on calibrating NATO ambitions to its actual resources and capacities. Italy could insist on making the advantages of NATO-EU cooperation more explicit, as this would favour EU defence integration, which in turn may help save money and maintain acceptable military standards. The section on NATO's relationship with Russia is the part of the Albright report with which Italy is perhaps most uncomfortable, as it seems to perpetuate NATO's ambiguity towards Russia. In the final analysis, assuming that the Albright report is a credible preview of the next Strategic Concept, the Italian government seems to have little reason to loose sleep over it.
Topic:
NATO and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Italy

3. Combining Realism with Vision Options for NATO's new Strategic Concept

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Elaborating a Strategic Concept is a delicate undertaking which implies a good deal of resolve, far - sightedness, and realism. Allies should neither search for a new North Star nor give in to the temptation of de facto acceptance of the status quo as the optimal solution. Instead, they should make choices reflecting a synthesis, not just a list, of their security priorities. In particular, they should consider the future of the allied deterrence and defence strategies in a security environment characterised by significant political and technological changes, including by thinking about steps towards withdrawing US nuclear weapons in Europe and creating an integrated missile defence system; learn the lessons from the Balkans and Afghanistan and accord greater priority to stabilisation than to rapid reaction capabilities; recognise that compromises will be inevitable if they are serious about considering Russia as a partner, and start by pausing for a while with enlargement. Allies should also make it clear that they have no ambition of turning NATO into a world gendarme and shift towards cooperative crisis management.
Topic:
NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, and Europe