Author: Raz Zimmt / Publishing Institution: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Some two months after the outbreak of the most significant wave of protest in Iran since the 2009 riots, the Iranian authorities are endeavoring to bring the situation back to normal, though various pockets of protest are still discernible. While the wave of protest began to wane already a week after it broke out, demonstrations on a limited scale are ongoing in various parts of the country, mainly concerning wage withholding and the collapse of pension and saving funds. There are also some local instances of defiance against the regime, including anti-establishment graffiti in the public domain, strikes, torched banks, and defaced posters with the Supreme Leader’s picture.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: One year after his reelection as President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani faces severe challenges at home and abroad. It is more difficult than ever for him to keep his promises to the public, especially his promises to improve the economic situation and expand individual freedom. His freedom of action is restricted by the conservatives controlling most of the power centers in Iran, and criticism of him by his traditional rivals on the conservative right, among the religious establishment, and in the Revolutionary Guards, as well as by his reformist supporters, is growing. The difficulties facing the President not only threaten his ability to ease the distress among Iranians; they threaten his political future in advance of the anticipated succession struggle for the post of Supreme Leader. Moreover, his failure is liable to exacerbate the public despair that is already evident in the ongoing wave of protest in the streets of Iran and further erode the legitimacy of the entire regime.
Topic:: Reform, Conservatism, Legitimacy, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The new government proposed by President Hassan Rouhani is the first significant evidence of his intentions, priorities, and limits of power. While forming his government, the President was forced to balance the opposing forces in the Iranian political system. The composition of the government reflects his wish to avoid open conflict with the religious establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and his intention to place the economic crisis at the top of his government's priorities, even at the expense of civic reforms. His decision to ignore calls for reforms and the failure to include women and minorities in the government have already sowed disappointment and drawn criticism from broad sections of the public that supported him in the last elections. However, public support depends to a large extent on actual policies and success in realizing promises, mainly in the area of the economy. Putting economic matters at the top of the agenda for his new government requires cooperation with other centers of power in Iran, above all, the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards. This means that with regard to foreign affairs and security issues no significant changes in Iranian policy are expected.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Iran

Author:: Sima Shine, Raz Zimmt, and Anna Catran
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The tension between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards that was evident during the presidential election campaign has intensified in recent weeks and evolved into a confrontation that is unprecedented in its openly severe nature. The current confrontation surrounds two main issues: Iran’s missile strike against Islamic State targets in Syria, and President Rouhani’s criticism of the Revolutionary Guards’ involvement in the economy.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Iran

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